Geelong’s pursuit of Matt Rowell examined: How it could happen and is it possible?
Geelong is yet again in pursuit of a star rival midfielder, this time it being Matt Rowell. But is it actually possible? Callum Dick examines the possibility of Rowell in the blue and white hoops.
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Geelong has thrown its hat in the ring for Gold Coast superstar Matt Rowell but a move home to Victoria is far from a fait accompli for the former No. 1 overall pick.
In November this masthead reported Rowell had put contract talks with the Suns on-hold amid intense Victorian interest while assessing the club’s improvement following yet another failed finals push in 2024.
With every week the 23-year-old remains unsigned through 2025 the noise will grow but the ball is in Gold Coast’s court to convince its midfield bull to remain loyal to the cause and the club is confident he will stay.
The jettisoning of Jack Lukosius last year cleared a hole in the Suns’ cap space in preparation of paying Rowell but – particularly in a head-to-head battle with Geelong – money looms as less of an issue than on-field success.
In his five seasons at the Suns Rowell has never played in a winning team and thus never featured in the finals.
Conversely the Cats are perpetual premiership contenders and last season went within seconds of knocking off eventual premiers Brisbane in an all-time classic preliminary final.
It is unlikely the Cats’ pitch to Rowell includes making him the richest player in football – rather a carved out role as the next Joel Selwood and the carrot of continued on-field success playing for the most consistent club in the land.
It is a pitch the Suns cannot match given their 0-14 finals strike rate and therein lies the key tipping point: Rowell will want to see signs of significant growth and the promise of September football if he is to recommit.
THE FIT AT GEELONG
Geelong is the best in the business at replenishing its playing list on the fly and has defied the precipitous drop to the bottom of the ladder that often proceeds a premiership.
Few players in the AFL share Rowell’s skill set and even fewer find themselves off-contract. Given he is also Victorian, the Cats’ interest makes perfect sense.
Having just added wantaway Bulldog Bailey Smith after a protracted trade saga the Cats can now circle Rowell as their top trade target to assume the mantle left by Selwood.
With Patrick Dangerfield winding down an all-time great AFL career, Rowell would become the Cats’ go-to contested ball winner, complementing the outside run of Smith and emerging star Max Holmes while freeing Dangerfield up to spend more time forward.
Rowell knows Geelong’s midfield coach Steven King well, having worked under him at the Suns before King moved to the Cats at the end of 2023.
Other Victorian clubs would likely put more money in front of Rowell than Geelong, however the Cats have mastered the art of pitching success and lifestyle to convince stars to play in the hoops.
THE FIT AT GOLD COAST
Rowell has long maintained he loves playing on the Gold Coast and has formed strong relationships with the playing group and coaching staff.
His childhood best friend Noah Anderson is a signed-and-sealed Sun to the end of 2027 and the two on-ballers are perfect complementary pieces in the same midfield.
Damien Hardwick is Rowell’s biggest supporter and his presence was one of the major reasons the triple-premiership coach chose to take the job on the Gold Coast.
Rowell has already established himself as a star of the Suns’ midfield, averaging 0.59 Brownlow votes per game over his career and is coming off a career-best 2024 season.
The Suns have the personnel to become one of the best on-ball brigades in the AFL and Rowell is a centrepiece to that.
Sean Grigg was the maestro behind Geelong’s midfield when it won the flag in 2022 and he now oversees Rowell and co. on the Gold Coast having swapped places with King at the end of 2023.
Gold Coast has a host of stars on big money contracts and in September handed Mac Andrew the biggest deal in AFL history, but by shipping Lukosius to Port Adelaide the Suns should have the cash to pay Rowell what he is worth.
THE LUKOSIUS PRECEDENT
Lukosius was a prized commodity on the Gold Coast – until he wasn’t.
The 24-year-old was a popular figure within the playing group and preferred to remain on the Gold Coast but with his yearly salary set to push $1m in 2025 the bang was not worth the buck to the Suns.
Rowell would command close to that $1m figure on his next deal but his situation is vastly different to that of Lukosius.
While Lukosius was a piece Hardwick struggled to fit within his puzzle, Rowell remains one of the corner pieces to his system and a major reason why the triple-premiership coach took the Gold Coast job in the first place.
WHAT WOULD A TRADE LOOK LIKE?
Because Rowell does not yet qualify for free agency, the Cats would have to stump up at the trade table to secure his services and the cost of business would be steep.
Two first round picks would be the likely starting point in any trade negotiations and even then, the Suns might not have a need for them depending on how the season plays out.
Geelong currently owns just one first rounder in the 2025 draft – its own – while the Suns boast three selections, having added Collingwood and Port Adelaide’s future first-rounders in the John Noble and Lukosius trades respectively.
Gold Coast has two Suns Academy stars – Zeke Uwland and Beau Addinsall – rated as potential top-10 picks and with the updated Draft Value index (DVI) and academy bidding rules for 2025, compiling enough points for both will be more difficult than in previous years.
A way-too-early estimation of Uwland at pick 2 and Addinsall at pick 10 would leave the Suns needing roughly 3300 points to match bids on both after the 10 per cent discount.
Even if Collingwood and Port Adelaide played off in the 2025 grand final, granting Gold Coast picks 17 and 18, the Suns would still be able to match bids on both players by finishing eighth or lower and packaging their own first and second round selections into the mix.
That equation means the Suns would likely hold the whip hand in any trade talks over Rowell, though as we know by the Jack Bowes salary cap dump the Cats are master negotiators.
THE STATE OF PLAY
Geelong will not be the last Victorian club to make a play for Rowell and the longer he remains unsigned by the Suns the more speculation will grow.
Gold Coast is incredibly confident he will stay and it should be, but there is now even more pressure on the Suns to make the September leap in 2025 because anything less than positive momentum could mean Rowell looks elsewhere for success.
And clearly, if the star midfielder was already sold on staying at the Suns he would have signed on the dotted line by now.
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