AFL fixture favourable to West Coast, Sydney and Adelaide while Richmond set for tougher draw in 2018

BRACE yourselves, Richmond fans. The AFL fixture is not far away and it’s not going to be pretty for the Tigers after their dominant, flag-winning 2017 season.

Dustin Martin in action in the 2017 AFL Grand Final.

INTERSTATE clubs West Coast, Sydney and Adelaide have been given armchair rides by the AFL’s imperfect fixturing over the past three years while new premiers Richmond can expect a much tougher draw in 2018.

Ahead of the release of next season’s fixture this month, a Herald Sun analysis has uncovered how big an impact fixtures can have on a club’s fortunes.

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According to Champion Data draw difficulty ratings, Richmond’s 37-year premiership drought came to an end after it received the second-easiest draw this year, while the Western Bulldogs’ Grand Final triumph in 2016 came after it was handed the seventh-easiest fixture that season.

This year’s minor premier Adelaide had the sixth-easiest fixture while Sydney finished top of the table in 2016 with the ninth-hardest fixture. Fremantle finished on the top rung in 2015 with the eighth-hardest draw.

Adelaide’s dream fixture this year came despite the Crows finishing fifth on the ladder and making a semi-final in 2016.

Even though the Swans finished in the top four in each of the three seasons from 2014-16, Sydney’s hardest draw has been ranked sixth by the AFL’s official statisticians, with the other two years coming in at ninth.

However, West Coast takes the cake for having the best run, the second-easiest draw propelling the Eagles to a Grand Final in 2015 and the club’s draw difficulty ranked 10th in each of the two seasons since, bringing further finals appearances.

Dustin Martin and the Tigers can expect a much tougher fixture next season. Picture: Michael Klein

The bad news for Richmond is the premier can expect a much tougher draw next season.

Hawthorn was slapped with the third and sixth-hardest fixtures in 2015 and 2016 respectively after its premierships and the Western Bulldogs copped the fourth-hardest draw this year, finishing 10th as a result.

Teams with draws ranked among the five hardest have made finals just six times from 15 attempts over the past three years, while sides with draws ranked sixth to 10th have made the top eight on 11 occasions from 15 attempts.

The AFL introduced a “weighted” fixture model ahead of the 2014 season to govern the five double-up matches in the 22-round season, with clubs grouped into three pools of six based on their finishing positions the previous year.

There have been calls for a fairer 17-5 fixture to be introduced — in which every team plays each other once and then plays the other five teams in their third of the ladder — however clubs rejected that proposal earlier this year.

The AFL has confirmed next year’s season will start on Thursday, March 22 and conclude with the Grand Final on Saturday, September 29.