How Low Can They Crow: Building blocks of rebuild, the big Dan Curtin call, who’s left on free agency market
The Crows’ call to get Dan Curtin was a massive one for two reasons. Jay Clark breaks them down, plus the free agency targets left to chase and the building blocks Adelaide can rely on.
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The sharpest focus was on two players in last year’s draft. There was the megastar-in-the-making Harley Reid, who had long been touted as the clear No.1, and then there was Daniel Curtin, the big slider from Western Australia.
Once considered a top-three prospect, recruiters spent many hours trying to work out whether the 197cm Curtin would become an agile key defender with rare skills, a big-bodied midfield playmaker, or something in between on a half back flank.
And it was Adelaide which might have made the biggest call of the draft (outside of Reid) when it knocked back a live trade offer from West Coast to snaffle Curtin at pick eight last year.
The Eagles dangled its future first-round pick (which is currently slated at three) for Adelaide’s eight last year, but the Crows said no. They wanted Curtin, and six months on he remains one of the most crucial jewels in Adelaide’s rebuild.
The Crows’ call was a massive one for two reasons. Firstly, the club desperately needed more class and rebounding polish in the back half, so he was the one who ticked an important box.
Someone who could use the ball beautifully out of the back half and help set up its attack on the rebound when he wasn’t trying to stop or intercept in the air.
One recruiter said Curtin has a kick like a young Marcus Bontempelli, which is high praise.
But the elephant in the room at Adelaide has been the hit-and-miss first-round draft record in 2018-2019, as tough as the caper can be for even the most successful scouts. And since 2020 the returns have been quite solid.
But the Crows know they need to add age and games in the exchange period to strengthen one of the youngest lists in the competition.
Over the past year or so, the club hasn’t been backwards about tabling some big-money offers to superstars such as Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver, Sydney Swans’ Errol Gulden and West Coast’s Elliot Yeo, among others.
These top-line midfielders are among the best players in the league, and have certainly been worth a crack.
But who’s left is the big question facing Adelaide’s list management team as they stare into an increasingly empty-looking free agency barrel.
GWS Giants’ utility Harry Perryman has agility, power, sizzle and versatility. He can move the ball with panache and as a free agent would come for nothing.
Gold Coast utility Jack Lukosius might be open to a return home to South Australia, but clubs are wary of paying too much for the half forward who hasn’t set the world on fire at the Suns.
Caleb Daniel has attracted interest as he weighs up his future at the Western Bulldogs.
GWS’s Nick Haynes doesn’t fit the right age profile, and Melbourne’s Harrison Petty could be on the hook again as a replacement for Taylor Walker if the leading goal kicker made the shock call to leave this year.
The Crows have pick four in the draft as things stand, and plan to use it at the draft if they can’t tempt a genuine top-liner such as Oliver to join them.
But even that would be a risk considering Oliver’s off-field issues over the past six months, even though he has appeared to turn a corner since some heart-to-heart discussions at Melbourne.
The Crows would have loved Max Holmes from Geelong, but at pick 21 last year Adelaide selected Charlie Edwards, a Sandringham product with genuine zip and nice size as a dashing midfielder. They aren’t dissimilar players.
But when coach Matthew Nicks said a couple of weeks ago Adelaide has the list, it was a glass-half-full attitude on a squad that clearly still has holes and was seen as only a borderline top-eight team when the pre-season predictions were all rolled out.
GAME STYLE
So should we be that surprised they have bombed out early in 2024?
In terms of game style, the quick and exciting brand which took them to the verge of finals last year has turned into a bowl of claggy cold porridge over the past month.
The 2.6 first half against Hawthorn was horrific and the follow-up effort at home against Richmond was not much better, as the ball movement slowed to a crawl.
Nicks gave a decent spray at quarter-time of the loss to Hawthorn but there was no response in the second term.
Overall, they have registered at least 100 marks for less than 50 forward 50m entries in each of the past three matches. Unless there’s been a deliberate change of game style to kick and control, which would be a surprise, the system has sprung a big leak this year.
But injuries to key players such as Thilthorpe, Luke Pedlar and Taylor Walker, among others, has hurt.
And the form of some senior stars, such as Rory Laird, has waned at times.
PLAYING LIST
Now attention has again turned to the list. What are the key pieces Crows fans can count on? How many building blocks are already in place? The forward line needs Riley Thilthorpe to become a 200-game star, and good judges say he can still blossom if his injuries subside.
Pedlar can play midfield-forward and people should keep their stock in Josh Rachele despite a flat first half of the 2024 season. It’s a blip.
