Mick McGuane: Every club’s over-30s, who will retire and who should play on

Nat Fyfe, Matt Taberner, Michael Walters, Nathan Wilson, Travis Colyer and Joel Hamling are the only veterans on Fremantle’s list. Will the Dockers need to make any off-season hard calls?

It’s a task every club’s list manager faces each year. How is our list placed? Are we too top heavy with experience? Will all our superstars retire at once? How can we avoid that?

Football analyst Mick McGuane runs his eye over every club’s list demographic and assesses whether certain veterans should go on for one more or look to hang up the boots come season’s end.

ADELAIDE

Average age of 2023 list: 24.7

Competition rank: 16th

Players 30 or above: Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, Taylor Walker, Paul Seedsman

Goal for 2024:Top eight is a real possibility next year. They should re-sign Sloane and Tex as late as possible because both are only one serious injury away from their careers being over. The way they’ve used Sloane – his game time is only 69.8 per cent, as he generally starts off the ground and is then injected into the game in the second half – is intelligent. Brodie Smith is contracted, so he is going nowhere, while Walker has earned the right to play on. There were murmurings when he was kept goalless in the Showdown – is he needed? – as they still won. Walker has consistently delivered as a key forward this season and in nine of his 12 games he’s kicked two or more goals. Could he win the Coleman Medal? What a story that would be. Paul Seedsman has an important “life” decision to make. This is not about footy. He has had concussion issues and being a father he’s got the rest of his life to think about. He should and will retire.

Mick McGuane has been impressed by how the Crows have used Rory Sloane. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images

BRISBANE LIONS

Average age of 2023 list: 26.1

Competition rank: 5th

Players 30 or above: Jack Gunston, Ryan Lester, Jarryd Lyons, Lachie Neale, Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko

Goal for 2024: It’s crunch time. Does Gunston get the chance at another flag? Does Lachie Neale or Dayne Zorko win one? Time is running out, and the window’s closing for some. I think Gunston and Rich will play again this year – you need a squad mentality – but I wouldn’t gift them games. Lyons has great footy IQ and is an on-field traffic cop, but he can’t cover the ground anymore and can’t influence the game (averaging 5.3 disposals). He is contracted until the end of 2024 and is likely to play out the remaining time of his contract in the VFL. Ryan Lester might survive, he’s a good back-up who plays with good energy and urgency and can play on medium and small forwards. Where does Zorko play next year if another contract is given to him? If they can’t rely on Rich – who is exposed on fast-break footy – does he lock down a permanent half-back flankers role?

CARLTON

Average age of 2023 list: 25.6

Competition rank: 8th

Players 30 or above: Ed Curnow, Nic Newman

Goal for 2024: Time to regroup and believe. They Blues have played 34 players this season, so they’ve had a good look at who can take the club forward. Ball use is their biggest issue and Ed Curnow doesn’t help that cause. I said at the start of the year, for Carlton to improve Curnow can’t play games of footy. He’s played 12, so no surprise to me that if he’s getting a game they sit outside the eight. As loyal and serviceable he has been, I’d be shocked if he was given another contract. They won’t improve with him being 34 and playing next year, whereas Nic Newman I think will re-sign based on the role he has played this year. He has challenged and held his own against players such as Charlie Cameron and Toby Greene.

Nic Newman still has plenty of football left in him. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

COLLINGWOOD

Average age of 2023 list: 26.8

Competition rank: 2nd

Players 30 or above: Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott, Jeremy Howe, Brody Mihocek, Tom Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom

Goal for 2024: It’s go time. They’re in the premiership window this year and next – there is no excuses for Craig McRae – and all of his veterans should play on. Pendlebury’s guile and experience has been influential and he’s got a one-year deal. He’s still their fourth-highest goal assist player and Pendlebury brings a calmness to a group that wants to play chaos footy. Mason Cox as a ruck relief is currently in their best 22, Jeremy Howe is contracted, Brody Mihocek at 30 is getting better, Mitchell complements the Magpies’ game-style and his professional approach translates to consistent performance. His recruitment is justified, while Sidebottom brings experience and tireless gut-running to the often understated wing role. He compliments Josh Daicos and Hoskin-Elliott as role players on the wings.

