Mick McGuane’s 2024 Watchlist: Clubs coaches, players on notice, best recruits, Rising Star
At his best, Jake Stringer is a match winner but there were times in 2023 when he wasn’t properly prepared. This must not be accepted by Essendon in 2024 writes MICK MCGUANE.
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AFL Analyst Mick McGuane is back for his weekly column in 2024.
He’s kicked things off by revealing his Watchlist for the coming season — putting some clubs, coaches and players on notice.
Mick’s also looked at what could be the two best bargain recruits of the summer and who he thinks will win the AFL Rising Star — including a major roughie.
ALL EYES ON ESSENDON
The time for excuses at Essendon is over.
The club — which still hasn’t won a final since 2004 — has now had a second pre-season under coach Brad Scott and has made some big investments in experienced recruits Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Todd Goldstein and Xavier Duursma.
I want to see this group be coached really strongly this season and understand the opportunities in front of them.
Every player selected at AFL level needs to display an emotional investment every week.
If they compromise any aspect of the Bombers’ standards and game plan they must be dropped.
There were matches gifted to players who weren’t physically or mentally prepared last season.
Jake Stringer and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti come to mind.
That can’t happen again.
The three key things Essendon must improve this season are its ball movement, its defensive formation and its ability to lock the ball in its front half.
If they want their season to run into September, the Bombers have to play a more up-tempo brand of footy with some dare and speed on the ball, their midfield must be selfless and play their roles in their team defence structure and the forward line must be harder to play against and apply more pressure and tackles.
Scott’s biggest challenge is to get the balance right among the seven or eight forwards and ensure they bring the heat consistently when they don’t win the ball.
Jake Stringer laid the most forward-50 tackles of any Bomber last season with 25 from his 17 matches.
Kyle Langford and Jye Menzie (each 23 forward-50 tackles last season) also get ticks in that area.
But too many others consistently fail to quickly snap into a defensive mindset — and it’s costing Essendon a chance to become a strong front half team and therefore a finals contender.
SIX-WEEK AUDITIONS
There’s two teams that we will know a lot about by round 6.
One side I am referring to — Carlton — finished top-eight last year and the other side — Adelaide — just missed and arguably should have made the eight.
The Blues were a basket case in the middle of last season, having won just four of their first 13 games before storming to a preliminary final.
They proved that at their best – and with their best personnel available – they are a formidable team.
But who can be sure which Carlton we will see in 2024 — the one which finished last season with a wet sail or the one which left everyone scratching their heads at the bye?
The Blues must seize the opportunity they have been given in the form of a soft draw in the first six weeks — and build some momentum and confidence from it.
The Brisbane Lions will be tough in Opening Round at the Gabba on Friday night.
But after that the Blues face Richmond, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Adelaide (Marvel Stadium) and GWS (Marvel Stadium).
If they are the real deal, they could be 5-1.
There is a lot to like about Adelaide, particularly forward of centre.
Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele and Luke Pedlar have added to a vibrant front-half mix, while the evergreen Taylor Walker keeps delivering and young key forwards Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe keep developing, even though the latter will likely miss 12 weeks due to surgery to his left knee after last weeks practise match against West Coast Eagles.
But the Crows have some issues down back to start the season, following the departure of Tom Doedee to the Lions over the off-season and the ACL injury which won’t have Nick Murray back in action until the middle of the year.
A strong start to the season would go a long way to setting Adelaide on the path to September.
But the Crows will be in trouble if they can’t overcome some early challenges.
YZE’S FIRST MISTAKE AT TIGERLAND?
I’ve always believed in the ability for natural key forwards to become gun key defenders.
Ross Glendinning did it as well as anyone at North Melbourne years ago, while Melbourne’s Garry Lyon and David Neitz looked comfortable and could be relied upon when swung into defence and even Essendon’s Scott Lucas and Fremantle’s Matthew Pavlich were both used down back and didn’t look out of place.
But it doesn’t often work the other way.
I can understand the rationale behind new Richmond coach Adem Yze deciding to throw Noah Balta forward this year, given the retirement of Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch’s ongoing injury issues.
However, I’m far from convinced that Balta is the solution.
Yes, he’s got great speed, athleticism and aerial prowess — attributes which many of the best key forwards also possess.
But we’ve seen this script before.
Balta spent significant time forward in 2022, but only managed 16 marks inside 50 and 13 goals that year.
He doesn’t have a forward’s footy brain and too often leads to where he wants to go and not to where he should go and work into the vision of the ball carrier.
I won’t be shocked if Balta comes out and kicks three or four goals against the Gold Coast Suns on Saturday night.
He’s capable of those sort of performances.
