Mick McGuane: Essendon’s problems laid bare and what Brad Scott must do to fix them
Essendon has three players in the top 10 worst defensive one-on-one loss percentages for the season. MICK McGUANE unpacks the damning backline stats crippling the Bombers.
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The fans are frustrated and fair enough.
After a promising first half of the season, Essendon has fallen in a hole with just three wins from its past 10 matches.
So what has gone wrong and what does coach Brad Scott need to do to get this mighty club back winning finals in September?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane still thinks the Bombers are on the right track, but there is plenty of room for improvement.
THE GOOD AND THE BAD
Footy has increasingly become a territory game and you can’t fault what the Bombers are doing in that area.
They rank fourth for inside-50 differential — behind only the Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide.
That’s providing them with ample scoring opportunities.
However, Essendon ranks a lowly 16th for converting inside-50 entries into scores.
That’s not good enough.
Ladder-leader Sydney has seven players who have booted 20 or more goals this season.
The Bombers have only two — Kyle Langford (39.25) and Jake Stringer (39.22).
Scott has to find a better mix in front of the ball and ensure players in that area of the ground conform to their roles.
Jade Gresham was a big free agent signing last October but has managed just 18.10 from 20 games.
Contrast that to Sydney’s Tom Papley, who has booted 30.29 from two less matches.
Gresham needs to be seriously challenged around his workrate and his ability to conform to the role his team needs him to play.
He goes kick-chasing and is selfish at times when kicking a goal is a possibility.
Gresham is getting high up the ground, but he’s not getting back inside-50 quickly enough to apply ground ball representation or tackling pressure on the opposition when they intercept the ball.
Harrison Jones has featured on a wing at times this year, but he would be in my forward line group given he has an aerial presence that can trouble opponents.
Importantly, he should also be forming a strong relationship with Nate Caddy into the future.
Rising Star nominee Caddy must be played in every game he’s available in the short term, after taking the spot of Peter Wright.
Caddy is brave and competitive — exactly what you want from your key forwards.
I can’t see Wright getting back into the senior team given his commitment to the contest.
He has become cumbersome in his movements and his work rate and competitiveness is not consistent enough.
WHO IS THE NEXT ‘TIPPA’?
Since Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti’s last full season in 2021, Essendon has been sorely lacking a highly-creative and high-pressure small forward.
Who is going to step up and make that position their own?
Matt Guelfi’s battled injury issues which have restricted him to just 12 games this year but is their most likely candidate.
The question is, who else is there to support him?
Is Jye Menzie the solution? Alwyn Davey Jnr? Archie Perkins?
Or will it be Next Generation Academy member Isaac Kako, who is a first-round draft prospect for Essendon in November?
if I was to use one bit of footage to show why i think Isaac Kako is the guy the Dons should be taking with their first pick it would be this.
— Silent ðŸ (@SilentGhost263) June 13, 2024
Credit to Footy Stuff on YT. great channel for footage on potential draftees. pic.twitter.com/rHhi8dgF9a
At his best, McDonald-Tipungwuti would make things happen inside-50, either through his ball use or his ability to snap into defensive transition and create turnovers with his pressure and tackling.
The best teams in the competition all have small forwards who lay high numbers of tackles inside 50.
Sam Switkowski has laid 33 tackles inside the arc for Fremantle, Rhylee West has applied 32 for the Western Bulldogs and Brent Daniels has recorded 28 for Greater Western Sydney.
At Essendon, mid-sized marking forward Kyle Langford is the side’s top-ranked player for tackles inside-50 with 29 and Jake Stringer has 27 to his name.
The only other Bomber to average at least one tackle a game inside-50 is Guelfi, who has laid 20 from his 12 matches.
Applying strong frontline pressure in your forward 50 is a non-negotiable.
It challenges the opposition’s ball movement and, more importantly, helps other teammates set up the ground.
Without it, Essendon’s backline will continue to be exposed.
‘SICK TO DEATH’ OF THIS
Generating repeat inside-50 entries can put significant pressure on the opposition’s defence — but only if you do it in the right way.
I’m sick to death of seeing Essendon re-enter its forward 50 in a dumb and predictable manner.
Picture this: There is a stoppage in Essendon’s forward 50, the opposition win it and bomb it out to a waiting Mason Redman or Andy McGrath who have pressed up to intercept it.
Rather than using the lateral option to quickly find a player in space in the corridor, Redman, in particular, plays on quickly and kicks the ball back to the density of numbers where the stoppage was.
It’s incompetent and has to change.
Playing straight-line footy won’t cut it and is one reason why Essendon is not capitalising on its territory wins.
Because they don’t get that decision-making right going inside-50, the opposition is then bouncing the ball back out and Essendon’s ability to defend transition is not where it should be.
The Bombers need halfbacks who use the ball better by foot.
Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston is one of the best, so if he wants to return to Victoria then Essendon should get serious and insert itself in the race for his services.
DEFENCE NOT UP TO SCRATCH
The lack of pressure up the ground isn’t doing Essendon’s defence any favours and Scott’s side has the fourth-worst percentage in the competition because of the scores it is coughing up.
The Bombers rank 14th for scores against, conceding an average of 87.6 points a game.
The numbers are even worse when it comes to scores per inside-50, ranking 15th ahead of only Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne.
