Mick McGuane: Carlton v Port Adelaide preview, why Melbourne’s era is over, Hot Takes
There was no Connor Rozee last time the Blues and Power faced off, and that looms as one of a few reasons why MICK MCGUANE is backing the Power to cause an upset in Melbourne.
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The spotlight is firmly on Friday night’s huge clash between Carlton and Port Adelaide.
The Blues are fighting to solidify their top-four spot after an unconvincing past three weeks, while the Power are in a battle just to feature in September amid a tough run home.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a look at the two teams and where this clash will be won and lost.
He also asks why the heat is being turned up on Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley.
Plus, what is wrong with Melbourne? And see Mick’s latest hot takes below.
CARLTON
STRENGTH
It’s all about the engine room for the Blues.
The loss of ruckman Tom De Koning to a foot injury hurts, but it also presents a great opportunity for Marc Pittonet.
I’ve always felt that ‘Pitto’ plays his best when he’s a solo ruck, anyway.
He gets his chance to show what he can do alone over the final five weeks of the home-and-away season.
The responsibility will firmly be on Pittonet to get the engine started, with midfielders Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and Matt Kennedy at his feet.
When Carlton and Port Adelaide last met in round 12, the Blues scored a whopping 7.1 (43) from clearances in the final quarter alone to run away with the game.
They had De Koning that night, but showed they have the midfield depth to take it up to Port Adelaide when they are at their combative best around stoppage.
Overall this season, the Blues rank No. 1 in the competition for contested possession differential, which is a facet of the game that always stands up in finals.
They also rank sixth for clearance differential.
If Carlton can win the contest and stoppage battle, they’ll get territory to supply their two key forwards in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay — who are hard to curtail if they get easy looks.
WEAKNESS
As good as the Blues can be at winning stoppages, they’re not great at defending stoppage loss.
They rank 18th in the competition for points against from stoppages, conceding an average of 41.9 points a game from the score source.
That has been a worry for much of the season, but it is particularly relevant this week given Port Adelaide’s strength in that area.
The Power rank fifth in the competition for clearance differential and have the ability to score freely from those stoppage wins.
If the Carlton midfielder’s don’t snap into a defensive mindset when they lose a clearance, their defence will again leak like a sieve.
Connor Rozee — who missed the round 12 clash — along with the likes of Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis will make sure of that.
The Blues’ inability to defend stoppage losses is a key factor in why they rank 14th in the competition for points against.
Carlton will also need to ensure it defends the corridor well, like it did against Port Adelaide in round 12.
The Power like to take the direct route through the middle of the ground and defending opposition ball movement has been another weakness for the Blues for most of the year.
They rank 15th in the competition for defending opposition transition from halfback to inside-50.
The Blues are at their best when they force their opposition to turn the ball over and score on the back of that.
Carlton’s turnover game is in good shape and is a major reason as to why they sit second on the ladder, so applying great pressure and setting up the ground to generate turnovers will be a major focus of coach Michael Voss.
PORT ADELAIDE
STRENGTH
Much like Carlton, it’s the midfield that drives the Power — ensuring one hell of a battle at the coalface in this clash.
Port Adelaide is at its best when it dominates clearance through anticipation, sure ball-handling skills, quick hands and explosive breakaway speed from congestion.
Ivan Soldo took charge of the ruck duties when these teams last met in round 12, but he’s sidelined with a knee injury.
That means it’s over to Jordon Sweet, who must be aggressive against Pittonet and provide plenty of opportunities for Rozee, Butters, Wines and Horne-Francis to get first hands on the ball.
Curtailing Cripps will also be key for Port Adelaide.
Wines and Willem Drew must be the strong and physical midfielders when opposed to the Carlton captain.
On the back of their deep midfield, the Power are historically a strong territory team.
They rank third in the competition for inside-50 differential this year and sixth for time in forward half differential.
Get that area of their game right and Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades and the returning Todd Marshall will back themselves against a Carlton defence that could be either unsettled or underprepared.
Small forward Willie Rioli — who kicked two goals in his return from injury last week — is also a handy addition, having missed the round 12 clash.
He could cause some headaches for the Blues’ defenders.
WEAKNESS
Transitioning the ball.
Carlton was able to stifle the Power’s ball movement and block the corridor in round 12, seeing the side’s scoring dry up.
In that encounter, only five of Port Adelaide’s 41 possession chains which originated in defensive 50 resulted in inside-50s.
The important returns of Kane Farrell and Lachie Jones — to complement Dan Houston — should help rectify that.
The Power must get the ball in the hands of those three players to kickstart their ball movement from the back half.
The other question mark over Port Adelaide is whether they punish the opposition enough on the scoreboard, given the strong front-half game they possess.
They rank 12th for points from turnovers this season — including 15th since round 14.
The midfield-to-forward connection is clearly not where Port would want it to be — and neither is the accuracy from the forwards.
The Power ranks 18th for scoring accuracy at just 43 per cent.
That hurts.
Taking your opportunities in front of goal can generate enthusiasm within the group, but missing easy shots can zap the energy out of the team.
MICK’S TIP
Port Adelaide by 6 points.
