AFL Finals Week 2: the burning questions ahead semi-final weekend

WEEK 1 of the AFL Finals certainly delivered. Week 2 promises more of the same. We look at the big questions ahead of this weekend’s matches.

Jake Stringer and Ben Stratton battle. Picture: Michael Klein

WEEK 1 of the AFL Finals certainly delivered.

Week 2 promises more of the same as four teams battle for a place in the preliminary final and keep their premiership hopes alive.

We look at the big questions ahead of this weekend’s matches.

HAWTHORN v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Second semi-final, Friday, September 16 at the MCG, 7.50pm

HAWKS

1. WILL THE SEPTEMBER TAX FINALLY COST THE HAWKS?

LET’S call it the September tax. It has been five long seasons dripping in glory for Hawthorn, and it might finally catch up with them under the duress of yet another bruising final. On Friday night the Hawks will run out for their 18th September encounter since 2010 and club legend Dermott Brereton said on Saturday that it must be taking a toll. These Hawks have effectively played an extra season of fierce, finals footy and a similar record eventually took down ageing bodies at the Brisbane Lions 12 years ago. Interestingly, the last team to sneak into the top four on the back of a bundle of tight victories — Geelong in 2014 — fell out in straight sets. One former club great noted at halftime of Friday night’s epic against Geelong that the loser could struggle in a semi-final given the tough footy being played and a shorter turnaround than the Western Bulldogs. Brilliant runner Billy Hartung, ice man James Sicily and premiership player Will Langford are in the frame and would add a pinch of freshness.

James Sicily celebrates after the siren in Round 3. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

2. OR IS THE ROAD TRAVELLED BEFORE EASIER TO WALK AGAIN?

THE parallels to last year are uncanny. A Friday night semi-final against the seventh-placed team fresh from celebrating a rare September victory on the road. Even the prize is similar — a ticket to an interstate preliminary final. It’s a damn hard road to premiership glory, but Hawthorn walked it with a strut last year and that must breed confidence. Rewind 12 months and Adelaide was all the rage and Hawthorn blew them off the park with eight first-quarter goals. The important stat for Friday night is this — under the current finals system only five out of 64 top-four teams have failed to play off for a place in the Grand Final. But premature exits are becoming a trend, with three of those five occurring in the past two years.

BULLDOGS

1. CAN THE DOGS EMULATE THEIR HAWTHORN BLUEPRINT?

REWIND to the third quarter in Round 3 and the Western Bulldogs outplayed Hawthorn in a fashion rarely sighted. The Dogs cracked in and won the contested possession count by a season-high 28 disposals and dominance on the scoreboard followed. They morphed a 32-point deficit from the second term into a 19-point lead at the last break as Caleb Daniel faded the influence of his role model, Sam Mitchell. The heartbreaking loss was secondary to Bob Murphy’s knee injury sustained in the dying seconds, but it taught the young Dogs important lessons about close games. They are 5-0 in matches decided by 10 points or less since.

Marcus Bontempelli in action against West Coast. Picture: Daniel Wilkins

2. WILL SUPERSTAR MARCUS BONTEMPELLI MINT HIMSELF AS A SEPTEMBER HERO?

THE Bont established himself as a big-moment star this season, but was below his lofty best in the west last week. With Mark Hutchings applying a close tag, the Brownlow chance was restricted in the first three terms before responding to finish with one goal from 21 disposals. You get the feeling a Friday night final at the MCG is the fitting stage for the baby All-Australian who wants to redeem a couple of set-shot misses from last year’s September defeat. Interestingly, Bontempelli has played Hawthorn twice and finished with only five and seven kicks. He will have one new midfield mate with Toby McLean and Lukas Webb withdrawn from the VFL yesterday and Lin Jong’s place in the team up for grabs.

THE ODDS

MATCH

Hawthorn $1.45

Western Bulldogs $2.85

FLAG

Hawthorn $6.50

Western Bulldogs $17

EARLY CALL: Western Bulldogs by 11 points

All-Australian defender Easton Wood might have to introduce himself to Luke Hodge when they toss the coin. The Dogs skipper hasn’t played Hawthorn since 2011 and shapes as a key inclusion from the Round 3 thriller given his aerial dominance and capacity to intercept and repel from halfback.

SYDNEY v ADELAIDE

First Semi Final, Saturday, September 17 at the SCG, 7:25pm

SWANS

1. HOW DO SYDNEY BOUNCE BACK AFTER THEIR GWS STINKER?

By going back to what has worked for them despite putting their game style to the test against their AFL kryptonite. The Swans are the no. 1 defence in the AFL and go up against Adelaide, the no. 1 attacking side. The Swans concede only 68 points, Adelaide averages 114 points. Adelaide score the most points from turnovers in the league, Sydney is the third-hardest to score against from turnovers. So how do Sydney do it? They are the AFL’s best pressure and tackling side, but lost the tackle count by 32 against GWS, their worst effort for the year. John Longmire addressed the weakness at his post-match conference, sure to spend the week reinforcing that message.

Sydney players walk off ANZ Stadium after losing to GWS.

2. CAN ADELAIDE KEEP BUDDY GOALLESS AGAIN?

Franklin roamed far and wide early against with telling effect against GWS then played deep and was starved of chances in the second half. But the end result was his first goalless final as his set shot routine went back to bad old habits. Now he needs to rebound against All Australian Daniel Talia, who we can assure you won’t get any tips from Swans brother Michael. Buddy will back himself in after kicking 10 goals in his past three encounters on Talia, who has taken him for every minute of their past three games. After a virtuoso year, Franklin will come out breathing fire.

CROWS

1. HAS BETTS BECOME EDDIE THE UNSTOPPABLE?

Eddie Betts had it on a string against the hapless Roos and is fast building a stunning finals record after five elimination final goals against the Dogs last year. But human glove Nick Smith will hope to bring him down to earth as the Hawks did keeping him goalless in last year’s semi final. In their last three battles he has kept Betts to a goal (2014), to zero goals (2015) and to three of his four goals in this year’s Round 4 epic. So while Sydney will know Betts is perhaps Adelaide’s most dangerous weapon, at least they have an obvious match-up for the man who broke North Melbourne (and Carlton) hearts.

Eddie Betts climbs over the pack to take a big mark.

2. CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A REPEAT OF ROUND 4?

In their only encounter this year Adelaide won the day by 10 points in one of the great home-and-away encounters. At a jam-packed Adelaide Oval (51,333 attendance) a frenetic game resulted in 31 marvellous goals from 61 scoring shots and heroics across the board. Eddie Betts, Franklin and Isaac Heeney all kicked four goals, Dan Hannebery starred with 38 touches and the Crows had five multiple goalkickers in the tight win. This finals series has been phenomenal anyway, but if we could approximate something like that clash at the SCG everyone would go home happy. So often we believe the beaten qualifying finalist will bounce back against its semi-final rival but every club in the final six can still win the flag.

THE ODDS

MATCH

Sydney $1.48

Adelaide $2.70

FLAG

Sydney $5

Adelaide $11

EARLY CALL: Sydney by 4 points

If Kurt Tippett’s jaw rules him out I refuse the right to change the tip, but Sydney’s SCG record still gives them the ascendancy. They have won 13 of their past 15 contests at the SCG, still have Buddy Franklin and clearly have the midfield edge on Adelaide. They own the corridor and try to slow down Adelaide’s ball movement as West Coast did to the Crows in Round 23.