Mick McGuane: The good, the bad and the unsustainable aspects of Carlton’s emergence
The midfield has been Carlton’s weapon of mass destruction in its hot start to 2022. And the numbers have been telling — including from an unsung hero.
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When you are wrong it’s important to admit it.
I was way off the mark in my assessment of Carlton’s new-look midfield, ranking them 14th in my pre-season list rankings.
However, I’m not admitting I was wrong about leaving the Blues out of finals calculations just yet.
It’s been a great start for Carlton and 3-0 teams historically go on to feature in September 84 per cent of the time.
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But hold fire on buying those Grand Final tickets, Blue Baggers.
There’s an argument that Carlton could easily be 1-2, especially if there was better conversion from the Western Bulldogs in Round 2 and if Hawthorn had an ounce of luck before the late Jack Silvagni goal in Round 3.
The fact is, for all the improvement that the Blues have made under new coach Michael Voss so far this year, they are still a long way from being the complete package.
THE GOOD
Led by a rejuvenated captain Patrick Cripps, Carlton’s midfield has clearly been its weapon of mass destruction so far this season.
Cripps has won 57 per cent of his possessions in the forward half and is impacting on the scoreboard like never before.
He has been complemented by a fitter Matthew Kennedy, two new recruits in George Hewett and Adam Cerra, a 2021 All-Australian in Sam Walsh and a much-improved ruckman in Marc Pittonet.
It is a powerful onball brigade that has generated 64, 49 and 64 inside-50 entries across the first three weeks.
The group has great synergy and connection, is tough on the inside of the contest to win first possession and has good shape on the outside through the likes of Walsh and Cerra.
Across the opening rounds, the Blues midfield have recorded a contested possession differential of +23, a clearance differential of +10 and have scored an average of 44 points a game from stoppages.
They have also recorded the club’s best ever return of scores from centre clearances at 19.7 points a game — which is impressive.
The combative style that Voss himself used to embody as a player is clearly on show.
They are tough and hungry to win the ball.
Pittonet’s influence cannot be undersold, either.
The Blues’ stoppage dominance has been the result of having a ruckman who is getting his hands on the ball first and is having hitout-to-advantage wins.
Pittonet has recorded hit-outs to advantage from 17.4 per cent of his total hit-outs this year (up from 14.5 per cent last year) and is averaging five clearances (up from 4) and 5.7 score involvements (up from 4.5) a game.
This stoppage dominance is creating great opportunities for the forwards.
In attack, the Twin Towers — Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow — are continuing to learn how each other play and develop better understanding of each other’s space and leading patterns.
Even though they were drafted together back in 2015, McKay and Curnow have still only played 28 games together — for 7 wins and 21 losses.
If they can both stay fit and healthy they are going to cause some serious carnage, combined with fellow marking targets Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni.
THE BAD
Carlton’s midfield dominance to date has meant its leaky defence has not become too exposed.
The Blues have conceded the fewest opposition inside-50s of any team, but opposition sides have scored from 46 per cent of their entries when they have got the ball in there.
That ranks Carlton 11th in the competition.
The question we asked at the start of the year was: Who is going to fill the hole left by Liam Jones?
Oscar McDonald didn’t play against Hawthorn last week and Lewis Young was serviceable in his place.
But McDonald has to step up and be the No. 2 defender to Jacob Weitering.
Mitch McGovern, who is sidelined with a hamstring, also has a great opportunity to revive his career as a third-tall intercept defender when he returns.
Carlton needs the three key defenders fit and firing — or it will be exposed against the better teams.
The other concern is Carlton’s ability to transition the ball out of its defensive 50.
In general play, there is concerns about their kicking ability and their decision making at times.
Across the first three rounds, the Blues have scored from only 10 per cent of their chains originating from defensive 50.
Compare this to Brisbane, which is a strong ball movement team and has scored from 17 per cent of its defensive 50 chains.
The Blues still have a tendency to turn the ball over coming out of defence, especially when fatigue kicks in late in games.
Not only do turnovers coming out of the backline impact your ability to score, but the best teams at the end of the year have strong front-half profiles and will punish you the other way for such errors.
Ball use going inside-50 is another area that must improve.
From 64 inside-50s against the Hawks last week, Carlton managed only 20 shots on goal.
That return of 31 per cent efficiency won’t cut it.
Like Port Adelaide, the Blues have been favouring deep inside-50 entries to give McKay and Curnow a chance in the air, but those plays become predicable to the opposition and are easy to defend against.
THE UNSUSTAINABLE
The reason I am not pencilling in Carlton to play finals just yet is because historically its current scoring profile is unsustainable.
The Blues have scored 48 per cent of their total scores this year from stoppages, at a time when most of the competition’s best teams are scoring a majority of their points from turnovers.
Carlton is averaging just 43.3 points from turnovers, ranking it 10th in the competition.
Its points from turnover differential overall is an average of -6 points per game, ranked 11th.
History shows us that nine of the past 10 premiers have ranked top-six in the points from turnovers differential category.
Right now, the Blues must improve this aspect of their game.
In the second half against Hawthorn last week, they scored just seven points from turnovers.
Reigning premier Melbourne averaged 54 points from turnovers last season.
Against the better teams in the competition, you can ill afford to be a one trick pony.
Scoring heavily from stoppages can win you games, but it can’t be relied on week-in, week-out.
If your stoppage strength gets diluted through a fierce, combative opposition group of on-ballers around clearance, then what?
Or what if you come up against a strong group of opposition defenders who are able to pick off your inside-50s and nullify your stoppage dominance?
Let’s not sugar coat it, Carlton must improve their turnover game to become a legitimate contender.
It is something Voss would desperately be working on behind the scenes.
THE SUNS
Most footy followers would be counting on a Carlton victory against Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium on Sunday.
But don’t forget that just six games ago the Suns toppled the Blues by 19 points on their home deck at Marvel Stadium.
Gold Coast ruckman Jarrod Witts missed that game, but a midfield group of Touk Miller, David Swallow, Brayden Fiorinni, a banged up Matthew Rowell and an emerging Noah Anderson towelled up the Blues at the contest.
Gold Coast won clearances 41-31 and outscored Carlton from stoppages by 16 points.
Yes, it’s a new season and the Blues have a new-look midfield who are in red hot form.
However, this could be more of a challenge for Voss and his troops than some might think.
With Pittonet under an injury cloud with a back complaint, Witts could take advantage in the ruck and disrupt Carlton’s recent centre-bounce dominance.
Witts has had the second-most hit-outs of any ruckman this year and this could test the Blues’ on-ballers.
It will be an opportunity to show their maturity and adapt if they are not being handed the ball on a silver platter from Pittonet.
Carlton can’t afford to take the Suns lightly.
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