How success-starved Carlton can reach finals for the first time since 2013

Just when it looked ‘operation unlikely’, the Blues have rediscovered an ever so slight pulse for finals action. This is how Carlton can do it.

Jack Silvagni celebrates as the final siren sounds. Picture: Getty Images

It’s back on, Blues fans.

Cancel those September plans you made a week ago — at least for now.

Results in Round 20 have thrown the door open to an unlikely Carlton finals appearance for the first time in eight years.

That would force a rewrite of the Blues’ internal review and throw a spanner in any plans to replace David Teague with Alastair Clarkson next season.

So what do Teague and his players need to do to steal a top-eight spot?

Firstly, they need to win their three remaining games, and one won’t be easy.

And they need other clubs around them to stumble, but based on the fixture that isn’t going to require any absurd upsets.

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Marc Murphy and Jack Martin celebrate after knocking off St Kilda on Friday night.

If the favourites win on Super Sunday of Round 20 it really comes down to the Blues beating the teams they need to beat, a bunch of results going the right way next week and a big boilover in Round 22.

Carlton aso needs to overhaul West Coast on percentage – it is currently 1.8 per cent down, but three more wins and a couple of Eagles losses (see below) should bridge the gap, barring any freakish blowouts.

THE BREAKDOWN

Here’s how the next three-and-a-half rounds need to play out:

ROUND 20

Sydney d Essendon

Port Adelaide d GWS Giants

Fremantle defeating Richmond wouldn’t hurt, but it’s not compulsory.

ROUND 21

Carlton d Gold Coast

Western Bulldogs d Essendon

Geelong d GWS Giants

Melbourne d West Coast

Brisbane d Fremantle

ROUND 22

Carlton d Port Adelaide

The Eagles can still win the WA derby but a Dockers victory would do Carlton a huge favour.

ROUND 23

Carlton d GWS Giants

Brisbane d West Coast

Comeback kid Charlie Curnow is congratulated by Harry McKay as the Blues keep their dream alive.

FINAL LADDER

Under the above results — assuming the favourite wins every other match — the ladder after Round 23 could look like this:

1. Western Bulldogs 72

2. Melbourne 68

3. Geelong 68

4. Brisbane 64

5. Sydney 64

6. Port Adelaide 60

7. Richmond 48

8. Carlton 44

—

9. West Coast 44

10. Essendon 40

11. St Kilda 36

12. GWS Giants 34

13. Fremantle 32

FIRST WEEK OF FINALS

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions

Melbourne v Geelong

Port Adelaide v Richmond

Sydney v Carlton

Note: If Carlton loses to Port Adelaide it can still make it, but things get very complicated.

Richmond or West Coast would have to lose games they are expected to win and/or the Blues need to get ahead of Essendon on percentage – or barrack for Collingwood to knock off the Bombers in Round 23.