Mick McGuane previews the preliminary final between Geelong and Brisbane
The Lions got out of jail with a remarkable comeback against the Giants last week, but the same won’t happen against Chris Scott’s Cats in a crunch preliminary final, writes Mick McGuane.
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Geelong and the Brisbane Lions have each won eight of their past 10 matches, but the premiership race will end for one of them on Saturday evening.
Can the Cats qualify for a third Grand Final in five years or will the Lions get through to give themselves a shot at redemption after finishing runners-up last year?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane puts his coaches’ hat on and details how he would attack the blockbuster preliminary final for each side.
IF I WAS GEELONG …
START STRONG
Brisbane has been the most dominant first quarter team in the competition this year, holding a 21-4 record in opening terms.
The Cats must be prepared for what’s coming and be revved up and ready to go from the first bounce to ensure they do not let their opponents get the jump.
I’d be putting it on the midfield group of Patrick Dangerfield, Tanner Bruhn, Max Holmes and Tom Stewart to set the tone early around the ball.
Dangerfield, in particular, is the side’s barometer and must be lively early even though strong physical attention will come from Brisbane’s tough and competitive onballer in Josh Dunkley.
The midfield group will have a big role to play not only in the first quarter but throughout the game, given Brisbane is also one of the best teams at gaining territory from their clearance and contest work at the coal face.
The Cats can’t give them an inch in there.
FORWARD FOCUS
Since round 16, Geelong has been the second-highest scoring team in the competition and has been highly efficient at hitting the scoreboard once inside-50.
But against the Lions, how they defend in that area of the ground will be just as important as how they attack.
The Cats forwards are capable of applying great pressure, including Gryan Miers, Shaun Mannagh, Brad Close and Tyson Stengle.
They need to bring their A-Game in that regard and try to lock the ball in Geelong’s half by generating forward-half intercepts.
Brisbane is so good at bouncing out of defence and moving the footy forward through uncontested marks.
GWS put itself in a strong position during last week’s semi-final by taking away those uncontested marks from the Lions and the Cats must do the same with red-hot pressure in the forward line and through the midfield.
EFFECTIVE TACKLES
When discussing pressure, coaching great Leigh Matthews always preached that the tackle is important — but only if it is effective.
“Broken tackles cost you premierships” is a phrase Matthews would emphasise in finals and those words are still ringing in my ears.
Brisbane has some strong-bodied midfielders in Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Cam Rayner at times, all of whom regularly break tackles.
Even Dayne Zorko and Brandon Starcevich in defence use their strength to get through opponents and kickstart the Lions’ offence from the back half.
Geelong has to stick its tackles — ball and all.
It can’t allow Brisbane players time and space to use the ball effectively on the back of broken tackles.
SPEED ON THE BALL
The Lions are similar to Port Adelaide in that they aim to win territory on the back of being strong at contest and then set up the ground aggressively in defence.
The Cats found a way through the Power in their qualifying final with slick end-to-end ball movement and could also trouble Brisbane if they take the game on at speed.
Geelong needs to try and make the ground as big as possible and ensure it challenges its opponents with its ball use and bounce off halfback.
The Cats did that when these two sides last met in round 6 and scored 38 points to 11 points from their defensive half as a result.
If they can produce those sort of numbers again, they’ll be well on their way to a Grand Final.
MAGNET BOARD
The returning Tom Stewart needs to be aware that Callum Ah Chee will be set for him when he’s in defence, so he’s best to start as a midfielder and then become a fold back defender and challenge Brisbane’s plans for the Cat’s star.
I’d be encouraging Jeremy Cameron to get high up the ground, knowing he’ll drag Ryan Lester with him.
That could provide opportunities for Shannon Neale and Ollie Henry, who are likely to get Jack Payne and Harris Andrews respectively.
If Henry is off the ground, Andrews will have to then play on one of the fleet-of-foot smalls, which won’t suit him unless Cameron plonks himself close to goal.
