Former GWS coach Leon Cameron previews the Sydney-Collingwood preliminary final

Three teams remain in the race for the premiership. Who will take on Geelong in this year’s Grand Final? See Leon Cameron’s exclusive analysis of the Pies-Swans prelim.

Preliminary finals are the hardest games to win.

Physically they test you like no other game and mentally it can play havoc with your mind.

You know if you get over this enormous challenge you’re into the Grand Final, which is everything you and your team has dreamt of.

SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD

4.45pm at the SCG on Saturday

AGGRESSIVE DEFENCE UNLEASHES DE GOEY

Whenever we played Collingwood, from a personal point of view, Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury were always the two we would worry about.

De Goey was more of a key forward out of the goalsquare then, but now he‘s a midfielder — and the dynamic one, because Collingwood has got such good decision-makers that if De Goey gets involved when the ball is turned over he normally puts them in a position to score.

The Magpies are very, very aggressive with their back six. They play a system where they'll keep Darcy Moore deep and Jeremy Howe as well — but the rest of the guys will play up higher, and they are absolutely instructed to come off their man really, really hard to go and help outnumber at every opportunity.

Darcy Moore is a central figure in the AFL’s most aggressive backline.

And if they win that contest, you watch De Goey.

If he’s in that contest, he’ll be going straight away. Or if he’s off that contest and can see Collingwood has got an outnumber, he’s already on his bike.

They predict offence as good as anyone. So does John Longmire run Callum Mills on De Goey?

Mills is such a good player because he’s the ultimate two-way runner. He’s actually three ways — he’s a contest freak, he plays defence as good as anyone because of his grounding as a halfback flanker, and he plays really good offence as well.

He's the ultimate team player, the captain, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes to De Goey.

BEWARE OF BUDDY

I know Steven May had a good game on Franklin — but Sydney won by four goals.

Knowing Franklin he will not only want to be that focal target on Saturday, but he’s going to go in with a little bit of venom as well.

Can Lance Franklin have an impact for the Swans? Picture: Michael Klein

I don't think we’re going to see the Franklin of old, where he kicks five in a final, but what we’re going to see is some brilliant Franklin and a team-focused Franklin who just makes Will Hayward, Tom Papley, Isaac Heeney and Sam Reid walk taller.

He knows these players are getting off the chain because the focus is on him and that is a great advantage to Sydney.

I don't think the Magpies will have a set match-up for Franklin.

They'll just play their system. So if Franklin ends up high, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nathan Murphy takes him and they just keep Moore at fullback.

It’ll be the same with all their backs, the only rider being whether they look at Papley and say, ‘He’s the energiser, do we need to clamp him?’

But I don’t think they will.

FOUR MAGICAL MAGPIES

Collingwood has got some of the best decision-makers in the game.

They've got Pendlebury and the two Daicos brothers, Josh and Nick, and if you add De Goey they’ve got four.

Jordan De Goey has produced something special in the Pies’ two finals. Picture: Getty Images

So when they scramble and turn the ball over in a really frantic position, either one of these four players will hurt you.

But they do give up a lot. They prey on turnover and are not overly strong in contests, which is where the Swans have raised their game in the past eight weeks.

SYDNEY’S GRUNT IS BACK

If you actually look at the Swans statistically, they are the perfect side at the moment and have all areas covered. Contest, Clearance and they are the No.1 pressure team as well.

Led by Luke Parker, James Rowbottom, Callum Mills, and Chad Warner as their main midfielders this team is at its competitive best and really love the pressure cooker of finals footy.

Oh, and by the way, they are the best kicking team as well.

A SURPRISE MOVE FOR DAICOS?

I think Ryan Clarke will try to tag Nick Daicos again. But Collingwood might throw a curve ball and go, ‘Right, we’re not going to start Daicos at halfback. We’re going to start him on ball’.

Could Craig McRae pull a surprise with Nick Daicos? Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

He's a young kid in his first year who should’ve nearly been All-Australian and the coach has got this luxury of going, ‘Listen mate, we’re going to throw you on ball this week. Or play you on a wing or as a high half-forward’.

If Clarke can't get to Daicos then all of a sudden he might look at playing a negative role on Howe, because Howe can drop off and take intercept marks.

TALL ORDER FOR PADDY

I think Tom McCartin will go to Brody Mihocek, because they've both got big motors, and one of Dane Rampe or Robbie Fox will end up out of the goalsquare on Jamie Elliott, with the other one on Jack Ginnivan.

Mason Cox usually starts on the bench and so Paddy McCartin might be playing on a small or a medium until Cox gets down there, but I think Paddy will go to Cox because he’s the one who can go with him in the air.

The Swans have got “A-grade marks for everything” in recent months, according to Leon Cameron.

Don't underestimate Rampe and Fox. They have been unbelievably good as medium defenders. They play tall when they need to and have been in absolutely red-hot form.

I think Sydney’s back seven has been No. 1 in the competition for the last 10 weeks, and they have no injuries. They haven’t basically changed their side for eight weeks.

These 23 players who run out for Sydney are absolutely rock-hard, have got unbelievable synergy, they are playing super intense footy and they've got every aspect of the game covered.

WHO WINS?

The Swans are like a student going into his exams — they have got A-grade marks out of everything for 9-10 weeks. But then there’s a final one to go, and that’s an unpredictable exam called Collingwood. That is the intriguing part about this game.

The Magpies are unpredictable because they‘ve got outstanding decision-makers, they come off their man aggressively and they pull the trigger into the middle of the ground because they want to test the opposition and they want to score.

I think Sydney, like the other game, will just wear Collingwood down bit by bit by bit and probably get in by about 8-12 points.