Jay Clark: Footy’s pivot to smaller, turnover-based game leaves Blues with headaches
There’s not much to question when it comes to Carlton’s spine, writes Jay Clark. But what about the rest? It seems the Blues have fallen into a trap that no longer works in modern footy.
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They are Carlton’s missing midfielders.
When the club gutted the list and started again on the back of Michael Malthouse’s axing in 2015, the Blues invested heavily in strength down the spine.
And collectively, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Tom De Koning and Jacob Weitering is the best combination of talls in the caper.
But the game has gone smaller, and to win matches clubs have to be able to be able to score on turnover.
Relying too heavily on the contested possession game is a trap in 2025.
So, as the pressure ramps up on a 10-year rebuild which has so far delivered only two finals wins in 2023, Carlton coach Michael Voss has a considerable headache.
Five rounds into the new season, Carlton is ranked last in the competition for converting its inside 50m entries into scores.
When it comes to moving the Sherrin this year, they’re not the Blues, they are the ‘Bulldozers’.
And dumping the footy on Curnow’s head isn’t the answer after three surgeries (two knee and one ankle) over summer.
So in a week where former Collingwood president Eddie McGuire said Voss would be gone if the Blues lose to West Coast on Saturday, Voss and his coaches have tried desperately to sharpen the team’s sword in recent days.
Carlton has been one of the most powerful contest and clearance teams in the competition on the back of Patrick Cripps’ extraordinary efforts inside the engine room.
But the game has pivoted in a big way.
Footy is being won on the outside in 2025 and the scoring worm is trending up.
On Thursday night, Geelong and Adelaide combined for a whopping 33 goals.
It’s the polish and class on the rebound that counts more than clearance dominance.
And the Blues, just like the Demons, are playing a considerable game of catch-up on the season after losing the first four games of the season despite leading at half-time in each of them.
But it cannot be a fitness problem.
There are about 19 Carlton players who run 2km in less than 6 minutes and 30 seconds, and the GPS numbers across the summer – after considerable changes in the high performance program late last year – went to a new level, the club says.
So it’s not a fitness issue, it’s a ball use issue. The ‘Bulldozers’ haven’t hurt teams with the ball in hand so far this year.
In fact, Carlton might not have a single elite ball-user at a time when clubs like Hawthorn, GWS Giants and Geelong show how clearly precision counts.
Efficiency is king, with teams winning more regularly with less forward 50m entries.
And for all the talk about Carlton’s big man riches, the Blues have swung and missed eight times post Malthouse in the search for A-Grade prime movers and influential small forwards.
And it leaves Voss short on outside class and damaging smalls.
Since 2015, Carlton has used seven top-30 picks on David Cuningham (pick 23), Sam Petrevski-Seton (6), Zac Fisher (27), Paddy Dow (3), Lochie O’Brien (10), Liam Stocker (19), Sam Philp (20) and the top pre-season selection on Jack Martin (1).
But all of them are gone. Delisted or traded. It’s serious draft capital out the door.
They are Carlton’s ‘missing mids’, the 150-200-gamers who would have otherwise been shouldering the ball movement load on Sam Walsh, Cripps and Adam Cerra.
But the question coming into the cutthroat clash against one of the worst teams in the competition in West Coast on Saturday is which Carlton players will start hitting the targets inside 50m?
The spotlight is on Adam Saad, Zac Williams, who has been named on a half back flank after making a switch into more of an upfield role last week, Sam Docherty, Ollie Hollands, Sam Walsh, Blake Acres and debutant Matt Carroll.
If Carlton lose to the Eagles, irreparable damage could be done.
In any case, the Blues will be under serious heat to explain one of the biggest freefalls in the game after making the preliminary final only two years ago.
But McKay has been missing for mental health issues, Curnow has been hobbled over summer, Nic Newman, 32, is out for the year with a knee injury and Carlton hearts were broken when Jagga Smith went down with his season-ending ACL injury in the pre-season.
Smith has the pop, sizzle and the swerve, they lack.
Even though Smith was yet to play a game, the pick three could have been the difference-maker.
And while Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston wanted to play for Voss and would have been perfect given the need for his kicking ability, the Blues opted to keep the picks to snare Smith instead.
The 19-year-old is a huge loss.
Walsh hasn’t been the same player since his back injury flared, and so far this season his average 26 possessions a game have yielded only 3.5 score involvements.
Against Collingwood Walsh was ranked 21st on the ground for ball use. Against the Bulldogs he was 18th, Tigers 28th, and against the Hawks he was 44th, according to Champion Data.
Carlton took Walsh with the number one pick in 2018, ahead of Jack Lukosius (Port Adelaide) and Izak Rankine (Adelaide).
Clearly, the Blues need more bang for buck from their prime movers, and on Saturday Carroll will step up for his debut.
The No. 15 pick in the 2023 rookie draft will be the one running to receive the handballs and link up on his nice left foot.
McKay is back, so the load on Curnow will be more shared, and Williams will be crucial in helping hit targets inside the arc.
Carlton paid Williams big dollars to provide the run and ball use they desperately need in the forward half.
He is probably the best kick in the team along with Saad.
This is a game the Blues have to win, and win well to jump-start their season against lowly opposition.
Otherwise, as Eddie, said, things will get ugly.
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