ESSENDON

Average age of 2023 list: 25.2

Competition rank: 13th

Players 30 or above: Dyson Heppell, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Andrew Phillips, Dylan Shiel

Goal for 2024: Consistency is key. Like Taylor Walker three years ago, Dyson Heppell has reinvented himself and deserves a one-year extension. I can’t say the same with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. I believe he’s been gifted most of his six games this year and for selection integrity Brad Scott and his match committee finally realised they had to make a hard call. He won’t return to the AFL landscape unless he changes his body shape. I would be having an immediate tough conversation with Tippa and saying if you don’t show us you’re totally committed and disciplined in reducing your weight by 8-10kg then he won’t be given a new contract. Andrew Phillips complements Sam Draper and is worthy of another contract while Dylan Shiel will be part of Essendon going forward but maybe in a different role. Consistency is the key for Essendon – without it you can’t contend – and their willingness to chase and pressure the opposition is much improved.

Dyson Heppell’s role has evolved this year. Picture: Jonathan DiMaggio/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

FREMANTLE

Average age of 2023 list: 24.7

Competition rank: 17th

Players 30 or above: Nat Fyfe, Matt Taberner, Michael Walters, Nathan Wilson, Travis Colyer, Joel Hamling

Goal for 2024: Get healthy. There are doubts over the durability of Fyfe and Taberner and even Hamling in the twilight of their careers. Fyfe’s new contract to become a Docker for life is great from an emotional standpoint, but the reality is he hasn’t played a lot of footy lately. His influence on the scoreboard isn’t great when he’s considered an extra forward (3.2 for the year). It’s important he gets some luck from the footy gods as the Dockers need his competitiveness. Taberner complements Jye Amiss and Sam Sturt so he has to find a way to be more durable and play more often than he does. He’s contracted for 2024, so the medical staff has to find a way to get him on the park next year. Michael Walters’ (19.6) conversion sets him apart and he’s a big moments player. Wilson, Colyer and Hamling are under pressure to stay on the list because they need an eye on the future to complement where this group is going under the strong leadership of Pearce, Brayshaw and Serong. Fremantle need to make some hard calls on fragile players to free up some space.

GEELONG

Average age of 2023 list: 27.4

Competition rank: 1st

Players 30 or above: Mark Blicavs, Jeremy Cameron, Jon Ceglar, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie, Tom Hawkins, Gary Rohan, Isaac Smith, Rhys Stanley, Tom Stewart, Zach Tuohy, Sam Menegola

Goal for 2024: Is rebounding in 2024 real or fake? Blicavs, Cameron, Stewart are no-brainers to play on. Do they send Hawkins off in the right way this year? The decision should be left to him, like Buddy Franklin last year. If he thinks he can go again, why not? Gary Rohan is an interesting one. He provides forward 50m speed and pressure, but his consistency might play a part in contract talks. This also might be Isaac Smith’s last year. If they do miss the eight you suspect a hard call might be required to free up room for the likes of Bowes, Bruhn, Dempsey, Holmes and Clark, who all can play Smith’s role. If Stanley breaks down again it might be time to tap him on the shoulder even though their ruck depth is limited. Surely Geelong is in discussion with Tom De Koning’s management in an attempt to lure him to play alongside his brother. Zach Tuohy and Sam Menegola’s futures are up for debate. It’s been a frustrating season for Dangerfield and Duncan … but both players are critical for contested ball and ball use. Let’s hope their bodies enable them to keep playing because Geelong needs them.

Tom Hawkins should make a decision on his own future. Picture: James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images

GOLD COAST

Average age of 2023 list: 25.1

Competition rank: 15th

Players 30 or above: Levi Casboult, Sam Day, David Swallow, Jarrod Witts

Goal for 2024: Next year is about consistency and no regrets. There are no excuses now – they’ve played enough games together and are in an ideal age bracket, so playing finals is a must. Father time looks like it has caught up with Sam Day, so I’d be looking past him. Levi Casboult hasn’t influenced games like last year – he’s only kicked 10 goals and is averaging one per game. He needs to get more consistency in his game to deserve a new contract. David Swallow goes again because he’s a competitor. His output has been unheralded in a way – he’s their fourth-highest clearance player and second for tackles – and they trust him by giving him 80 per cent game time. Witts is a no-brainer to play on. A very understated 456 hitouts for the year and he’s important to the Suns’ midfielders getting first ball use.

