Mick McGuane’s six burning AFL questions for round 6
Does Collingwood have a system that can topple Brisbane? Mick McGuane writes, there is a path for Craig McRae’s side to head into the Lion’s den and knock off the premiers.
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The first quarter of the AFL season is coming to an end, and it is gradually becoming clearer which sides boast legitimate finals credentials.
But where do Adelaide and Gold Coast currently sit in the pecking order? And is it getting too late for Melbourne to revive its season?
Herald Sun columnist Mick McGuane runs the rule over the league’s hottest and coldest sides ahead of a jam-packed round 6.
HOW CAN COLLINGWOOD TOPPLE THE LIONS?
If the Magpies are to upset the reigning premiers at the Gabba on Thursday night, they must be the better pressure team and force a “chaos” game.
Coach Craig McRae will want his charges to embrace imperfection – knowing mistakes will occur, but the Magpies can overcome it.
The Lions have started games slowly, which is a concern. The root of this is something Chris Fagan will want to address.
Brisbane has been able to seize back control in the second halves this season due to talent and getting the game back on their terms through their preferred method of play – being strong in the contest and at stoppages to gain territory.
For long periods they have been able to play a kick-mark style, moving the ball efficiently through the corridor or to the open side of the ground to fuel their attack.
Collingwood must look to fill the corridor, which they did superbly against Sydney.
The Swans kept falling into the “Fly Trap” – as the Magpies are playing a fierce mid-forward turnover game, and currently sit first in the competition for intercepts to scores, and second for scores from stoppages.
It is critical that they maintain that identity against Brisbane, because if they cannot force turnovers in their front half, the Lions can take the ball down the ground with uncontested marks and feed their multi-pronged attack.
The Pies forwards must also make it difficult for Brisbane to give the ball to Dayne Zorko, who can kickstart the Lions’ attack and get them control of the tempo of the game from halfback.
IS IT A WORRY THAT NORTH MELBOURNE’S PROGRESS HAS STALLED?
I am deeply concerned about North Melbourne’s ability to defend.
This is a talented offensive team that has the ability to win plenty of the ball – the Roos currently sit fourth in the competition for disposals and are first for disposal efficiency.
They are also the second most accurate for shots at goal, and this was all on display when they blasted Melbourne off the park in round 2.
But the winless Demons are the only side they have been able to score 100-plus points against, and in all four losses they have conceded a triple figure score – which they did 18 times last season.
Against Gold Coast, there were 12 Roos with 100 games or more against their names.
For a relatively experienced side to lead by nine points with nine minutes to go in the third quarter, and then surrender as meekly as they did to lose by 60, was inexcusable.
In the last 40 minutes, when the game is up for grabs, that’s more than enough time to understand the machinations of when and how to defend to wrestle back some momentum.
Does this current group put a high enough premium on defence when the game is slipping away?
Watching the likes of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Harry Sheezel and Tom Powell reminds me of Essendon’s midfield of two to three years ago – their main midfielders are all ball-hunters and accumulators, who put a higher price on possession over defensive formation.
This is when the team gets caught out when they don’t win possession and get heavily scored against.
It means the Kangaroos’ strength in pursuit of winning the ball is also becoming their achilles heel.
WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE AT MELBOURNE AFTER A DISASTROUS START?
Melbourne’s game is not in good shape at all. It was well summed up by coach Simon Goodwin this week when he conceded the Demons have become “far too easy to play against”.
They were ranked second for points against in 2023; eighth last year; but are currently languishing at 17th in the league.
That is unacceptable for a team that still had 15 players from its 2021 premiership side on the ground against Essendon on Saturday night.
There was incriminating footage on Fox Footy of Jack Viney against the Bombers. He was quick to react coming away from a contest and chase down Jye Menzie.
That was terrific, but the biggest issue was that Viney didn’t see it through after he laid a tackle on Menzie close to the boundary line.
Menzie stayed involved, receiving a backwards handball in space with ample time to assess his options and deliver a kick with pinpoint accuracy to a teammate 15m out that resulted in a goal.
Viney was not alone. Melbourne’s leaders are no doubt hurting, but defensive acts like this cannot be tolerated. It’s fixable. It just requires a change in attitude and intent.
As for the mess up forward, the Demons’ attacking method still requires a major overhaul.
Too often, Melbourne players seem to consider handballs a second-class possession, and it denies them opportunities when going inside 50.