The Power looks a value outsider in this match. Both Rozee and Rioli missed last time these two teams played and should add plenty to the midfield and forward half. On a fast deck at Marvel Stadium, Port’s speed could be a factor in what is a must-win game for the visitors. The Blues’ defensive woes are still a worry — and are holding them back from being a genuine contender this season.
ANOTHER THOUGHT …
WHY IS THE HEAT ON HINKLEY?
It’s time to put the discussion around Ken Hinkley’s future on ice.
Why there is continual negative commentary about the Power coach, I cannot understand.
Here’s the facts.
Since his first season in 2013, Hinkley holds a home-and-away winning record of 60.63 per cent and the only two clubs he has recorded more losses than wins against are Adelaide and Geelong.
That says to me that he knows the opposition well and his planning, organisation and selection of the team generally holds sway.
Winning coaches are hard to find and the argument that the message might be getting stale after so long in the chair doesn’t hold up for teams that remain above the win-loss ledger and inside the top-eight.
Hinkley still has one year remaining on his current contract and deserves to at least see that out.
The knock on his finals record — which stands at 5-7 — is somewhat justified.
However, all matches in September are incredibly difficult to win.
Let’s see what the Power can do in finals this year — if they make it — before we get caught up questioning the coach.
THE DEMONS FACING THEIR DEMONS
Melbourne is facing an uphill battle to play finals, with a must-win game on the cards against Greater Western Sydney on Sunday.
Mick McGuane has answers to some of the burning questions about the Demons.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH MELBOURNE?
The Demons haven’t fixed what’s long been broken — and that’s their midfield-forward connection.
From rounds 10-24 last season, the Demons’ scoring profile ranked 12th in the competition.
They’ve continued in a similar vein this year, ranking 14th in scores for.
They are far too reliant on their defensive strength to win games of footy.
Melbourne has been able to improve its score per inside-50 percentage this year, some of which can be put down to Jacob Van Rooyen elevating his game.
However, Van Rooyen (25 goals) is one of only three Demons to have kicked more than 15 goals this season, with the other two being Bayley Frisch (35 goals) and Kysaiah Pickett (27 goals).
There are a number of other forwards on the playing list who could be considered ‘dead wood’.
Ben Brown was a premiership player in 2021 but has had a fall from grace since, not helped by injury issues.
Josh Schache has played just one senior game this season — in opening round — and recruit Shane McAdam has featured at AFL level on only three occasions.
The Demons have used Harrison Petty to support Van Rooyen — without success.
Petty has managed just 5.13 from 15 matches.
With the lack of quality key forwards on their list, it’s little wonder Melbourne has the issues it does.
It’s not all coach Simon Goodwin’s fault.
He can only work with what he’s got and it’s impossible to coach skill errors and poor decision making.
HAVE THE DEMONS MISSED THEIR WINDOW TO WIN ANOTHER PREMIERSHIP?
As far as I see it, this era is over.
Max Gawn and Steven May are both 32 and even Jack Viney is now on the wrong side of 30.
The Demons don’t look a legitimate premiership contender this year and those players — and others — will be another year older next season.
The other concern outside of the ageing stars is a midfield that looks increasingly pedestrian.
Let’s hope that Christian Petracca can return from injury and get back to his best in 2025, but I’ve got real concerns over Clayton Oliver.
SHOULD MELBOURNE TRADE CLAYTON OLIVER?
I wouldn’t be afraid to entertain a trade — if another club is willing to take him on knowing the baggage that comes with the midfielder.
The big question I’ve got is: Will the Demons ever see the player that they gave a seven-year deal again?
We know the interrupted pre-season he had due to off-field issues, but with five rounds remaining in the home and away campaign he still looks out of shape and consequently can’t run and transition for long periods of the game.
Even his stoppage game has taken a hit as he isn’t as hard and as nimble on his feet as he was when in his prime.
Having just turned 27 this week, Oliver is averaging his lowest numbers of disposals (23.5 per game), contested possessions (10.9 per game), clearances (4.3 per game) and ranking points (86 per game) since his debut season in 2016.
Oliver ranked as the No. 7 player in the competition last year, but sits at 105 this season.
I was as big a fan of Oliver as anyone over the past three years, but right now he is a shadow of his former self.
Does Goodwin think he can return to his All-Australian levels?
Has Oliver got the self-discipline to resurrect his career going forward?
If the answer is a big “no” to those two questions at season’s end, it might be time for a change of scenery in Adelaide or Geelong.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
GOOD
Quality footy. Last Sunday’s clash between the Brisbane Lions and Sydney was brilliant. It was two outstanding teams having a crack in a high-octane game which had big moments late, including Harris Andrews’ heroics.
BAD
Collingwood. The reigning premiers are looking slow and reactive, have lost their pressure intent and couldn’t defend Hawthorn’s forward handball game last week. The appetite to defend has gone missing and must be quickly rediscovered if Collingwood is to keep its finals aspirations alive in 2024.
UGLY
Third-parties forcing players from the field. Suggestions that AFL spotters or umpires should be able direct players to leave the ground for concussion assessments are crazy. There are plenty of collisions in football that don’t result in concussions. Such decisions are best left in the hands of club doctors.
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