GWS GIANTS

Average age of 2023 list: 25.3

Competition rank: 10th

Players 30 or above: Nick Haynes, Lachie Keeffe, Adam Kennedy, Daniel Lloyd, Callan Ward, Phil Davis

Goal for 2024: They’ve got to knock the door down next year. They’ve got a new coach, playing an exciting new game style and their consistency around effort is much better. Toby Greene is invested as their captain and the time he is spending to help develop some of the Giants youngsters needs to be applauded. He is desperate to play finals again. Keeffe provides great banter to the locker room while Haynes and Kennedy are contracted. Lloyd can kick clutch goals and his conversion this year (4.10) is an anomaly. Davis will finish up. His body unfortunately has failed him and he’ll be delisted and farewelled in an appropriate manner.

HAWTHORN

Average age of 2023 list: 24.3

Competition rank: 18th

Players 30 or above: Luke Breust

Goal for 2024: They’ll be just out of the eight next year – but 2025 will be a different conversation. Breust must go again. I love this bloke and always have. He hits the scoreboard, he’s opportunistic and has averaged two goals a game again this season. He’s only averaging 11 possessions in starvation corner, but has taken 28 marks inside 50m. He can find space in a phone box. No-brainer to keep him.

MELBOURNE

Average age of 2023 list: 25.9

Competition rank: 6th

Players 30 or above: Ben Brown, Max Gawn, Michael Hibberd, Steven May, Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham

Goal for 2024: Premiership windows close quickly. My message is don’t waste the talent you’ve got. But the way forward shouldn’t include Ben Brown. He has played only three games this year so the writing is on the wall. Jacob van Rooyen, Bayley Fritsch plus the mobility of Tom McDonald or Harrison Petty are better options for Simon Goodwin to use up forward as opposed to the straight-line leading Brown. He looks an old 30-year-old and might need to find a third AFL home in the trade period to prolong his AFL career. Michael Hibberd is fighting for his footy life, but brings a willingness to compete when he plays down back. Kyle Chandler has gone past Jake Melksham, so his contract renewal is unlikely, while May, McDonald and Gawn are no-brainers to go again.

Max Gawn is a certainty to play on in 2024. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

NORTH MELBOURNE

Average age of 2023 list: 25.3

Competition rank: 9th

Players 30 or above: Ben Cunnington, Todd Goldstein, Hugh Greenwood, Aaron Hall, Liam Shiels, Jack Ziebell

Goal for 2024: Jack Ziebell’s stats look good, but that’s inflated due to a lot of easy kicks from kick-ins. He’ll finish a one-club player and, as harsh as it sounds, North Melbourne needs to have a strong conversation with him at the end of this year. Aaron Hall has become a list clogger and needs to be moved on while Liam Shiels has justified his selection as a rookie this year but a hard call is needed there, too. Ben Cunnington must find a way to get fitter to stay in the game for longer even though he has had to battle with health issues. He is much loved and respected, but there is no room for well-paid individuals to play spare-part roles. As for Goldstein, what a loyal servant he has been. He keeps pumping minutes out and should go around again at North.

PORT ADELAIDE

Average age of 2023 list: 25.7

Competition rank: 7th

Players 30 or above: Travis Boak, Charlie Dixon, Tom Jonas, Scott Lycett, Trent McKenzie

Goal for 2024: Is a dynasty forming before our eyes? List manager Jason Cripps should be locking down Rozee and Butters for the next five or six years now (like Jason Horne-Francis) – not when their deals expire next year. Boak should keep playing for as long as he can. He prepares well, is universally respected and his output is consistent. Dixon straightens them up he will get an extension, Lycett’s past month as an aggressive ruckman has well and truly given him some currency to go around again, and you can also lock in McKenzie for 2024. The big decision centres on the captain, Tom Jonas. He has given great service but he will surely be tapped on the shoulder to say your time is up. The emergence of Bergman, Drew, Houston and role players like McEntee have been significant.

Travis Boak is still a valuable player for Port Adelaide. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

RICHMOND

Average age of 2023 list: 26.7

Competition rank: 3rd

Players 30 or above: Nathan Broad, Trent Cotchin, Dylan Grimes, Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin, Marlion Pickett, Dion Prestia, Jack Riewoldt, Robbie Tarrant

Goal for 2024: Jack Riewoldt started the year needing Tom Lynch. He hasn’t had Tom Lynch for most of the season and yet Jack has had 40 shots at goal from 13 games and taken the most marks inside 50m (31) for the Tigers. He’s provided a target and at times been very selfless. He’s fought back off the canvas and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has one more year left in him. As for Cotchin, when you start writing a book – which he has done – maybe you’re checked out a little bit. I think Cotch will be selfless and walk away from the game on his terms. Could he go again? Probably. But as we all know, once you hit the wall you stay hit. Tarrant will go, too. But the Tigers’ slogan for 2024 should be ‘Contend again’. They’ve let so many games slip in last quarters (blowing three three-quarter time leads) and so they’re doing a lot right for 90 minutes – just not 120.

