Fremantle blueprint: Premiership window shutting on Ross Lyon’s Dockers
TIME is the enemy for Ross Lyon. With 12 players aged 29 or older, 2015 must be Fremantle’s year. If he falls short again it might be more than bad luck, writes David King.
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IT WAS another frustrating finish for Ross Lyon in 2015 after the Dockers again qualified top-four, winning 16 home-and-away games, but failed to win a final.
Crunching the numbers of Lyon’s coaching career, it becomes apparent that his systems and style provide opportunity but poor conversion at goal in the very biggest of games has cruelled him. The week two final against Port Adelaide should’ve been over at halftime but a scoreline of 6.11 left the door ajar. Is it all just bad luck?
PROS
Fremantle has the greatest home-ground advantage in the AFL, winning 11 of 12 home-and-away games at Patersons Stadium. A five-win, five-loss record on the road was also commendable and proves the Dockers have a system that travels: “Anytime, anywhere”.
Lyon addressed past scoring issues publicly, stating his desire to improve offensively by two goals a game, but scoring dropped across the competition by an average of one goal. Therefore by maintaining the exact same 91-point average, Fremantle’s offensive ranking rose from 12th in 2013 to 8th this year.
The ruck dominance of Aaron Sandilands was finally converted into clearances. Fremantle midfielders become the toughest contested possession team in the competition, averaging nine more contested possessions and three more clearances than their opponents, making them the best ball-winning team in the AFL.
Given the age demographic of their elite mid-forwards, Fremantle can expect high levels of production from Nathan Fyfe, Michael Walters, Stephen Hill and Lachie Neale, who are all 25 or younger.
Only Hawthorn converts forward-50 entries into goals better than Fremantle. Pressure players like Hayden Ballantyne, Michael Walters and Chris Mayne commit to forcing opposition turnovers and Fremantle’s greatest structural asset is scoring from forward-half intercepts.
Curiously, Fremantle overlooked the possible acquisition of Jarrad Waite and Mitch Clark, despite having been tempted in the past. Matthew Pavlich has shown tremendous durability and resilience, but a second target hasn’t surfaced. I wonder if the Dockers have money in the bank for a recruiting raid for LAP — life after Pav.
CONS
Fremantle cannot hurt teams on counterpunch from the backline. Only Melbourne has a poorer conversion ratio on defensive 50 to inside-50 counter attack. The Dockers cannot or will not move the ball with speed or dare. This came home to roost at the pointy end of the season and is their greatest scope for improvement.
They require one or two half-back flankers with damaging, line-breaking capabilities. Stephen Hill may be that option, but innovation is required and this is fundamentally opposed to Lyon’s philosophies on the game.
Time is Fremantle’s enemy. The list has been Lyon’s, and rightly so. The Dockers are in the window for premiership opportunity, but with 12 players next season aged 29 years or older, their time is now. Season 2015 must be their year.
Great system? Unlucky again? How many more genuine premiership opportunities for this group?
Rightly or wrongly, the pressure will come on Ross Lyon in 2015. It might be grumpy Ross again this year.
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