Mick McGuane: Western Bulldogs v Essendon round 5 preview, Hawthorn analysis
Aaron Naughton has been down on some key stats, but has been adding value to the Dogs in other ways. MICK McGUANE looks at the big talking points for the Dogs.
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Friday night’s clash between the Western Bulldogs and Essendon is set to tell us a lot about both sides.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the keys to success for each team and the players who need to lift.
Plus, Mick takes a look at Hawthorn after a 0-4 start to the season. Is Sam Mitchell’s side still on the right track?
FRIDAY NIGHT SPOTLIGHT
ESSENDON
Forget the ‘Essendon Edge’.
When things go pear shaped, Brad Scott’s team have once again proved they struggle to wrestle back momentum against a quality opponent.
Don’t get me wrong — their first quarter was outstanding against Port Adelaide last week.
However, after that it was a procession from the Power at the centre bounce and Essendon was soft and lacked initiative as it failed to adjust.
Port Adelaide won the centre clearances for the game 19-6, which is a smashing in anyone’s language.
That is the one area of the ground where you can’t saturate numbers to support stoppage loss and when you concede clearance numbers like that you will also give up significant inside-50s and put your defensive six under enormous pressure.
When they did have the ball, the Bombers managed only six goals from 43 inside-50s against the Power.
Much of that can be put down to their kicking and decision making when going forward, which was often fairly mediocre by AFL standards.
Port Adelaide only took one intercept mark in the first quarter, but grabbed 17 for the rest of the game as Essendon’s ball security imploded.
The Bombers are not hard enough for long enough and until they can find some greater consistency both from an offensive and defensive perspective they will remain a middle-of-the-road team.
What did Essendon’s legendary coach Kevin Sheedy and now current director say about another club and a couple of their football administrators in the late 1990’s?
‘Marshmallow’ Kangaroos comes to mind.
The way the Essendon on-ballers meekly surrendered to their more energetic and hungry counterparts last week resembled that of marshmallows.
To be blunt, they were soft and far too easy to play against.
Compounding the issues, two of their constants through the middle in Will Setterfield (knee) and Archie Perkins (hamstring) now find themselves on the sidelines.
But that might prove a good chance for Scott to be innovative with his midfield mix.
THE KEY
Bring the heat and hit back at centre bounce.
Winning first possession gains and transferring that into clearance wins against the Bulldogs is critical.
Also, the Bombers can ill-afford to get into a shootout, so their pressure and tackling game must be manic and kamikaze like.
On the back of a strong defensive mindset their attack will come.
Make no mistake — this game starts and stops with ruck duo Todd Goldstein and Sam Draper, who face off with an in-form Tim English after being soundly beaten by Ivan Soldo and Jeremy Finlayson last week.
They need to be aggressive and set the scene, as do their midfielders — both offensively and defensively.
Essendon can’t afford to let Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore or Adam Treloar come out the front of stoppage as easily as Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis did last week.
Understanding trends and having solutions to counter the strengths of your opposition is what great leaders and on field organisers provide the team.
Last week the Bombers midfielders were rudderless and didn’t have the answers to change momentum, which is a facet of the game that hurt them.
If you are going to leave an area of space open, make it forward of the ruckman.
Don’t expose yourself with allowing your defensive side to be exploited, as Essendon did last week.
Talk about leaving the gate open.
WHO NEEDS TO LIFT?
If he doesn’t smarten up his game soon, Mason Redman could find himself in the VFL.
It has been an underwhelming start to the season for a player who inked a five-year contract extension last July.
Redman’s rebound-50s have dropped from 4.9 last year to 3.3 this year, his intercept possessions have halved from 6 to 3 and his intercept marks are drastically down from 2.1 to 0.7 a game.
As much as Redman is out of form, Nic Martin’s move to halfback hasn’t helped him.
Could Scott move Martin into the midfield to add some nimbleness and energy at the coal face, allowing Redman to be the main man off halfback once again?
It’s worth a try and may prove a win-win for both the team and players involved.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs look to have found some bite.
It was a poor start to the season against Melbourne in round 1, but since then Luke Beveridge’s team has done a lot right.
They’re playing a strong front-half game and have the ability to do some damage centre-forward through the a potent attack which includes Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and Cody Weightman.
The Bulldogs rank fourth in the competition for retaining the ‘money kick’ going inside-50, third for overall kicking efficiency, fifth for pressure rating and fifth for average points from turnovers at 53.8 points per game.
They are a side which wants to play the game at an up-tempo speed by playing on quickly from marks, changing angles and pinpointing open players in space.
That speed of ball movement will challenge Essendon’s defence on Friday night as the Bulldogs eye a third win in four weeks at Marvel Stadium.
However, as good as they have been with the ball, there is room for improvement without it.
Beveridge’s team ranks 12th for defending ball movement — that is the opposition’s ability to move the ball from their defensive 50 to attacking 50.
This clash with the Bombers is big and will tell us a lot about the Bulldogs.
If Beveridge’s team wants to return to finals this year, these are the type of games they need to capitalise on.
THE KEY
It’s all about a strong inside-to-outside game around contest for the Bulldogs.
Tom Liberatore is one of the most influential players in the competition and had an off-the-charts match against Geelong last week.
He racked up 21 first-possession gains on his way to 19 clearances from 35 disposals.
If Essendon don’t put some serious work into Liberatore and take away his first-possession gains, he will again get the ball to the outside and kickstart the Bulldogs’ offence.
On the flip side, the Bulldogs must ensure that the Bombers don’t get their tails up around stoppages after a poor showing last week.
Given that the Bulldogs’ ability to defend ball movement is questionable, they won’t want to rely on winning the ball back across halfback.
