AFL live ladder: Where every club is placed on the run home
Hawthorn needs to defeat reigning premier West Coast in Perth and have other unlikely results go its way to play finals. But with Alastair Clarkson at the helm, can we really rule the Hawks out? LADDER + RUN HOME
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As the race for the top eight and top four goes down to the wire, follow every ladder move — and our finals predictions — across the weekend.
Geelong lost top spot on the ladder after Brisbane snatched an incredible one-point win at the Gabba and will host Carlton in Round 23.
Normally that’s an easy task, but the Blues under new coach David Teague have found their mojo and a loss could push the Cats out of the top four all together — highly unlikely, given their huge percentage advantage over Collingwood, but stranger things have happened.
Richmond is back in the top four after an epic come-from-behind win against West Coast.
But the Tigers still need to defeat Brisbane next week to guarantee the double chance.
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The Bulldogs have moved into eighth spot after smashing Greater Western Sydney and now need to beat Adelaide next week to secure their finals spot.
Luke Beveridge’s team can now finish as high as seventh — if Essendon lose to Collingwood on Friday night.
Seven days after being humiliated by the Bulldogs, Essendon defeated the Dockers in Perth to lock in a return to September.
Collingwood was in the top four overnight after a big win against Adelaide, and can still finish there if it overcomes Essendon in a massive Friday night blockbuster and the Lions knock off Richmond — or Hawthorn upsets the Eagles.
Inspired by Jarryd Roughead’s farewell home game, the Hawks can still make the finals — but they need PLENTY to go right.
CHRIS CAVANAGH’S ROUND 23 PREDICTIONS
Collingwood d Essendon
Sydney d St Kilda
North Melbourne d Melbourne
Geelong d Carlton
Gold Coast d GWS Giants
West Coast d Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs d Adelaide
Richmond d Brisbane Lions
Port Adelaide d Fremantle
THE RUN HOME
What the final rounds look like for top eight contenders.
1. BRISBANE LIONS 64 120.9%
Rd 23 Richmond (MCG), Sunday 3.20pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 1st
LOWEST FINISH: 4th
CHRIS CAVANAGH: Momentum is building for the Lions, who have now won nine games in a row. But they face a mighty challenge this week, having not beaten Richmond since 2009 and having not won at the MCG since 2014.
JON ANDERSON: You never flirt with form, but do the Lions require a loss going into September? Hugh McCluggage has claims as the best pure wingman in the game, while Jarryd Lyons is alongside any experienced recruit this year. Charlie Cameron may just be the hardest forward match-up in the game.
2. GEELONG 60 132.4%
Rd 23 Carlton (GMHBA Stadium) Saturday, 4.35pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 1st
LOWEST FINISH: 5th
CC: Expect the Cats to bounce back against Carlton, having lost just two games in two years at Kardinia Park. Their strong percentage set up earlier in the year will ensure they pick up the minor premiership if they win and the Lions lose.
JA: Early in the season the Cats had really even team performances. Now too many are not having enough influence. But losing in Brisbane by a point suggests they are not far away. It all comes down to how the top four plays out, or possibly top six.
3. WEST COAST 60 115.7%
Rd 23 Hawthorn (Perth Stadium), Saturday, 8.10pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 1st
LOWEST FINISH: 5th
CC: The Eagles’ forward line is as potent as any in the competition. Adam Simpson’s side should have no problem beating Hawthorn in Perth and looks primed for another big assault on September.
JA: A worrying reliance on scoring from stoppages rather than turnovers. As for the return of Nic Naitanui, the club believes he’s a genuine chance for first week of the finals. And that might just be the spark the Eagles require because they have been good rather than brilliant most of the year.
4. RICHMOND 60 112.5%
Rd 23 Brisbane Lions (MCG), Sunday 3.20pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 1st
LOWEST FINISH: 5th
CC: The Tigers stamped themselves as the team to beat this year yesterday. The win against West Coast was their eighth in a row. Bring a performance like that and they’ll beat Brisbane and lock in a top-four finish.
JA: Do you reckon Dusty heard any of the noise about Elliot Yeo being the so-called best player in the game? If he did, he silenced it in emphatic fashion. The Tigers are now hoping for Cats to finish top so they can get another “home” final. Could only happen in the AFL.
5. COLLINGWOOD 56 117.8%
Rd 23 Essendon (MCG), Friday 7.50pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 2nd
LOWEST FINISH: 5th
CC: Will be two quite different looking sides from when the Magpies last met Essendon on Anzac Day due to some key injuries for both teams. But Collingwood made a statement against the Adelaide on the weekend and should beat the Bombers for a fourth time in two years.
JA: Too many have forgotten the pain this group went through last year, and its desire to correct it. Perfect timing for Jamie Elliott to wind the clock back to his 2017 form. Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson should be back for the first week of the finals. So look out.
6. GWS GIANTS 48 116.5%
Rd 23 Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), Saturday 7.25pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 6th
LOWEST FINISH: 8th
CC: The Giants are clearly feeling the pinch with injuries — but it has been more than that the past few weeks. Alarm bells are ringing after a second hefty loss in as many games to the Bulldogs — GWS’ fifth loss in eight games.
JA: The Giants went in with arguably eight of their best 22 unavailable. You suspect the window for some of the long-term Giants has closed, and even with their best line-up they are well short of the 2016 side that came so close. And they have lost players who openly admit they want the spotlight of Melbourne.
