GWS Giants can win 2016 flag if they believe in themselves, writes David King
WITH 23 top-20 draft picks the Giants list wants for nothing. Like the Baby Bombers of 1993, belief could win them the 2016 flag, writes David King.
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AS potentially the most even AFL season for 20 years begins and the predictions about who will be premier come flooding in, it’s logical to assume that last year’s ladder is the main, if not only, reference point.
Hawthorn is always difficult to tip against, West Coast’s list is the envy of the competition and cases are being made for ageing Fremantle and North Melbourne, a Patrick Dangerfield-inspired Geelong and the possibility that Sydney, with the unique Lance Franklin, could surprise.
But haven’t we seen this type of season before?
The AFL is a cynical environment, full of nay-sayers and doubters, but just ask this question: Why can’t Greater Western Sydney win the premiership in 2016?
The Giants could just be the “Baby Bombers” of 1993. They weren’t on anyone’s radar. They were dismissed as too young, too inexperienced and, while their quality was acknowledged, it was generally undersold.
The 1993 ladder was astonishing — only one and a half wins separated the top team Essendon from seventh-placed Geelong, which missed the finals.
Essendon posted only a win and a draw from its first five games before winning 12 of its next 14 to highlight that, when a young team learns to win, it can become habitual.
GWS has significant assets.
It can move the football. It ranked No.5 behind the premier, the runner-up, a preliminary finalist (North Melbourne) and the high octane Western Bulldogs for ball movement from any point on the field in 2015.
This is clearly the hardest facet of our great game to master but, in their infancy, the Giants have done it.
If you leave space in front of the Giants when they have possession, they’ll take it.
The “Space Invaders” mindset maximises their leg speed advantage and highlights their healthy arrogance.
Their run-and-carry game is clearly better than the rest of the competition.
The Giants’ rapid fire, pinball handball method from clearances also changes the game from congestion back to their run-and-carry advantage.
If the Giants want the 2016 premiership badly enough, I believe it could be theirs.
They have the highest percentage of handball with the first disposal once the clearance is won, which maintains possession and commits the opposition to defend. Fail to stop them and the Giants will score at will.
Their pressure has been a work in progress, but if the improvements made through the NAB Challenge series can be maintained, then the Giants are the full package.
In 1993, Essendon coach Kevin Sheedy gambled on Tim Watson.
He had retired at the end of 1991, but Sheedy needed his leadership and football nous. Can former Cat Steve Johnson become to the Giants what Watson was to the Bombers?
Probably not, but both appeared finished at the top level before another opportunity availed. Watson played 16 games and kicked 26 goals in 1993.
I expect Stevie J to surpass that statistical output, but can he emulate Watson’s leadership impact?
Replace the 28-year-olds on Essendon’s 1993 list with those in the Giants’ 2016 squad.
Mark Thompson for Heath Shaw, Mark Harvey for Phil Davis and Ryan Griffen would accept comparison to that year’s Bombers best-and-fairest Gary O’Donnell.
Paul Salmon, while a better goal scoring option than Shane Mumford, had comparable influence as a ruckman.
At that stage we hadn’t seen the Hall of Fame talent levels of Gavin Wanganeen, Michael Long, James Hird and Dustin Fletcher, and I won’t subject the Giants’ youngsters to any comparisons with those champions.
Sheedy may have had greater young talent at his disposal than Leon Cameron has today, but only time will tell.
Dylan Shiel, Jack Steele, Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly, Jacob Hopper, Toby Greene and Devon Smith all fall into the 19-23 age bracket.
Sixteen top-10 draft picks, a staggering 23 top-20 picks plus a sprinkling of hand-picked free agents in their physical prime shows that Cameron’s list wants for nothing.
Former North Melbourne and Carlton coach Denis Pagan always maintained that desire was the greatest motivating force and if you wanted something badly enough, you could achieve it.
If the Giants want the 2016 premiership badly enough, I believe it could be theirs.
GWS has all the tools. It can move the football, it can score heavily and it can defend. It must improve its clearance game to contend, but that’s achievable considering its midfield talent.
The Giants won’t be favourites, they won’t be taken seriously, but neither were the “Baby Bombers” of 1993.
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