Moneyball 2023: Your club’s biggest contract and list dilemmas
Essendon has emerged as one of the leading suitors for an Eagles star, while a young ruckman could be in line to replace Brodie Grundy at Melbourne. See every club’s biggest list, contract issues here.
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Ten AFL clubs are about to turn their singular focus onto the business of building hope. In a Moneyball special, we look at the biggest list quandary each club faces to march into future Septembers and become a premiership force.
ADELAIDE
Can Adelaide find another key position defender to replace Nick Murray given his ACL tear?
The Crows are not interested in Ben McKay given his injury history and will be priced out of the market for Esava Ratugolea – believing Port Adelaide is preparing to throw significant money at the Cats defender on a long-term deal.
So it seems the Crows are keen to build from within, and don’t even seem desperate to secure free agent Tom Doedee.
The Crows have reduced the deal they were prepared to offer Doedee given he has now torn an ACL in both knees.
The Crows believe Jordan Butts, Mark Keane, Josh Worrell and Mitch Hinge are all excellent options but have to make a decision on 192cm third-year rookie James Borlase.
BRISBANE
Does former captain Dayne Zorko get another season given his soft-tissue injuries?
He battled hamstring issues that delayed his start until round 2, he missed round 8 with another hamstring and then he was out from round 12-16 with a calf issue.
But in between his season has been excellent averaging 19 possessions, 85 ranking points, 1.6 score assists and 4.8 score involvements.
There are eight players 30 or older on the Lions list but they can afford to retain Zorko, who will be 35 in February, especially if he is still chasing that elusive premiership next year.
Dev Robertson has interest from West Coast and is weighing up their interest with loyalty to the Lions but reports of a four-year deal tabled by the Eagles have been denied.
CARLTON
If there is no room for Jack Silvagni in the club’s best 23, how do they amicably break up with him in a manner that doesn’t leave the recriminations that followed his father’s departure.
All is not lost for Silvagni, who is desperate to stay at the Blues but now with no more VFL games has no more opportunities to show form to regain his AFL position after a knee injury.
Rival clubs believe there will be a suitor who would emerge to pay him as much as $400,000 given his versatility as a canny heart-and-soul forward who can play ruck and has been trialled in the VFL as an intercept defender.
Links to GWS have been denied but it might take until the last days of free agency until a suitor emerges.
Surely Richmond makes sense given they are bereft of forward targets apart from Tom Lynch and he would not require a trade as a free agent.
COLLINGWOOD
Is there any way the Pies can hold onto Finn Macrae, and will it actually hurt the Pies if he leaves?
Macrae continues to rack up big VFL numbers and along with Josh Carmichael is a player of interest to rivals.
But despite excellent VFL numbers he has kicked the ball particularly poorly this year – going at just 42 per cent kicking efficiency.
He hasn’t kicked above 50 per cent efficiency since round 4 in what is admittedly an inside midfield role.
The Pies would be disappointed to lose him as the No. 19 pick from the 2020 draft after already losing the No. 17 pick (Ollie Henry) as well as the No. 30 pick (Caleb Poulter) in that draft.
ESSENDON
Does Essendon call North Melbourne’s bluff or are they truly prepared to hold their line on what they would pay Ben McKay?
North Melbourne is adamant privately and publicly that they will match any bid on Ben McKay.
But the difference in securing him and losing him could be only $100,000 a season in a $14 million salary cap.
For a club that has had so little success – and has been so regularly dominated by big key forwards – can they really go into next season without a gorilla given Tom Hawkins and Jesse Hogan have kicked 21 goals against the Dons in three encounters and Joe Daniher bagged six goals in round nine.
McKay has had an inconsistent year but at least he ranks second of all key defenders for intercept marks (3.8 per game).
FREMANTLE
Luke Jackson is desperate for the Dockers to re-sign pre-agent Sean Darcy despite the perception he is happier to play as the No. 1 overall ruckman.
He wants to be a hybrid mid, but he is also keen to play more time forward.
But with Darcy out of the side his own stats have been massive in the past five weeks, including his 173-ranking point 24-possession five clearance display against Brisbane with 13 hit-outs to advantage.