7. ESSENDON — 48, 95.8%
Rd 23 Collingwood (MCG), Friday, 7.50pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 6th
LOWEST FINISH: 8th
CC: Will be up against it coming back from Perth on a six-day break when they face the Magpies on Friday night. Will be a wait and see on how skipper Dyson Heppell’s foot injury pulls up from the weekend. The Bombers’ best is good enough, but it’s hard to trust them right now.
JA: The Bombers got the run back with Adam Saad, Conor McKenna and Dylan Shiel. To make finals after the past fortnight is a surprise to many. Michael Hurley’s determination to get back so quickly from a serious shoulder injury, and play well, sets an example that can only be infectious.
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS ADELAIDE — 44, 105.6%
Rd 23 Adelaide (Ballarat), Sunday, 1.10pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 6th
LOWEST FINISH: 11th
CC: Yesterday’s fighting win over GWS was a sixth victory in eight games for the Bulldogs who are surging towards September and have now taken the scalps of Geelong, Essendon and the Giants. Eighth spot is theirs to lose — but you’d back them in to beat a struggling Adelaide in Ballarat.
JA: The Dogs have assembled a very well balanced group with some evolving key forwards, a defence that caters for all sized and some ball magnets. But in terms of another miracle year, not sure they are ready yet, particularly up forward. Either way, a darn good side to watch.
9. HAWTHORN — 40, 106.6%
Rd 23 West Coast (PS), Saturday, 8.10pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 8th
LOWEST FINISH: 12th
CC: The win over Gold Coast kept the Hawks in with a mathematical chance of making finals. But they need to beat West Coast in Perth and rely on Adelaide beating Western Bulldogs. Unlikely.
JA: Appropriately Jarryd Roughead went out marking the ball at high points, just as he had 15 years ago when Gary Buckenara drafted him. Football is rarely a theatre for sentiment, but the Roughead show was an extremely enjoyable part of a one-sided game.
10. ADELAIDE — 40, 103.0%
Rd 23 Western Bulldogs (Ballarat), Sunday, 1.10pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 8th
LOWEST FINISH: 13th
CC: Looks like they will simply be making up the numbers if they do finish top-eight after being belted by a depleted Collingwood on the weekend. The Crows have now won only two of their past eight games. The Bulldogs should be far too good for them in Ballarat.
JA: The Crows may be lucky their AFL neighbours are just as erratic as it takes some of the focus away from what has been an extremely poor winter’s work. The group the Crows have don’t cut it when it matters most, but some players have trading credits, so watch for some serious activity.
11. PORT ADELAIDE — 40, 103.0%
Rd 23 Fremantle (AO), Sunday, 4.40pm
HIGHEST FINISH: 8th
LOWEST FINISH: 13th
CC: Had a game to forget against North Melbourne on the weekend and you never know what you’re going to get with the Power this year. However, you’d expect it to topple Fremantle at Adelaide Oval to give it a chance to feature in September.
JA: There is a fundamental problem between the players’ ears given such extremes in performance levels. Travis Boak and Dan Houston are two who continue to turn up, but Port doesn’t boast too many others who play well most weeks. A side that can’t be trusted when it matters.
THE REST
12. NORTH MELBOURNE — 36, 99.1%
Rd 23 Melbourne (Hobart)
JA: Just what Rhyce Shaw required, a big win against the odds to prove the message and system hold up. Nick Larkey and Jy Simpkin are exciting for the future, although the Roos’ list profile is more one that should be challenging now, meaning they need more kids coming through.
13. FREMANTLE — 36, 94.0%
Rd 23 Port Adelaide (AO)
JA: You start to think the Dockers are OK, but the reality suggests they are two really good players off it, and a hard summer’s work on their disposal and decision-making. On a positive, there is plenty of improvement in the kids and Jesse Hogan could be the key.
14. ST KILDA — 36, 85.4%
Rd 23 Sydney (SCG)
JA: The Saints will finish with 10 wins if they beat Sydney. That would be respectable, although they are around that mark too often. Would love to see the players challenge each other, and that can come from Dan Hannebery, who understands what it takes through training standards.
15. SYDNEY — 28, 94.9%
Rd 23 St Kilda (SCG)
JA: Will be interesting to see if the soft-tissue injuries that have haunted Buddy will now define the final chapter of his career. The Swans have some veterans but have transitioned better than most. They have kept playing the kids, which will pay big-time benefits down the track.
16. CARLTON — 28, 87.2%
Rd 23 Geelong (GMHBA)
JA: David Teague has overseen impressive development of kids, and Paddy Dow and Lochie O’Brien are looking increasingly comfortable. Just as importantly, he has his older group playing near peak levels as the enjoyment level has risen.
17. MELBOURNE — 20, 77.9
Rd 23 North Melbourne (Hobart)
JA: Just a rabble. Everyone at that club needs to ask themselves if they are the right person for their role, from the president to the CEO to the co-captains to the door persons. Many will indeed be fine employees, but quite clearly change is required.
18. GOLD COAST — 12, 61.6%
Rd 23 GWS (Metricon)
JA: Next season will be the Suns’ 10th in the AFL, a decade largely of incredibly expensive irrelevance. But there are signs, albeit not blindingly obvious, that they could be getting their structure right off the field. Stuart Dew appeals as part of their long-term plans.