Fox Footy analyst David King lists five influencing factors for Hawthorn and Sydney ahead of grand final

HAWTHORN and Sydney know exactly how each other plays, they know each others systems and they possess comprehensive dossiers detailing potential threats.

Fox Footy 2012. David King. Photojohn Tsiavis 1456

THERE will be no surprises today.

Hawthorn and Sydney know exactly how each other plays, they know each others systems and they possess comprehensive dossiers detailing potential threats. Grand Finals are about executing your skills and your method in a pressure-cooker environment.

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Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson and Sydney counterpart John Longmire will have sleepless nights over selection, which opposition players to tag and contingency plans if things go wrong. But some players and some systems have greater importance than others.

Whichever team maintains the bulk of their assets while denying the opposition theirs will be premiers. So let’s look at the five factors of influence.

HAWTHORN

The Hawk Fork

JARRYD Roughead, Luke Breust and Jack Gunston have kicked a staggering 180 goals this season. They have tremendous balance in their games and score in different ways with an almost 50-50 split between goals from marks and general play.

Breust and Gunston do their damage close to goal — 0-30m — generally after challenging the concentration and speed of their opponents. Once they get in behind the defence they score. Nick Smith and Dan Rampe — snooze and you lose.

Roughead had eight shots at goal opposed to Ted Richards last time they met. This battle will dictate the result. The “Hawk Fork” need to provide nine goals, minimum, for success.

AFL Hawthorn players training at Waverley. Captain Luke Hodge and Shaun Burgoyne.

Hodge & Burgoyne

THESE two have altered the course of more big games at Hawthorn than anyone, Lance Franklin included, over the past four to five seasons. Expect more midfield minutes than usual as the clearance game is crucial. Shaun Burgoyne has spent time on Josh Kennedy in recent games, played across half-back and also pushed forward in finals.

Luke Hodge is the traffic cop. He’s always invested in the team plan and ensures that others are correctly positioned before setting the standard through a fierce and uncompromising attack on the ball.

Contested possessions are what these two must bring to the table. They average 15 between them across the home and away season, but it won’t necessarily be about the amount but rather the moments that matter. Expect physicality, particularly from Hodge across the back line.

Brad Hill provides Hawthorn with run and carry. Picture: Colleen Petch.

Stars on 45

BRAD Hill, Grant Birchall and Isaac Smith are the Hawthorn running game. They connect their defensive 50 to the forward 50 with gut running on 45 degree angles across the centre square. Their damage, if unchecked, will separate the game. How do the Hawks avail themselves to one-on-ones in the forward 50? Through this high-speed ball movement.

Hill must be tagged. He never wastes a possession and while his numbers are low, his impact is profound. In the beating of Port Adelaide he was involved in seven of Hawthorn’s 15 goals despite only 22 having possessions.

This angled running will be a challenge for Sydney to curtail. Therefore, Hill is a sneaky Norm Smith chance.

Luke Breust celebrates a goal against Collingwood. Picture: Wayne Ludbey.

Midfield Defensive Cover

THE Sydney Swans midfield pride themselves on two-way run. In the 2012 Grand Final they cracked the Hawks in the last quarter through a superior and longer work rate. Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker will need to be monitored on counter-attack. If they’re clamped the reliance on Franklin may just become too much.

The Swans midfield will look to hit the scoreboard and must be thwarted. When Breust, Gunston and co. spend time at centre bounces it must not come at a price.

Wildcard

AS stated, there will be no surprises. Will Langford had kicked six goals this season, but when he challenged his tag Joel Selwood to defend him in Round 22 he kicked two. Leave Langford free at forward 50 stoppages at your peril. If he pinches one or two goals then it’s party time for the brown and gold. Only three players have had 10 clearances or more in a final this year and Will is one of them.

Buddy celebrates another goal on the way to the 2014 Coleman Medal.

SYDNEY

The Franchise

WHEN you invest $10 million in a player he is the franchise. Franklin’s recent form is simply amazing. Since Round 17 he has been involved in 45 one-on-ones. While winning 24 is impressive, it’s the fact he has won 21 of them by out-marking his opponent. That’s a 47 per cent. The AFL average is 13 per cent. “Buddy” has gone to levels unseen.

Only Buddy will defeat Buddy. Conversion is the only factor that remains a mystery and as much as he could win the game for Sydney, he could lose it. But the one thing I do know is that he will get opportunities.

I’m expecting Franklin to kick five or more — and be wearing two medals at 5:30pm today, with the premiership medal clinking against the Norm Smith Medal.

Two-Way Running Battle

KENNEDY, Parker and Franklin are in the AFL’s top 10 for possessions in the forward half of the field, but they push back defensively just as hard. Kennedy failed this test in Round 18 and accepted some criticism, both internally and externally. This won’t happen when the stakes are this high this afternoon.

Hannebery and Parker commit to their offensive runs and only stop when they run into the cheer squad, Forrest Gump like. They will test the defensive honesty of Hill, Isaac Smith and Sam Mitchell. If Jordan Lewis isn’t right impacted he will be exposed.

Pinball Handball

THE Swans’ brutality at stoppages only plays second fiddle to their rapid fire handball from congestion. Their ability to convert contested possession into an offensive chain on the outside allows them to change gears and play fast football. If the Hawks can’t disrupt their first possession they will not be able to protect their back six. These are the damaging chains that laterally, almost rugby style, generally finish with Nick Malceski, Lewis Jetta or Gary Rohan’s deep forward entries.

Clearances becoming inside 50s is the game within the game. I’m expecting Hawthorn to commit their plus one at the coal face to negate their exits at speed. This player must impact defensively as he leaves Josh Gibson and Brian Lake in isolated one-on-ones. Good luck with that.

Josh Kennedy is key to Sydney winning the stoppages. Photo by Ryan Pierse

The pressure that saves their defensive end

THE Swans rank No. 2 in the competition at defending clearance losses, conceding a score from only one in every five clearances. In fact, Sydney lose more clearances than they win — ranked 14th — but they have outscored the opposition by 215 points from stoppages this year. It’s quality over quantity.

Wildcard

BEN McGlynn may be a poor man’s Cyril Rioli, but he is the No. 3 pressure player in the competition and his hunting ground is forward of centre.

Part of the Swans brand is creating repeat inside 50s which forces the opposition into turnover and it’s largely because of McGlynn. Repeat inside 50s are the main source of scoring for Sydney and given the high skill level of the Hawthorn back six, their ability to connect on the counter-attack will decide the outcome.

If Hawthorn are as poor exiting their defensive 50 as they were last week then this Grand Final will be over early. Port Adelaide lost the preliminary final when they kicked 3.9 in the first quarter, but specifically 1.4 from these repeat inside 50s.

VERDICT

SYDNEY had the luxury of a soft kill last weekend, while Hawthorn chased the road runners until the death. This will be a factor late in the Grand Final.

The Sydney Swans will be this year’s premiers by 35 points.

I can hear the whinging already.