Mark Robinson: Ken Hinkley lives without the ultimate reward, can his stars deliver it finally this September?
Finals football separates the good from the great. Mark Robinson writes, for Ken Hinkley to become a coaching great, his destiny lies in the hands of Port’s dynamic midfield superstars.
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Finals football has always separated the men from the boys and the good from the great.
In this space, Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley is the ‘good’ and his brilliant batch of midfielders – Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis – are the ‘boys’.
This September, elevation to men and to greatness beckons them both.
Hinkley, firstly, is a good coach, a very good coach, and four top-four finishes on the ladder in the past five years is testament to how good he is. But the title he carries at present is not that of ‘premiership coach’.
Rather, the man who said he was the ‘right man standing’ when others suggested he was the ‘last man standing’ when he was appointed to the basket-case club in 2012, holds the record of most games coached without reaching a grand final.
He is at 259 games, ahead of Bill Stephen (Fitzroy and Essendon) on 258 games, Brad Scott (North Melbourne and Essendon) on 257 games, and Terry Wallace (Western Bulldogs and Richmond) on 247 games.
His passion, longevity and win-loss record in home and away matches of 61 per cent is mighty admirable, but he lives without the ultimate reward.
His destiny this September is in the hands of Rozee, Butters and Horne-Francis.
It’s a team game and defenders have to stop and forwards have to score, but if his trio of dynamic and match-shaping midfielders don’t perform near their peak, the reality is Port doesn’t win the flag.
Can they stand up, starting with Geelong this week?
Four-time Hawthorn premiership player Jordan Lewis says the next month will help define them as players.
“I always think that the coach gets you to a certain point where they really don’t have any control over how you perform in big games,” he said.
“The player has every say in how he performs in big games.
“The coach can get you there and give you the opportunity, it’s what you do with that opportunity and whether that makes you a good player or a great player. It’s now up to the player, the coach can’t do much now.
“It’s their chance to be in conversation with the great midfield groups of the competition, past and present.”
Few clubs have had the depth of midfield talent that Port’s possesses.
The most heralded this century are Cox, Judd, Kerr, Cousins and Fletcher at West Coast. At Geelong, there was Ottens, Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Corey and Ling. More recently, Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Brayshaw at Melbourne.
The Port gang, which includes ever reliable Ollie Wines, Willem Drew and improved ruckman Jordon Sweet, is not close to being considered in that conversation. We optimistically add, not yet.
“The great midfields wait until September,” Lewis said. “It all means not much until September. For a player, you know people are watching, you have to perform when people are watching. Everyone can perform in Round 14 in any season, and no-one remembers, but everyone remembers finals games.
“Alastair Clarkson always said reputations were made in finals, and you knew that as a player.”
Port Adelaide was bounced in straight sets in 2023. Rozee was 23-years-old. Butters was 23. And Horne-Francis was only 20.
A year older, they are more hardened, capable and wiser to the experience.
“What happened last year certainly helps them,” Lewis said. “It calms their nerves more than anything. As a player, you build it up to be as big as anything you’ve experienced in your life, but when you actually play, it’s like, it’s not that bad. That’s what experience teaches you.”
Asked his verdict for this week, Lewis said: “Port should smash them in the middle.”
“Look, if Geelong can win that battle, they win the game. But if Port wins the midfield, they’ll win. That’s how important that part of the ground is.”
The player he is most animated about is Horne-Francis.
He can play as a burst midfielder, a scavenging half-forward or the target player out of goalsquare, and be match-wining in all three positions.
“I love Horne-Francis, I get the feeling he doesn’t give a f--- about the opposition” Lewis said. “I think he could be the player of the finals series if they run the table.
“I like Port Adelaide a lot. They’ve got the right mix of ball-hunters, outside players, taggers, explosive players, players who go forward … it’s a good balance.”
Much has changed at both teams since their previous encounter in Round 9.
Port dominated the first half of that match at GMHBA Stadium and Geelong raged in the second half. The margin was six points to Port Adelaide.
This week, Port will be without their generators at half-back, Dan Houston and Kane Farrell, which could be pivotal, while Esava Ratugolea was a defender in Round 9 and now plays forward. And Rozee, Ivan Soldo and Sweet missed with injury.
Geelong has certainly evolved. The Cats midfield group that night contained Cam Guthrie, Brandan Parfitt, Tom Atkins, Jhye Clarke, Oisin Mullin (who tracked Horne-Francis) and ruckman Rhys Stanley was subbed out early.
Patrick Dangerfield and Tanner Bruhn didn’t play, while Tom Stewart got his first dose of a forward tag with Jed McEntee annoying him.
Stewart is now a midfielder, Jack Bowes has emerged, the skipper is back, so is Bruhn, Max Holmes floats in and out from half-back, and Atkins will play inside.
Up forward, Tom Hawkins won’t be there and Shaun Mannagh and Shannon Neale will be.
So, personnel change for both clubs is substantial.
The numbers display Port’s point of difference.
They are No. 4 in clearance differential and Geelong is 12th, and Port is No. 1 for clearance to score and the Cats 13th.
If Port was better accurate in front of goal, their point of difference would be even more prominent.
Conversely, and why this contest should be a doozy, the Cats are the third hardest team at allowing a clearance to get to the scoreboard.
That’s Scott’s tactical brilliance at play.
The brilliance of Dangerfield in the second half of the season has also clearly improved the team’s stoppage profile.
The average clearance differential from Rounds 0-16 had them ranked 18th. From Rounds 17-24 the ranking was 4th. The end result had them 12th.
Mostly always, the result is dictated by what happens in the middle.
The facts is when Port wins the midfield count, they are 12-2 win-loss. When they lose the count, they are 4-5 win-loss.
Lewis is confident Port can win this game and then it’s onto the preliminary final.
“It’s a massive game,” he said, “and I think it’s Ken Hinkley best chance of winning the premiership, no doubt.”
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