AFL over/under projections for 2019: How many games will your club win?
With AFL clubs returning to pre-season training this week, the countdown to the 2019 season is in full swing. Who will rise above expectations and who will crash? Check out your club’s projected record for this year.
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With clubs returning to pre-season training this week, the countdown to the 2019 season is in full swing.
But just how many games will your club win this year?
TAB has released its projected wins for all 18 teams, and it’s not pretty reading for the Gold Coast Suns.
The Suns’ total of 4.5 is clearly the lowest of any club across the past two seasons.
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And while there is potential for improvement at Carlton, the bookies aren’t buying a charge up the ladder for the Blues.
Carlton’s win line is set at 6.5, which would have them finishing second last on the ladder.
At the other end of the scale, Richmond has been handed the highest line for 2019 at 14.5.
Who will rise above expectations and who will crash? Gilbert Gardiner, Chris Cavanagh and Liam Twomey look at every team.
ADELAIDE
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Just couldn’t be as bad as last season and with the benefit of a softer draw due to decline should be ready to surge back into finals contention.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Have only lost two players from their 2017 Grand Final side in two off-seasons since and have a combined four games against Gold Coast and St Kilda. Easy Peasy.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong for the Crows last season and they still won 12 games. A full season of Brad Crouch, Tex Walker and Rory Sloane, plus no pre-season camp, should lead to an easy over.
BRISBANE
TAB Over/Under: 9.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 5
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
The Lions have done a lot right but might need one more season to really hit their straps.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Lachie Neale arrival negates Dayne Beams loss. Young side on the right path, but doubling their win tally from 2018 seems a stretch.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
The Lions won five games last year and lost their best player in Dayne Beams. Will Lachie Neale be enough to fill the void left by the goalkicking midfielder and leader? They would need to double their 2018 win total to clear this mark. That is a big ask.
CARLTON
TAB Over/Under: 6.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 2
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Went bang in the trade period and again at the draft but can’t help but feel Sam Docherty’s (ACL) cruel setback alone will rob the Blues of 2-3 potential wins. Adelaide will definitely be watching this closely.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Sam Docherty injury a massive factor here. While the list is starting to look better, this is a side which has only won eight games in the past two years combined.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
The Sam Docherty loss is a bad one for the Blues. But this was a high number before that. This team won two games last year and, while their recruits are solid, there is no readymade A-grade talent coming in.
COLLINGWOOD
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 15
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Lock them in Eddie. Absolute morals to win 14+ games next season.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Have gone from the easiest fixture in 2018 to the hardest fixture in 2019, according to Champion Data. However, should get over the line with the arrival of Dayne Beams and a host of senior players expected to return from long-term injury.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
A tough one for the Magpies. Will they be highly motivated after their Grand Final heartbreak? Or will they go the Adelaide path of 2017/18 and struggle after making the big dance? If they have better injury luck, they should get to 15 wins.
ESSENDON
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
The coulda, should, woulda Bombers must — just must — make the eight in 2019. No excuses, just do it.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Bombers won 10 of their last 14 games in 2018 after the horror start. Dylan Shiel comes into the midfield and Joe Daniher should return to give the forward line a boost. Serious value.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
In 2018 the Bombers won two of their first eight games. Joe Daniher played just seven matches and the club had one win and five losses in games decided by 16 points or less. And with all that going wrong, they still won 12 games! How does this team not hit the over next year?
FREMANTLE
TAB Over/Under: 9.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 8
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
The eight might be a bridge too far but expect the Dockers to improve (eight wins last season) after a nice trade period despite the loss of Lachie Neale.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Finally have the key forward they have spent years searching for in Jesse Hogan, who should steady the ship in attack. Eight wins in 2018, so 10-plus in 2019 easily achievable.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Don’t be fooled by Lachie Neale’s exit. The Dockers got better in the off-season with Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb coming in and the club will see even more improvement from Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw. They’ve also still got one of the best home ground advantages in the business.
GEELONG
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 13
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Will be touch and go but someone has to miss out from last season. Scratched out 13 wins last season and could find it harder again with the likes of North Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide breathing down their necks.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Relatively kind fixture, a quality midfield and nine games at Kardinia Park should ensure the Cats sneak into the top-eight once again.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Over their last 50 games at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong’s record is 43-7. In 2019 the Cats will play nine ‘home’ games there. It’s hard to see them not going over with a fixture win like that.
GOLD COAST
TAB Over/Under: 4.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 4
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Let’s be honest, the Suns might need three seasons to cover this line.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Money for jam. Might pinch a game or two at best. Focus will all be on development and getting games into kids in 2019.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
Probably the easiest under of 2019, this team could go through the season winless. It is almost impossible to see them winning five games.