That profile has to change and it not only comes down to the personnel in the backline but also the side’s inability to defend or slow down opposition ball movement.
Essendon invested heavily in free agent Ben McKay last October, but he has one of the worst one-on-one contest loss rates of any defender in the competition.
McKay has been involved in 64 one-on-one contests in defensive 50 and has lost 22 of them.
Jayden Laverde is not much better, with 13 losses from 38 one-on-one contests.
While those players need to be better in the contest, their team needs to improve at protecting them with improved defensive structure and intent further up the ground.
Add in Jordan Ridley, who has been restricted to nine games due to injury this year and its little wonder the Bombers are giving opposition sides easy looks inside-50.
WHERE’S THE A-GRADERS?
The stars are playing as big a role as ever in the AFL this season.
So who are Essendon’s guns?
Outside of captain Zach Merrett, it’s hard to pick another genuine A-Grader of the competition.
Since 2017, Merrett has earned All-Australian honours three times.
The only other Bombers to have received blazers over that period are Darcy Parish, Michael Hurley and Joe Daniher.
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Parish is largely an accumulator whose defensive intent is questionable, Hurley retired in 2022 and Daniher has kicked 45 goals for Brisbane this year.
Merrett is professional, has high standards and is driven to succeed.
It’s the reason why he is captain and one of the most respected midfielders in the competition.
But not enough others seem to want to join in and take their games to another level.
The murmurings of contentment and a ‘Party Boy’ culture at Tullamarine — rather than one of hard work and sacrifice — might be right.
CHANGE IS COMING
The Bombers’ list is likely to look a lot different next year — and it needs to if this side is to improve.
Out-of-contract forward Jake Stringer has done enough to earn himself a new deal, but there are others who could be headed for the door.
Dyson Heppell has already announced his retirement, Todd Goldstein is sure to follow, Sam Weideman’s time looks up and Nick Hind’s future is up in the air.
Dylan Shiel is contracted for one more season but had interest from St Kilda during the trade period last year, while Ben Hobbs (2025) and Elijah Tsatas (2026) could also be put on the trade table despite being contracted.
Hobbs is tough but is more of a forward-midfielder than a midfielder-forward and doesn’t deliver enough to be considered in Essendon’s best 22 every week.
Tsatas is out of the team because his kicking is poor and that’s going to be tough to correct.
He finds the footy at VFL but at AFL level my concern is he can fuel the opposition’s turnover game due to his kicking inadequacies.
BEAT SYDNEY OR BUST
There’s still a glimmer of hope for Essendon in this year’s finals race if the Bombers can win their final two games — starting with ladder-leader Sydney at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.
It has to start with contest.
Essendon must win the contested possession count and score from its stoppage wins – two things which Scott’s side generally performs well in when they win.
Contest wins will generate good territory and smarter ball use going inside-50 would test a Swans defence that has been conceding heavy scores over the past six weeks.
With their ball movement, the Bombers should adopt the template that other teams have successfully shown against Sydney over recent months.
Play a controlled kick-mark game and avoid contests down the line.
Taking away the Swans desire for a chaos game is something Scott should employ.
Defensively, the Bombers should consider moving away from spatial defence and instead revert to man-on-man approach around the ground.
That’s what Port Adelaide did against the Swans to great effect a fortnight ago.
Scott said on Tuesday that his side had to “go out and fight like our life depends on it” this week.
Let’s see if his words translate into actions on the big stage on Friday night.
MICK’S TOP 5 GOALS AFTER THE SIREN
In honour of Mac Andrew’s winning goal after the siren for the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, Mick took a look back at all 23 matchwinning goals which have been kicked after the siren in the past 20 years.
Here’s his top-five.
1. Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide v Carlton, Round 7, 2020)
It’s a shame it was Covid times and there weren’t more people at the Gabba to see this. But when we needed some magic to lighten the mood during difficult times, Gray provided it with a brilliant drop punt from the boundary line to break Blues’ hearts.
2. Jack Newnes (Carlton v Fremantle, Round 12, 2020)
Just weeks after being on the receiving end of a loss after the siren, the Blues pinched one themselves. I’m still not sure why Newnes received the down-field free kick over Michael Gibbons who was closer to the boundary line, but he nailed the shot from one of the most difficult pockets in the AFL on a wet and slippery night at Perth Stadium.
3. Luke Shuey (West Coast v Port Adelaide, Elimination Final, 2017)
It was a controversial free kick for a high tackle from Jared Polec which led to this shot on goal. It was awarded with 20 seconds left in the second period of extra time, the Eagles trailing by four points. As Shuey does, he took the kick with great composure and it never looked like missing. He was a player who could be trusted in a time of need.
4. Dan Houston (Port Adelaide v Essendon, Round 16, 2023)
After taking a sliding mark on the 50m line, Houston went back and bombed home a monster goal. On a wet night, with heavy legs late in the game, he hit the ball as flush as possible. There was a pack of six Essendon players who flew for the footy on the goal line, but a score review confirmed they had touched it just inches behind the line.
5. Jamie Elliott (Collingwood v Essendon, Round 19, 2022)
From a kick-in with just 45 seconds to go, the Magpies transitioned the ball end-to-end and into the arms of Elliott inside-50. The siren sounded as he began his approach, but from a difficult angle on the boundary line he remained composed and executed his routine perfectly to sink an old rival.
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