The Dockers had hoped to sign Darcy mid-year but amid his injury issues it was pushed back to the summer.
The balance for the Dockers is how to re-sign Darcy without paying $1 million a season.
But given Jackson’s deal is around $900,000 it may have set the market for Darcy.
So the Dockers need to lock him up and then find a way to maximise the pair, even if they are shelling out $1.8 million for ruckmen every season
GEELONG
How deep should the Cats cut the list? And how can Geelong find a ready-made ruck option?
Those are key questions confronting last year‘s premiers as it faces its first September without finals since 2015.
Chris Scott favours regeneration on the run rather than wholesale changes, believing a longer break and an earlier start to pre-season might aid the Cats going into next season.
Tom Hawkins will play on for another season. Isaac Smith will play his last game this week, Jon Ceglar has retired, Sam Menegola could be on the move, while Zach Tuohy is keen to play on for a 14th AFL season and is in early discussions with the club about his future.
The ruck role is fascinating with Ceglar gone and Rhys Stanley out of contract but a chance to get one more year.
The Cats believe Toby Conway, 20, could be the long-term solution, but that won’t stop them chasing someone else to help bridge the gap in the meantime.
GOLD COAST
How do you say no to Dustin Martin if he comes knocking on your door?
That wouldn’t be easy, but Gold Coast has to ask itself if securing Dusty is in its best interests heading into 2024, given its tight salary cap structure.
Richmond has made it clear that it wants Dusty to honour the final year of his contract with the club, which would see him become the seventh Tiger to reach 300 games next season.
There is also the not-insignificant matter of $1.3 million that Martin is owed in the last year of his deal, which the Tigers won’t want to pay a cent of if he moves to Gold Coast.
Dusty, 32, is open to joining his old coach Damien Hardwick at the Suns, away from what he sees as the prying AFL goldfish bowl of Melbourne.
The Suns could make the financials happen if it had to, but it would squeeze other areas of the cap. For instance, they will have to stump around $600,000 per season for Sam Flanders to ensure he stays with the club, given the interest coming from rivals.
Could the Suns spread out the Dusty money across a longer period of time, and lock him in for two or three years. Or wait until he finishes this contract at Richmond and take him as a rising 34-year-old who could be the cherry on the Gold Coast finals assault? Watch this space.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
The Giants have a strong 2023 draft hand, with first-round picks 7 and 11, but they are very keen to find a way to move up higher in the pool.
If so, which senior player could they add to the puzzle?
Lachie Whitfield is keen to stay, but could the Giants somehow find another club interested in Nick Haynes, which could have the dual effect of getting part of the defender’s huge salary off the books but also maybe giving them more power to move up the draft order.
It won’t be easy getting a taker on Haynes, given he is on between $850,000 and $950,000 with the deal ending next season.
The Giants have never been shy of taking a risk. Now might be the right time for another roll of the dice.
HAWTHORN
How can Sam Mitchell and the Hawks secure a ready-made key defender or key forward to help push this exciting young list into finals calculation next season.
That’s the plan inside Hawks HQ right now.
The Hawks are very comfortable with the young talent on the playing list, particularly with some of the left field selections via the mid-season draft and rookie list who have turned out to be potential future stars.
But Mitchell would love to add some more senior faces to the group in 2023, as they managed with Karl Amon in the free agency market last year.
Could they be a suitor for Saints free agent Jade Gresham, especially with out of contract Chad Wingard out for next season due to an Achilles injury?
Expect them to be aggressive in the marketplace.
MELBOURNE
No one seriously believes Brodie Grundy will be at Melbourne next season, so the Demons will have to find a cheaper, younger replacement to act as a back up to Max Gawn?
Grundy will almost certainly find a new home – with Port Adelaide, Geelong and Sydney possible suitors – which means the Demons will be looking for someone who could potentially replace Gawn in the coming years.
Could that player be Essendon’s Nick Bryan?
The 21-year-old out of contract Bomber played seven games at the back end of this season – for a total of 13 matches overall – before being dumped from the senior team last week.
Bryan is understood to want more ruck time, but that prospect looks doubtful at Essendon with Sam Draper set to carry that mantle for years to come.