Trent Cotchin is most likely playing his last season. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

ST KILDA

Average age of 2023 list: 25.2

Competition rank: 14th

Players 30 or above: Seb Ross, Tom Campbell

Goal for 2024: They need support for Rowan Marshall. Is Tom Campbell on the list purely as an insurance? Or should they sacrifice him to create cap space for a crack at Tom De Koning? Or do they make Mitch Owens or Anthony Caminiti a hybrid ruckman who can get around the ground like a Leigh Brown did at Collingwood in 2010. They Saints should aggressively pursue De Koning as Ross Lyon’s ability to challenge and hard edge is exactly what he needs. The Saints have used only 28 players this year, which is a credit to their sports science program. Seb Ross’s work-rate and professionalism – he prepares as well as anyone – is impressive. His ball use is questionable at times but he will play on in 2024 after hitting a contract trigger.

SYDNEY

Average age of 2023 list: 25.3

Competition rank: 11th

Players 30 or above: Robbie Fox, Lance Franklin, Tom Hickey, Luke Parker, Dane Rampe, Sam Reid

Goal for 2024: It’s time to tap Buddy Franklin – a future Hall of Famer – on the shoulder. I lived it with Peter Daicos at the end of 1993 and strong coaches and list managers are employed to make the hard calls. For the benefit of the future he has to allow McDonald, McLean, Papley and Heeney to own that forward line. Also it might be just what Joel Amartey needs to help fast track his growth as a player. The shackles for those players might come off as they would no longer live in Buddy’s shadow. If Buddy goes then Reid probably gets a one-year contract. Is Tom Hickey’s body cooked? It’s looked like that at times. Is Tom De Koning on the Swans’ radar? Good ruckmen are hard to find. Expect Fox, Parker, and Rampe to play on.

Lance Franklin is coming to the end of a great career. Picture: Phil Hillyard

WEST COAST

Average age of 2023 list: 25.2

Competition rank: 12th

Players 30 or above: Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Andrew Gaff, Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey, Nic Naitanui

Goal for 2024: Tough calls on elder statesmen allows younger players to get opportunities. The Eagles list needs a drastic overhaul. Tough decisions need to be made for the betterment of the clubs short and long term future. It’s time for the much-respected Hurn to retire. He has been such a consistent player but at 35 years of age it’s time to look beyond him. Naitanui is contracted but has played only eight games in 2022-23 to this point and that’s not likely to change. Would another club take him? Or would they be spooked by St Kilda’s decision to take a risk on a banged-up Dan Hannebery? Cripps deserves another contract as he is important to the Eagles’ forward line, while they must sign McGovern. Gaff’s experience and professionalism are still important while they face a tough call on Shuey. I love what he’s done – he was the Eagles’ best player in the 2018 grand final – but do they give him another chance to recalibrate from his soft tissue injuries? As harsh as it sounds I wouldn’t be offering him a new contract. Salary cap room needs to be created so the Eagles can be aggressive in the trade period.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Average age of 2023 list: 26.7

Competition rank: 4th

Players 30 or above: Josh Bruce, Taylor Duryea, Jason Johannisen, Liam Jones, Alex Keath, Tom Liberatore, Rory Lobb, Adam Treloar

Goal for 2024: Defence is not the answer for Josh Bruce, and with no spots in the front half there’s no spot for him on the 2024 list. I like what Taylor Duryea stands for; his voice and on field leadership is important. He has an awareness of what a strong defensive structure looks like and demands players around him to set up accordingly. He will get another one-year deal. Alex Keath should also get one. He worked hard over summer to change his body shape and has played 10 games this year. Liam Jones, who signed a three-year contract, has justified his reconnection to AFL footy while Liberatore is a star and could go on for another two or three years the way he is playing. There won’t be much movement at the Dogs, who have used 34 players this year. The question is can they bridge the gap with the top teams?