But can he consistently deliver in his new role throughout the year? I doubt it.
The Tigers are robbing Peter to pay Paul with the loss of Balta from their backline.
It’s risky business.
Get him back where he belongs and shore up the defence.
TIME TO STAND UP, ZAC
Zac Williams has been to hell and back in the past 13 months.
He did his ACL at training last February and then lost his sister Sammy to cancer in June. Without doubt a challenging period in his life.
The largely forgotten Blue’s return to the fold on Friday night is a great narrative and one he should be proud of.
However, Williams can’t hide away from the other narrative — that his move to Carlton hasn’t been as successful as he would have liked so far.
He joined the Blues on big money and with much fanfare at the end of 2020, but has managed just 23 AFL games since.
Williams has to find a way to get back to his form of 2019 at GWS, when he was not only a high accumulator of the footy but also brought great bounce, energy, tackle pressure and clearance-winning ability.
The 29-year-old will start this season across halfback for Carlton, but could rotate through the midfield and add a different dynamic to an at times pedestrian onball brigade once he builds his fitness.
If he can get back to his best, Williams could be the point of difference that makes the Blues better than last year.
RECRUITS OF THE YEAR
Plenty of players changed colours over the off-season, but there are two less-heralded ones I’ve got my eyes on entering 2024.
Former Port Adelaide defender Riley Bonner didn’t make too many headlines when he crossed to St Kilda via the pre-season draft, but he’s a seasoned player with 93 games of AFL experience who is going to be a key inclusion for Ross Lyon.
Not only will Bonner provide some bounce and penetration off halfback, but his arrival should also allow 2023 All-Australian halfback Jack Sinclair to play higher up the ground.
Richmond’s gutsy move to pick up former Sydney ruckman Sam Naismith as a delisted free agent last November also looks set to pay off.
He’s a ready-made 206cm ruckman who consistently gives all that he’s got out on the field.
Naismith has had his challenges — including three ACL surgeries since 2017 — but it’s a great story of perseverance that he has earned another opportunity at the top level following a strong VFL campaign with Port Melbourne last year.
The 31-year-old could become one of the stories of the year.
RISING STAR RACE
More and more we are seeing players emerge from the underage talent pathways and not look one bit out of place in the big league.
Like Harry Sheezel did last season, I’m expecting No. 2 draft pick Colby McKercher to have a major impact across halfback for North Melbourne in 2024.
Anyone can see that McKercher is skilful, composed and has great balance and speed.
Over time, he will provide incredible flexibility for coach Alastair Clarkson, as a player who can feature in all three areas of the ground.
But McKercher will start across halfback this season – and will cut apart any opposition teams who don’t show him enough attention.
He’s my tip to win the AFL Rising Star award.
There’s also a lot to like about Ryley Sanders, with the Western Bulldogs securing a beauty there.
Sanders is strong and reliable in the contest, has quick feet around congestion and reads the ball of the ruckman’s hands extremely well.
I’m also putting Will Graham’s name on the menu.
The No. 26 pick from last year’s draft might not start the season for the Gold Coast Suns, but expect him to be a 200-game player and could earn the title as the Suns “diamond in the rough” over time.
Graham can play wing or halfback, has an outstanding temperament and is a good reader of the play.
He is a player that the footy world will become very familiar with over the next 6 months.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
Good
OVERHAULED INJURY LISTS
It was about time the AFL did something about clubs and how they detail their injury lists, which were moving towards short, medium and long-term guidance rather than an expected return in weeks. Things can change, but fans want to know when their favourite players are going to be back on the field and ‘medium term’ is as clear as mud.
Bad
CALLS FOR RED CARDS
I don’t mind the idea of a send-off rule in theory, but I can’t see how a red card would work in practice. Who would make the decision? What evidence would it be based on? And how quickly would it be called? In a contact sport with so much grey area, a red card rule could create more problems than it solves. What may be a red card for one won’t be for another.
Ugly
BAD BUMPS
St Kilda’s Jimmy Webster copped his fair whack for what was a terrible decision to jump off the ground and bump North Melbourne’s Jy Simpkin last week. It’s pretty simple – if there is a decision to bump or tackle, just tackle. Too many players are being forced into early retirement due to concussion problems on the back of opponents making poor decisions and not acknowledging their duty of care.
Ablett family reveal details of son’s condition
Jordan and Gary Ablett had chosen not to reveal many details about their little boy’s heartbreaking condition until now.
Make me a Giant: The deal that will make Stringer’s wish a reality
Jake Stringer wants to play for GWS next season, but how can the Bombers and Giants get a deal done? One young gun at GWS could be the key. Recap day three of the trade period here.