Fox Footy expert David King says Sydney transforming from sleepers to genuine premiership contenders
THE Sydney Swans are transforming from sleepers to genuine premiership contenders.
David King
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THE Sydney Swans are transforming from sleepers to genuine premiership contenders.
While it’s easy to get consumed with the Bondi billionaires in the forward line, Lance Franklin, Adam Goodes, Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid are far from the reason behind Sydney’s change in fortunes.
The billionaires are adding the sauce — the finishing touches to the grunt work done by a stung and reinvigorated midfield.
The actual source — the origin of where they’re winning possession and winning games — is at ground level. Ground balls are the core of the contested football battle and account for seven per cent of contested possessions per game.
Sydney is winning 23 more ground balls than their direct opponents on average, therefore owning the very foundation of contested football.
The Gold Coast Suns and Collingwood are the next two ranked teams, but are significantly less ruthless than the Swans, averaging 18 and 13 more ground balls than their direct opponents respectively.
Dan Hannebery and Josh Kennedy not only lead the way for Sydney, but are ranked No. 3 and No. 4 for ground ball gets behind only Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield.
Two players in the top 4 is extraordinary and a tagging dilemma for most opponents.
If you want to defeat the Swans you need to beat them at the source of possession, not when they apply the sauce inside the forward 50m. At the end 2013, and certainly the first month this season, the Swans had an identity crisis. They appeared to have stepped away from the grind of their workrate based game, but it is back now.
Old-fashioned, honest, brutal and tough football is their brand. Their ethos about thriving on football in the trenches with messy, scrappy, stoppage games which we’ve all become conditioned to watching. It’s often that Sydney’s opposition shy away from engaging in these confrontations that allows them an advantage.
Greater Western Sydney aren’t the only team missing their Mummy, as Sydney is too.
The Swans since the departure of Shane Mumford are ranked 16th for hit-outs to advantage and 18th over the past month averaging more than seven less than their opponents. The flow-on means their opposition are obtaining first possessions post hit-out, averaging eight more than Sydney who rank 17th in this department.
Considering this, you would assume Sydney’s clearance would be poor. Wrong. Sydney’s willingness to engage in the dogfight by tackling and harassing has them reversing the trend, averaging two more clearances than their opposition, ranked 6th in the league.
That is frightening when you consider Mike Pyke isn’t available and Kurt Tippett isn’t quite fit enough for long stints in the ruck yet.
Sydney’s contest pressure is clearly the AFL’s best over the past month, ensuring it forces opposition sides into turnovers. The Swans during this period are clearly the competitions best at winning back possession, more specifically in their attacking half of the ground.
In the last four weeks the trio of Hannebery, Kieran Jack and Jarrad McVeigh sit in the top four best players at winning back possession for the team in the forward half. In fact, Sydney have seven in the AFL’s top 13. When the Swans play like this without the ball they are brilliant.
The Swans are the best deniers we’ve seen — only Lance Armstrong could compare. They are ranked No. 2 in the AFL for defence, conceding only 74 points on average. But in the past three weeks that figure has dropped to a miserly 57 points.
They give nothing. I’d be surprised if John Longmire gave out Christmas presents.
The Swans average 55 points per game from forward half stoppages and turnovers, again No. 1 in the competition. It’s an old school lock-in. McVeigh has gone from an All Australian half-back last year to an elite high roaming half-forward with tremendous success. Jack has also spent significant time in the forward line.
Has John Longmire had a philosophical shift? Plonking more talent forward of centre, maintaining pressure standards and reinventing the forward press, only this time with more talent?
The Bondi Billionaires will need game time to build a chemistry that will allow them to be their best. Does Franklin still draw too many targeted entries? Against Hawthorn Buddy drew 15 of the teams entries and while he provided a tremendous target the returns were impacted by his chronic inaccuracy.
Tippett had 10 targeted entries and the team goaled from 30 per cent of those — a much better return than Buddy’s 13 per cent. Goodes had only one and the juggling of these focal points will prove a challenge for the Swans’ coaching panel because they’re expensive magnets to manouver.
Tonight Essendon will be challenged to compete at ground level where they’ve failed in recent weeks, averaging 14 less ground ball contested possessions than their direct opponents, ranked 17th in the AFL.
Are they quick enough? Tough enough? Do they value the uncontested possessions more than contested? Is it physical or mental? Fail the toughness test tonight and the Bombers will be humiliated.
Longmire must chuckle to himself when all the focus is directed at Franklin, Tippett and even Australian of the Year Goodes. He knows where the real strength lies. It may be expensive sauce, but it only applies a premiership finishing taste.
The Bloods ethos is their biggest weapon and now that Hannebery and Co. are back on track, look out Bombers. Tonight, the Dons may have all the wallpapering ripped off the cracks.
GROUND SWAN DAY
Rd 4-8 ground ball gets (ave)
Sydney Swans 23.3
Gold Coast Suns 18.3
Collingwood 12.3
Port Adelaide 10.5
Western Bulldogs 7.3
St Kilda 3.8
West Coast Eagles2.0
Brisbane Lions 1.0
Richmond 0.7
Hawthorn -1.8
Melbourne -3.3
Carlton -3.8
Fremantle -5.0
Adelaide Crows -10.0
Geelong Cats -12.3
North Melbourne -12.3
Essendon -13.8
GWS Giants -17.8
Source: Champion Data
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