GWS
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 13
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Lost two Ferraris and a vintage Porsche in the off-season but Leon Cameron’s garage still has enough horsepower to get the job done.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Reckon the Giants just sneak into the top-8, which would require at least 12 wins, despite a few losses over the off-season including Dylan Shiel and Rory Lobb. Have won 13 or more games each of the past three years.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
They lost some talent in the off-season but there are still plenty of A-graders up at the Giants. They had shocking injuries last year and won 13 games. Give the likes of Toby Greene and Josh Kelly a clean run at it and let the wins pile up.
HAWTHORN
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 15
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Are you brave enough to knock an Alastair Clarkson coached team? The wizard Clarkson will do what Port Adelaide couldn’t and get the best out of Chad Wingard more often, that alone is worth wins on the boards.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Well done to them, but the Hawks over-achieved in 2018. Not an easy fixture for 2019 and have a number of regular senior players now well over 30 years old. Expect them to miss the top-eight.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
The Hawks overachieved during the home and away season and what happened in September was a true indication of where this club is really at. They are good but come up just short against the best. It’s tough to see them cracking 13 wins in 2019.
MELBOURNE
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 14
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Left a few wins in the bag last year so should be a lot better for the experience with another pre-season under their belts.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Scored 14 wins in the 2018 home-and-away season and then went on to easily beat Geelong and Hawthorn in the first two weeks of September. Jesse Hogan is a loss in attack, but Steven May and Jake Lever are huge additions at the defensive end. Team on the rise.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The finals curse has been lifted for the Demons. This club won 14 games last year even though they dropped four games by 10 points or less. Lock them in for an over.
NORTH MELBOURNE
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Will be thereabouts again the Kangaroos after exploding out of the pack last season. Map nicely after a strong offseason but find themselves in a battle royale for positions 6-10. Absolute log jam.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Like the direction the Kangaroos are heading in, but a tough fixture does not work in their favour.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
The Roos caught some rival clubs napping in 2018. That won’t happen again. Despite the fact they have beefed up their list, they are still lacking an out and out top-5 superstar. I think they’ll be right on 11.
PORT ADELAIDE
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
No method to madness but there’s only room for one contender from South Australia in my books. Lost a lot of firepower at the trade table.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Don’t rate the Power as highly as some people. Losing six of their last seven games in 2018 when they had been in serious finals contention was a concern.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
Are the Power coming or going in 2019? It is tough to know after the club went from topping up its list to heading to the draft. They won 12 games last year but went 1-7 in their final eight games. The spells under.
RICHMOND
TAB Over/Under: 14.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 18
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
One that got away in 2018? You bet. The Tigers are still one of the best one or three teams in the competition and should have 15 wins covered quite easily.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
Sixth-easiest fixture according to Champion Data and 13 games at their favoured MCG. Lock it in.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Are the Tigers going to be four losses worse than they were this year? Even if it takes Tom Lynch some time to mix with his new teammates, it’s hard to see this team not winning at least 15 games.
ST KILDA
TAB Over/Under: 8.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 4
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Hard to trust the Saints after last season. St Kilda coach Alan Richardson has the cattle to win 9+ games but after four successes last season it appears a bridge too far despite the arrival of Dan Hannebery.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Coming off just four wins in 2018. Dan Hannebery addition should help, as well as an easy draw, but five extra wins looks unlikely.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
They’ve added Dan Hannebery, who will no doubt give the Saints some class and leadership. But is he worth five extra wins? They will have a soft draw but 2020 will be the year the Saints rise.
SYDNEY
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 14
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
It feels like every year we predict the demise of the Swans and end up with eggs on our collective faces but with Buddy Franklin and Josh Kennedy a year older and Hannebery out, it spells a tough campaign on the horizon. The Swans had the worst percentage of any team in the top eight last season … vulnerable.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Tipping the Swans to miss finals for the first time since 2009. Dan Hannebery gone and a host of ageing players whose best football is behind them.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
There were some serious warning signs for the Swans at the end of last season. From 10-3 they went 4-6 and limped into finals before getting belted by the Giants. But I’m not ready to give up on the Bloods culture yet. Win or lose, you’ve got to be on the over.
WEST COAST
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 16
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Easy money. Won 11 of 14 at Perth Stadium last year alone so just need to break even on the road to book a place in September again.
Chris Cavanagh says: OVER
The reigning premier isn’t going anywhere. Got as good a spine as any team in the comp, especially when you add Andrew Gaff back in. Plus, very hard to beat at Optus Stadium where they have 12 games for a start.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
How can you possibly take the under? Not only did the Eagles win the flag, they dealt with plenty of adversity along the way. The home ground advantage alone is reason enough to think 16 or 17 wins are in-play.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
TAB Over/Under: 9.5
GAMES WON IN 2018 — 8
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Is it even possible to have a two-year hangover? Might not win too many more but 10-13 wins should be the benchmark for the Dogs.
Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER
Hard to see where any significant improvement is coming from after an eight-win 2018 campaign, during which the Dogs were the fourth-lowest scoring team in the competition.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
If the Dogs had landed a big fish like Chad Wingard, you could think about taking the over. But after eight victories in 2018, it’s hard to see them winning more than that, even with Tom Liberatore returning.
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