I’d send Jake Kolodjashnij to nullify the dangerous Charlie Cameron, along with entertaining the idea of having Tom Atkins track the ball-winning Lachie Neale around stoppages.
Atkins is a willing competitor and could help shutdown Neale, particularly if he gets off the chain.
IF I WERE THE BRISBANE LIONS …
THE CHALLENGE
Brisbane is a terrific territory team and has the ability to score once inside-50.
However, they’re not going to win the ball from every entry and it will be equally important that the Lions forwards work hard to defend Geelong’s ball movement from the back half.
That’s Eric Hipwood, Joe Daniher, Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Kai Lohmann and Ah Chee.
In their qualifying final win over Port Adelaide, the Cats were incredibly efficient and punishing with their transition play.
They moved the ball from halfback to inside-50 at an efficiency of 61 per cent — a season-high and well above the AFL average of 42 per cent.
From those halfback launches, Geelong was also able to score 39 per cent of the time.
It was another reminder that if your forwards don’t snap into defence against Geelong, the consequences can be huge.
IMPLEMENT A ROADBLOCK
The Lions will likely look to get Harris Andrews a match-up on Ollie Henry, but it wouldn’t surprise if he is matched up against one of the small forwards at times.
My message to Andrews would be: Let your opponent go up the ground, become our goalkeeper and your opponent on the way back.
If there’s a stoppage through the middle of the ground and Andrews’ small opponent pushes up to it, one of the Brisbane half-forwards like Lohmann or Jarrod Berry goes to the stoppage engage him.
If Geelong wins the ball and streams forward, Andrews will be there as a roadblock, either forcing the Cat’s ball movement off line but also ensuring Geelong players are unable to get goal-side and kick easy, out the back goals.
DEFENSIVE 50 STOPPAGES
In Geelong’s qualifying final against Port Adelaide, the Power were caught catnapping too often when it came to defensive 50 stoppages.
The Cats scored an incredible 31 points from forward 50 stoppages in that match — the second-most any team has recorded in a final.
Given that, the Lions players have to defend those stoppages like their life depends on it.
Geelong has an abundance of dangerous forwards and midfielders in those stoppage situations, from Jeremy Cameron to Patrick Dangerfield, Tyson Stengle and even Shaun Mannagh.
The Lions can’t drop their concentration for a second.
Accountability and discipline is a must.
Remember James Peatling’s second goal last week in the first quarter at a defensive 50 stoppage against a sleeping Dayne Zorko?
BACK OUR STRENGTH
When the Lions have been at their best this year, they have been a team that controls the footy and transitions through uncontested marks.
That ability to maintain time in possession and control the tempo of the game on the back of it will again be critical against the Cats.
Brisbane found a different way to win against Greater Western Sydney last week, when it only recorded 60 uncontested marks — its second-lowest tally of the season.
However, the Lions have been tough to beat when they have posted over 100 uncontested marks in matches this year.
MAGNET BOARD
The Lions have to be really conscious of the positioning of Stewart and Mark Blicavs, who generally work so well in tandem.
When Stewart starts in the middle, Blicavs rolls back to support the defence.
When Stewart spits back to join the defence, Max Holmes or Mitch Duncan are often released from halfback to onball roles.
When Stewart is in defence, Callum Ah Chee needs to be given the role of trying to curb his intercept influence.
Ryan Lester has to go all the way up the ground with Cameron, who can be so damaging with his lethal left-foot in transition for Geelong.
I’d get Josh Dunkley to go up against Dangerfield through the middle.
Dunkley is not as quick and dynamic as Dangerfield, but has the physical attributes to step across him and not allow Dangerfield to get first access to the footy in stoppage situations.
Zach Guthrie’s intercept ability for the Cats in defence can’t be underestimated, after he had eight intercept possessions against the Lions in round 6 and racked up 11 against Port Adelaide in the qualifying final.
He will also need some attention, so Rayner must be conscious of his positioning.
MICK’S TIP
Geelong by 27 points
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