Mick McGuane looks at the race for the eighth spot in finals and names the team most likely to win it
The Power have started the season brilliantly, but the Crows aren’t far behind and have bragging rights after a win in the Showdown. See who’s in Mick McGuane’s top 8 here.
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We might only be a third of the way through the season, but the top seven teams look just about locked in for September.
Collingwood and Melbourne are on top of their games and on top of the ladder, St Kilda has a good draw ahead which will help it, Brisbane and Port Adelaide have got themselves on a roll, Geelong has recovered from a sluggish start to the year and the Western Bulldogs remain dangerous.
It means the rest of the competition is in a race for eighth spot.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the eight teams searching for that last finals spot — if they play their cards right.
8th – CARLTON (4-3-1)
Stop sugar coating the expectations and telling us that it wouldn’t be a disaster to miss finals this year.
Both external and internal expectations at the start of the year had a September berth written all over them.
Coach Michael Voss has plenty to ponder given his side is a jack of all trades but a master of none at the moment.
Carlton has got the potential to hurt opposition sides on the scoreboard with its stoppage strength and turnover game.
Their best footy is good enough to finish in the top-eight, but they’re not bringing it consistently and when they don’t get it right they look mediocre.
The Blues have abandoned their stoppage scoring dominance from early last year, seemingly in search of a stronger and more sustainable turnover game.
But over the past four weeks, they rank 14th in the points from turnover differential, which is horrendous for a team eyeing off a finals berth.
They are not only not scoring from the turnovers they create, but more concerning they are too pedestrian in defensive transition.
They look slow through the middle of the ground and their opposition are punishing them the other way from their own turnovers.
Tough decisions need to be made at selection and Zac Fisher and Matthew Cottrell need to return to inject some speed.
If Voss rates Tom De Koning as highly as everyone else, bring him back, too.
If there is no room for De Koning as a key forward or No. 1 ruck, why not consider him as a key defender?
His brother has had some serious success in that role at Geelong.
9th – ESSENDON (4-4)
Near enough is not good enough if this Essendon side truly believes it belongs in this year’s finals race.
The Bombers coughed up a 28-point lead at three-quarter time against Collingwood in round 6 and a six-point lead in the final quarter against Port Adelaide in round 8.
They are not hard enough for long enough and have got to make games like those count.
A 27-point win over Melbourne in round 5 is a point of reference that suggests Brad Scott’s side is more than capable of beating any team on their day.
Offensively, Essendon ranks fourth in the competition for points for and points from turnover differential.
However, over the past three weeks the Bombers have shown that their defence is still a work in progress and a cause for concern against the better sides.
Since round 6, Essendon has ranked 16th for points against and 14th for opposition scores per inside 50.
They have also conceded the most inside 50s of any team because their work around the ball hasn’t been as sharp as it should be.
Personnel issues down back haven’t helped, either.
Jayden Laverde (shoulder) has clearly been missed, fellow key defender Zach Reid (hamstring) can’t get his body right and Jordan Ridley (concussion) is a huge out for this week’s clash with Brisbane.
But defence before attack is a philosophy that must continue to be rammed down the throats of players if this Essendon side wants to play finals this year.
10th – ADELAIDE (4-4)
I tipped the Crows to be big improvers this year and I like what I’ve seen from a defensive profile so far.
Matthew Nicks has done a fantastic job in moulding his team into a tight defensive unit.
They are well connected and snap into roles in spatial defence quickly, which is meaning opposition teams are finding it difficult to move the ball with any flair or speed.
Over the past five weeks, the Crows have ranked 2nd for stopping opposition points from turnovers, conceding just 35.2 points a game from that scoring source.
Continuity among the Adelaide defenders has helped, with Brodie Smith, Mitchell Hinge, Tom Doedee, Wayne Milera, Max Michalanney, Jordon Butts and Nick Murray having played 54 of a possible 56 games between them.
The more they play together, the better they will become.
The area that Adelaide needs to address to make it even better is its stoppage game.
It is losing clearances by an average of 5.6 a game (ranked 18th) and is conceding an average of 35.9 points from clearances a game (ranked 16th).
With the talent they have around the ball — led by ruckman Reilly O’Brien and on-ballers Rory Laird, Jordan Dawson — those numbers can be turned around pretty quickly.
If they can turn their stoppage game around the Crows will be right in contention.
11th – SYDNEY (3-5)
Last year’s grand finalists are on shaky ground — but it’s not entirely their own fault.
A big reason for Sydney’s success last season was its rock-solid defence.
But key defenders Dane Rampe (neck) and Paddy McCartin (concussion) have not been seen since round 4 and remain sidelined, while Tom McCartin missed two key games through concussion.
With the less experienced players the Swans are plugging their backline with, they have been conceding high scores and their ball security in the back half has been a major concern.
Since round 3, Sydney has conceded an average of 98.7 points against per game (ranked 16th) and is averaging 36 points against from defensive half turnovers (ranked 15th).
Poor decisions coming out of defence by generally good kicks like Nick Blakey and Jake Lloyd are gifting the opposition too many scores.