Gawn still has plenty of good footy left but he will be 32 next season. That means if the Demons can get a young ruckman in to help him develop, he could take over from Gawn in the next few years.
NORTH MELBOURNE
The much anticipated Kangaroo cull has already started, but will Tarryn Thomas be out the door as well?
Thomas’ off-field behavioural issues this season have overshadowed his talents on the football field, but at his best, he can still be a damaging player as he has shown in recent weeks.
Which Tarryn Thomas will the Kangaroos get next season?
That’s the question, and if the answer is that it is too much of a risk for the Roos, they should entertain the option of trading him to a club confident it can get the best out of him.
He is still only 23 and is contracted to Arden St until the end of next season, but the Kangaroos have to work out if the interest from rival clubs is worth entertaining now before he comes out of contract at the end of 2024?
The Roos look likely to add Harley Reid to their talented but inexperienced roster that includes Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw, if they cannot overcome Gold Coast this week.
Alastair Clarkson will be looking to add senior talent to replace the likes of retired Roos Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Aaron Hall and co.
But evergreen ruckman Todd Goldstein looks likely to be rewarded with a new deal after carrying the load for most of the year.
PORT ADELAIDE
Get ready for a huge play from Port Adelaide. The Power want Esava Ratugolea and Brodie Grundy as part of a seismic double-hit. Ratugolea would bolster a defence which needs some help and Grundy could come on the cheap after falling out of favour at Melbourne. Grundy’s management stable, Connors Sports, will be able to shake the tree enough to jar Grundy loose, if the Demons can land a new back-up ruckman. The Demons say it won’t happen but list managers change their minds sometimes. Mitch Georgiades is poised to stay on a longer-term deal after suffering an ACL injury.
RICHMOND
The top priority is the sit-down with Dustin Martin. Rumours have persisted that the superstar wants to get out of the Melbourne fishbowl and reunite with Damien Hardwick at Gold Coast. It would land the Tigers a first-round pick and clear $1 million in the salary cap. Surely Richmond would prefer that than a Martin farewell lap across the length of next season. The Tigers will always love Dusty, a genuine Richmond champion, but there is a win-win situation in the works here, if Martin wants a fresh challenge, like Dimma. Could land them a top kid or new key forward. Jack Silvagni is a free agency option to boost the forward line.
ST KILDA
Expect St Kilda to be aggressive this year as the club looks to bring in more top-line talent from the draft. Another three or four picks inside the first 30 would be a strong start and that could include a compensation selection for free agent Jade Gresham. The Saints won’t muck around. Any offers for the likes of Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Hunter Clark, Dougal Howard and Zak Jones etc will be considered. The Saints need to realign the cap to ensure fringe players aren’t getting overs. Looking at Paddy Dow from Carlton to bolster the engine room.
SYDNEY SWANS
Coach John Longmire desperately wants a key defender to replace retired backman Paddy McCartin. But Tom Barrass said he wants to stay at West Coast and Harry Himmelberg re-signed. They could have a late crack at Ben McKay, from North Melbourne, with some of the money leftover from Lance Franklin’s departure. Would Saints Dougal Howard appeal? The Swans believe they belong in the top part of the ladder and are prepared to hand over their first pick to secure a big backman.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
It will be the biggest salary cap balancing act in the game. How do the Bulldogs keep their twin towers Aaron Naughton and Tim English while locking away Bailey Smith and sorting out a pay rise for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan? Expect Toby McLean to try and find a new home and the Cats have been strongly linked to Smith, despite denials. The Dogs will try to act quick over summer with whopper $1 million-a-year long-term deals for Naughton and English to head-off offers from their hometown Western Australian clubs.
WEST COAST
The Eagles need as many early picks as they can get to help accelerate a rebuild which has gone wildly off the tracks at times this year. Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett look like stars, but which other young kids can West Coast fans hitch their caravans too? Veteran wingman Andrew Gaff is up for grabs, Tom Barrass says he is staying, and the Herald Sun revealed Essendon is among the clubs chasing Elliot Yeo. They have to take WA key defender Daniel Curtin with pick two. Interested in Brisbane’s Deven Robertson.
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