The midfield has some promise with two A-Graders in Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine, and Jake Soligo has a burst of speed and is on his way, but it is down back that the club needs a talent injection.
Yes, Mitch Hinge and Max Michalanney look good, and Nick Murray and Jordon Butts are solid key defenders in the making. But where is the class, the speed and the power on a back and forward flank? The difference-makers? The spark and electricity?
They need some top-end ball-winners and ball-users.
Rankine is up in the middle where he looks like one of the most electric line-breakers in the game, Brodie Smith will be 33 by next season and Wayne Milera has again been savaged by injury, after losing Shane McAdam to Melbourne last year.
The Crows know their weaknesses, clearly, having baited a big hook for Essendon’s Mason Redman, who at one stage said he was out the door at Tullamarine, before re-signing for Brad Scott. The South Australian rebounder would have been perfect.
And it is why the Crows last year went for Curtin, who is someone who can intercept, link up on the rebound and eventually graduate into a midfield role.
The Crows want the ball in his hands. But there were some big decisions made on draft night last year before taking a plunge on a man the two Western Australian clubs are still keen on.
Adelaide gave picks 11, 15 and a future second-rounder to GWS for picks eight and 17.
That meant the Crows jumped up the order from 11 to eight to land Curtin. They wanted him bad, but the drums have already started to beat across the Nullarbor.
It was a brave pick from Adelaide knowing the Eagles, and Dockers, will keep coming for the next two years, and it’s likely he will hold off on a new deal for now. He has made clear to the club he is very happy, as things stand.
But the chase is most certainly on, and the Crows have been vulnerable to player poaching raids for the best part of a decade.
The club’s critics are watching closely for another miss with an early draft pick, showing how tough and fickle the art of picking teenagers actually.
It was especially hard for all list bosses in the Covid-19 years given the lack of exposure and in 2020 (Thilthorpe and Pedlar), 2021 (Rachele, Soligo and Luke Nankervis) and in 2022 (Michalanney) there are some hits if the big forward, in particular, can establish himself at the top level.
The club has a lot of confidence in Curtin and Edwards from last year’s crop, too.
But 2019 was a wipe-out on pick six with Fischer McAsey retired. The club had its sights set on wingman Dylan Stephens, but the Swans jumped up the order to nab him at pick five.
In any case, Stephens, from Norwood, is at North Melbourne now, anyway.
In 2018, the Crows opted for Chayce Jones (pick nine) and Ned McHenry (pick 16) and the year before the club handed over picks 10 (Lochie O’Brien) and 16 (Ed Richards) for Bryce Gibbs, which didn’t work out either in the wake of the 2018 pre-season camp debacle.
Plus, the club lost Jake Lever to Melbourne, and let go of Tyson Stengle (Geelong) amid some clear off-field concerns.
Tom Doedee (Brisbane Lions), Billy Frampton (Collingwood), Alex Keath (Western Bulldogs) and Mitch McGovern (Carlton) have also departed over the past decade.
Clearly, the Crows don’t like to pay overs for defenders, and you could argue the toss anyone other than Lever has really hurt them, considering McGovern’s injury history, after rocking up at Carlton out-of-shape in the first place.
The Crows seemed happy to let go of McGovern, the club has created cap space in the process.
And 195cm Josh Worrell, who has a nice left foot kick, looks a ready-made Doedee replacement.
Goalkicker Charlie Cameron became a genuine superstar at Brisbane despite leaving for a variety of reasons, and the club didn’t want to lose McAdam last year.
But it has to be acknowledged the Crows are on the wrong end of the stick when it comes to the go-home flow.
The bulk of the country’s top footy prospects come out of Victoria, and have 10 clubs to weigh up back home if they attract interest, and good players always do.
Those competitive balance forces are hard to combat, and the Crows hit the nail on the head with Dawson and Rankine, similar to Port Adelaide on Jason Horne-Francis. But after a solid rise in recent years to the brink of finals, Adelaide has hit the skids so far in 2024.
Suddenly, the pressure has cranked up significantly, and this next series of decisions along with the big Curtin call last year could determine whether the club zigs or zags on the field.
Powerbrokers will say that a few clubs have found it tough going this year such as Richmond, Melbourne and Geelong.
So the Crows aren’t on their own in the spiral this year.
How the club reacts at board level, and whether they hold their nerve or get jumpy, will be interesting to watch as the season comes to an end and the trade period approaches.
Expect Adelaide to be an aggressive player.
Originally published as How Low Can They Crow: Building blocks of rebuild, the big Dan Curtin call, who’s left on free agency market
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