The midfielders — led by Luke Parker, Callum Mills, James Rowbottom and Errol Gulden — must also get to work.
The Swans’ contest game has been poor in recent weeks and they are not winning enough 50-50 contests, whether they be at ground level or in the air.
More contest and clearance wins would help Sydney’s territory game and protect the depleted defence.
Ruckman Tom Hickey must return to the team this week and bring some much needed aggression around the ball.
12th – FREMANTLE (3-5)
Was last week’s 69-point win over a battling Hawthorn a one-off or a turning point for the Dockers?
We will find out this weekend in what shapes as a crunch game against Sydney.
After a 2-5 start to the season, the turnaround against the Hawks was stark — most notably in Fremantle’s turnover game.
Justin Longmuir’s side scored a staggering 90 points from turnovers and 52 points from forward-half intercepts, which were both season-highs.
That is what good teams do — punish you on turnover with repeat inside-50 entries.
The Dockers also looked harder and tougher and played with a greater urgency when it came to winning the ball in contested situations.
They won the contested ball count by 20, which was another season-high, and also logged a season-high inside-50 differential of +11.
The key area that still needs work is the Dockers’ pressure game, which ranks 11th in the competition.
The mantra of ‘no time, no space’ when the opposition have the ball must return.
I’d also like to see the backline group of Luke Ryan, Brennan Cox, Alex Pearce, Hayden Young and Jordan Clark drive competitive standards and become more ruthless once again and become harder to play against as defenders.
The Dockers were the best team at stopping opposition sides from scoring once inside-50 last year, but have slid to 12th this season.
Time to change.
13th – GWS (3-5)
GWS has a giant problem and that is its team defence.
As much as the team has made some inroads in regards to their front half under new coach Adam Kingsley, nothing much has changed from a defensive standpoint.
The Giants are giving up 90.9 points against per game, ranking them 15th in the competition.
They are also conceding a score from 48 per cent of opposition inside-50s (ranked 16th) and are giving up 54.4 points a game from turnovers (ranked 14th).
That is not a defensive profile that is conducive to playing finals footy.
Harry Himmelberg’s bold move from defence back to the forward line to support Jesse Hogan has been a win for their forward line, but it has come at the expense of having another key defender.
Brent Daniels (11 goals) has shown he was sorely missed through injury last year and has added great pressure, while Hogan (16 goals) and Toby Greene (20 goals) have brought some individual brilliance.
The Giants are at a different stage of their development to some of these other clubs, but until they fix their team defence more pain will come and they won’t be climbing the ladder anytime soon.
14th – GOLD COAST (3-5)
There has been a much-needed ball movement shift from the Suns in the past month.
They’re playing with more speed, dare and risk and are looking more threatening on the back of a greater chaos-style of game.
Over the past four weeks, the Suns have ranked second in the competition for scoring points from defensive half chains and they sit fifth for scores per inside 50 over that period.
With Stuart Dew releasing the shackles, his players will now play more instinctive footy and start to believe in their attack.
I felt they moved the ball far too slowly with a kick-mark game in the opening rounds of the season to try and protect turnover.
The area that still needs work is the Suns’ ability to snap into defensive transition when they turn the ball over in their forward half.
Gold Coast ranks 15th in the competition for forward half intercepts.
The Suns defenders must react quicker and press higher up the ground to make the ground small when the opposition win the ball in their own forward line.
Gold Coast’s forwards must increase their forward 50 pressure on the opposition ball carrier in a bid to create more front half turnovers and therefore generate more scoring opportunities.
Until they master that, they won’t be making their finals debut.
15th – RICHMOND (2-5-1)
They might have an uphill battle ahead of them, but I’m not willing to write off Richmond just yet.
Damien Hardwick’s side looked like the Tigers of old in the second half against West Coast last week.
Yes, the Eagles were depleted and have copped a raft of heavy losses this year.
But we were looking for a change of method and some positional shifts from Richmond and we got them.
The Tigers scored a season-high 37 points from forward half intercepts against the Eagles and a season-high 64 points from forward half chains.
Hitting the scoreboard on the back of a strong, in-sync defensive structure and pressure in the forward half of the ground is exactly what this side looks like at its best.
Hardwick also spun the magnets.
Jayden Short went back into the midfield after spending most of the year in defence, Dustin Martin spent significant time onball where he can be more impressive and Marlion Pickett went from a wing to the forward line to add some much-needed pressure in that area of the ground.
The model is there going forward.
If the Tigers continue to believe and play a strong forward-half game, they are capable of turning their season around — and quickly.
MICK’S VERDICT
The Bombers are my pick to win the last spot in the top-eight.
Essendon’s fixture is favourable, with two games to come against each of West Coast and North Melbourne.
Bank those four games and that’s eight wins under your belt.
That would leave Essendon needing to win just five of its other 11 matches to qualify for September.
There is still work to do defensively, but the opportunity is there for Essendon to be a part of September action.
It’s something the Bombers faithful would like to see not wasted…..or will they?
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