Jon Ralph looks at today’s big trade issues, including St Kilda’s lack of action, Adelaide’s worries and Tom Lynch’s future
THERE’S no doubt Tom Lynch wants to come home next season, but the Gold Coast are desperate to keep him. A huge sporting event has made that quest even harder.
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TWO days in and there are still no AFL trades, but that doesn’t mean clubs haven’t been working feverishly to get deals done.
Will we see our first deal today?
JON RALPH has all the buzz on the first two days of the trade period and what might happen in day three.
LIVE TRADE BLOG: RUMOURS AND DEALS AS THEY HAPPEN
BUCKY: WHAT REALLY HAPPENS DURING TRADE PERIOD?
PIE-EYED: THREE BIG ISSUES KILLING COLLINGWOOD
ROCK ON: BRISBANE DECLINES TO MATCH ROCKLIFF POWER DEAL
QUIET: WHY ARE PIES, TIGERS OUT OF TRADE HEADLINES?
FIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM DAY TWO OF THE TRADE PERIOD
WHY TOM LYNCH IS PROBABLY LEAVING GOLD COAST
Tom Lynch has told friends he is probably out of Gold Coast next year given he is desperate for success and wouldn’t mind coming home.
The problem for new coach Stuart Dew is that he probably only has 11 weeks to convince him to stay, on the time line already but on the record by manager Paul Connors.
And because of the Commonwealth Games needing Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast might have only played three or four home games by that stage.
And those home games might be at the Gabba, Townsville, Cairns and China.
They could easily be 3-8 by the turn.
Even if they come home with a rush of home games, Lynch will probably have made up his mind if they start like that.
It’s hard to conceive a situation where they are 6-5 by that stage given Gary Ablett will be gone.
Also potentially on the march are Adam Saad, Rory Thompson, Brandon Matera, maybe Trent McKenzie and Matt Shaw.
How can Dew mount a case that Lynch should stay given he wants to see success at Gold Coast next year?
IS JACK WATTS REALLY THAT BAD?
JACK Watts is gone from Melbourne, pushed out in an amazing turn of events.
He probably doesn’t care to look back any more given he has moved on to touring clubs like Geelong and Port Adelaide.
But he had come off 38 goals in 2016 and had kicked 20 goals in 12 games to Round 13 when he tweaked his hamstring against the Dogs.
Instead of easing off for a week or two he pushed hard at training and seemed to worsen the injury, only getting back into the seniors in Round 18.
He only kicked two goals in the seniors from that point on then was told in no uncertain terms to consider his options.
So a player who kicked 58 goals in the past 34 games will be gone within days.
It’s a huge call from Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin.
Going on the reaction from fans at the Melbourne best-and-fairest, Watts is as popular as ever.
Goodwin would want his forward line to function brilliantly next year without Watts because if not the honeymoon period might quickly come to an end.
Especially if the Demons don’t get much at the trade table for a player they only rated as their 21st best player this year.
ST KILDA’S LACK OF TRADE ACTION
The problem unveiling grand strategic plans is the media tends to hold you to them.
St Kilda’s “The Road to 2018” forecast unveiled in 2014 stated the club would finish top four in 2018 and win its second flag in 2020.
The club made it clear to help this stated ambition it would be luring “big fish” free agents by 2016 and onwards.
The issue is that no one seems to want to go the Saints.
St Kilda has a serious lack of match winners.
Why doesn’t anyone want to go to a club like St Kilda with all the money and draft picks in the world?
It has been planning for this trade period for years.
It has been stockpiling salary cap room and front-ending deals, it pulled off a brilliant trade deal last off-season that handed it another first-round pick.
It couldn’t have a better launching pad than millions of bucks and picks seven and eight.
It has put on the record it is desperate for an quick midfielder who can also win the ball in the contest.
But its only real aim seems to be bringing in key defender Adam Tomlinson, who is still a live chance despite GWS knocking that deal on the head at this stage.
If you were a fan you would be wondered where the action is.
It is OK to swing for the fences and come up short.
But St Kilda pulled out of contention for Nathan Fyfe relatively early, didn’t really come hard at Dustin Martin.
It wasn’t in the race for free agent Tom Rockliff, who even as a 60-40 forward-midfield option would have been worth the cash.
It isn’t touring Steven Motlop, who gives St Kilda the pace component it is desperate for even if he is way too inconsistent.
It asked about Andrew Gaff but hasn’t launched a multimillion-dollar can’t-refuse offer at the West Coast wingman.
Right now it seems to be going to the draft with picks seven and eight and saving its cash for next year.
St Kilda already needs to replace stars in Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna and has injury issues that aren’t certain to abate with Patty McCartin and Nathan Freeman.
Surely an adventurous, innovative, aggressive club which has done so well with its recycled players so far has a rabbit to pull out of the hat.
It has eight days to get cracking.
ADELAIDE’S PETULANT CAPTAIN
THERE is absolutely nothing wrong with whacking a player on the way out if you want to send a message about culture.
You just have to be in a position of strength to do it.
Adelaide captain Taylor Walker has come across as a sook and a whinger for saying Jake Lever is leaving for the money this week.
In principle it’s what a captain should do — stand their ground, circle the wagons, protect the rest of the list.
But if you talk the talk you have to have walked the walk.
Walker just looked cheap and mean spirited given Lever was uninvited to the best-and-fairest and Adelaide have often recruited players from rival clubs.
Michael Voss might have made that kind of statement but he would have backed it up in the previous week’s Grand Final.
With physical aggression even if the ball wasn’t bouncing his way.
Glenn McGrath predicted Ashes whitewashes but then he went out and knocked over the opposition captain.
In our Herald Sun rankings of the AFL Grand Final, Walker was ranked the fourth-worst player.
Josh Jenkins’ taunting of Patrick Dangerfield about Grand Final success could so easily have been a bit of harmless fun.
We ranked him as the worst player in the competition.
On recent form, Walker and Jenkins are all talk and no action.
DID BRISBANE REALLY RORT THE FREE AGENCY COMPENSATION RULES?
The narrative goes that Brisbane cooked up a nice little plan by only recruiting Luke Hodge when it knew he was officially retired.
It did so because it knew Tom Rockliff was likely leaving as a free agent and would get pick 19 as compensation.
If Hodge was a free agent signing, he would neutralise the Rockliff pick and leave them with nothing.
To get him as a retiree all they have to do is trade a late pick to Brisbane to get him across the line.
It’s a great storyline.
But according to Brisbane it ignores the fact that at 33 and on a fairly paltry salary, Hodge wouldn’t have been worth free agency compensation for Hawthorn anyway.
When Jarrad Waite left Carlton for North Melbourne he was old enough that the Blues got nothing for him.
Free agency compensation is all about net gain.
So if Hodge was worth nothing as a free agent, he wouldn’t affect the Rockliff selection.
Or maybe he would push it back a few spots.
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