And time and again they kick to contests, instead of using the outnumber to chain together handballs and put a teammate into space who has more time to assess the best option up forward.
Those forwards can also help themselves by not constantly retreating away from the ball-carrier, and at times, should strike back at the leg of the kicker.
It helps separate themselves from each other and forces the opposition defenders to make decisions. It also creates space for their other teammates to work into.
For years now, Melbourne has kicked repeatedly to contests inside 50. Let’s be real, Melbourne just doesn’t possess a Wayne Carey, Nick Riewoldt or a Jonathan Brown.
Their current forwards simply cannot win enough crucial 50-50 contested mark contests so why play that way?
Goodwin must consider whether his current forward mix lacks creative nous or the ability to anticipate what is happening up the field to become a dangerous and usable option.
IS GOLD COAST FINALLY THE REAL DEAL IN 2025?
Based on what we have seen so far, there is an argument to say yes, but I still have some reservations about the Suns.
The Adelaide win was a big tick, but the other three victories have come against current bottom-four clubs.
Something to take from those wins over less talented teams has been that the Suns are inflicting maximum punishment through their offence.
I love what they are doing without the ball. They are squeezing the ground aggressively when the ball is in their forward 50, very similarly to Richmond in the premiership years under Damien Hardwick. They are cashing in on the forward half intercepts they are creating.
With Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller all firing, they are first for clearance-to-score, and Ben King and Ben Long have been converting their opportunities up forward when it goes inside 50.
We won’t have a clear indication of where Gold Coast sits in the pecking order until they meet some of the competition’s best teams in the coming weeks.
After Richmond this week, a brutal seven-week run into their mid-season bye features Sydney (home), Brisbane (Gabba), Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn (Darwin), St Kilda (Marvel), Fremantle (home) and Geelong (GMHBA).
Is their progress genuine or are they living in dreamland? Time will tell!
IS THE CROWS’ BRAND SUSTAINABLE ENOUGH TO CARRY THEM TO THE FINALS?
Not right now. Adelaide’s offence is as good as anyone, and they have played the most exciting football in the competition so far.
The Crows’ three powerful key forwards are the envy of the league, and they boast serious class through the middle with Izak Rankine, Jordan Dawson and Jake Soligo.
Their backline structure is sound, given they have been playing without their preferred key back in Nick Murray due to a knee injury.
But things are going pear-shaped for the Crows when they rebound from defence, and they will continue to be hurt if they cannot retain the ball in their back half.
They are being punished for a lack of ball security and rank 14th in the competition for conceding points from turnovers, which is not the profile of a contender.
Perhaps a highly attacking mindset is leaving too many players in poor positions when they turn the ball over.
Effective ball movement coming out of defence is crucial, with four of the past six premiers ranked No. 1 for generating scores from halfback.
If Adelaide can stamp out some of these unforced errors, which the good sides don’t make, then their scoring power will pose a bigger threat to rivals.
WHO WINS THE EASTER MONDAY BLOCKBUSTER, AND WHY?
Hawthorn’s midfield must show up at the start of this clash or else Geelong will be able to use Port Adelaide’s blueprint from last week to inflict maximum damage.
The Cats booted 5.0 from centre bounces against Adelaide last week – their ninth-best haul in the last decade – so the heat will be on Jai Newcombe to lead a manic start after last week’s embarrassment.
The Hawks’ review would have been brutal in the wake of the Power loss, and I expect them to move the ball sharply with the intent to spread Geelong over the MCG’s wide expanses.
Jack Scrimshaw will be an important addition to the backline, and James Sicily, Karl Amon and Jarman Impey must be back to their best as the Hawks’ elite ball-users in defence.
Tom Barrass will likely play on Shannon Neale.
The tall forward will attempt to take him away from goal to create room for a red-hot Patrick Dangerfield to work in.
Could Sam Mitchell give Josh Weddle a job on the dangerous Geelong skipper?
Weddle played with too much licence against Port Adelaide, and it could be time to throw him a defensive challenge and see how their promising youngster responds.
A returning Tom Stewart will also require close attention. He is an outstanding intercept defender who plays with great surety when he wins the ball back.
He sets up the Cats’ attacking game by looking to take short kicks at every opportunity.
Geelong will punish the Hawks on the scoreboard if Hawthorn’s defensive system resembles a dogs’ breakfast like it did against Port last Sunday. They were out of sync with each other and it told.
I’m expecting a strong response from the Hawks, pressure being the key, and if that happens, they can return to their best on the MCG and take the points.
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