The Bulldogs want to lock the ball in their front-half and generate repeat entries to hit the scoreboard — which you do through winning clearances and gaining territory.
WHO NEEDS TO LIFT?
The Bulldogs’ big names have all started the season in good form — and that includes Naughton.
However, Naughton is a bit of a conundrum at the moment.
His forward-50 marks have dropped from 2.5 to 1.3 a game this year, as a result of playing higher up the ground and bringing with him the opposition’s best defender.
That is allowing Ugle-Hagan more space to work in inside-50, and as a consequence he is the Bulldogs’ most targeted forward.
But he has only kicked six goals from four games and Naughton only has four majors.
Naughton is indirectly impacting the scoreboard in his higher role, averaging an elite 7.5 score involvements per game.
But is Beveridge getting his forward structure right when it comes to who he is trying to isolate?
That’s the big question given Ugle-Hagan’s returns.
KEY MATCH UPS
Harrison Jones v Liam Jones
The Bombers forward has to play a negating role but also make sure he stays relevant by being a viable option when his side is attacking the forward line. This will force his opponent to be accountable. Liam Jones is the Bulldogs’ best interceptor, so Harrison Jones should be using him as a competitive starting point and make sure he doesn’t influence the air through intercept marks.
Tim English v Todd Goldstein & Sam Draper
This ruck battle will be fascinating. English is looking to secure a juicy new contract but will need to stand and deliver against a duo who should be fired up after being badly beaten last week. English often uses soft hands to tap down to Tom Liberatore, but if the Bombers give Liberatore some close attention then English might need to look to get the ball on the outside and into space, more like Ivan Soldo did against Essendon last week. English can also slide forward and be an aerial threat in front of the ball, which is something Goldstein and Draper will have to watch for.
Ben McKay v Aaron Naughton
Naughton has been playing higher up the ground this season and there will be some cat and mouse around how far he can take McKay with him to try and minimise his intercept game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Naughton play a little deeper at times, though. Playing 20m forward of stoppages between the arcs doesn’t look to help the Bulldogs’ forward structure.
Tom Liberatore v Sam Durham
Durham is a hard inside midfielder who will be a welcome addition given the losses of Perkins and Setterfield to injury. Durham can win contests himself, but he can also be accountable and take away Liberatore’s stoppage prowess. The Bombers need to cut the snake off at the head and that means limiting the impact of Liberatore.
HAWTHORN: ON TRACK OR UNDERACHIEVING?
Keep the faith, Hawks fans.
It’s been a tough 0-4 start to the season and it doesn’t get any easier against the Gold Coast Suns at Carrara on Saturday night.
However, I’m still quite bullish about Hawthorn and where Sam Mitchell’s side is tracking.
If not for some inaccuracy against Essendon in round 1, the Hawks could have put an early win on the board.
While they were badly beaten by Melbourne (55 points) and Geelong (36 points) after that, they took it right up to reigning premier Collingwood in a five-point loss last week.
Let’s not forget how young this side is — and with youth comes inconsistency.
The narrow defeat to the Magpies came despite Hawthorn fielding the competition’s youngest and least experienced team for the round.
Collingwood was the round’s oldest and most experienced team, with an average age more than four years older than the Hawks and an average of 77 more games of experience per player.
That said, Hawthorn has been shooting itself in the foot with its poor starts to matches.
The Hawks have kicked just 4.10 from their four opening quarters this season and it’s not easy to play catch-up against good teams in the AFL.
The other big issue has been the absence of personnel in their front half.
Chad Wingard’s footy smarts have been sorely missed and Mitch Lewis is on the sidelines with injury again.
As good a servants as they have been over the years, it’s almost time to move past Jack Gunston and Luke Breust.
They will still be needed at stages this year, but they are not going to be part of the future.
Max Ramsden showed good signs in just his third game last week, while Jack Ginnivan has added some creativity and Dylan Moore needs to be more of a constant in the forward line given he knows where the goals are.
After his four-goal haul last week, Blake Hardwick also needs to stay at the attacking end given how dangerous he can be there.
Hawthorn has been playing a solid front-half game and generated 30 forward-half intercepts against Collingwood last week.
The problem was that they only scored 12 points from them — well below the AFL average of 21 points.
That’s not getting bang for buck but when the best forwards return that will change.
The other key area the Hawks need to tidy up is their ball movement from halfback.
There’s an imbalance at times between when to go fast and when to play slow.
James Sicily, Sam Frost, Jack Scrimshaw and Jarman Impey are the constants back there and have to start playing with a little more dare.
Mictchell can’t do much about the key injuries from the coaches’ box.
But with the game plan and style of play he is implementing, Hawthorn is still every chance to match last year’s seven-win season.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
GOOD
Mac Andrew. The Gold Coast key defender was nothing short of outstanding last week on his way to a club record 16 intercept possessions. He’s still just 20 years old and has only 22 senior games under his belt, but if he can continue to rise to those standards it will bode well for the Suns’ defensive structure going forward.
BAD
The carry-on from Fremantle. To give up two goals in the closing stages of a tight contest with Carlton last week was inexcusable. It was very selfish by Jordan Clark not to contain his anger and it ultimately cost the Dockers the game. Umpires don’t change their mind, Jordan, so learn from your ill discipline.
UGLY
Vilification on the football field. Times have changed and as much as he showed genuine remorse, Jeremy Finlayson copped a three-week suspension for a homophobic slur towards an Essendon player last week. My only question for the AFL is: Why did Alastair Clarkson only receive a fine for his indiscretion just over a month ago? We would just like some consistency. Stop treating us like fools.
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