Hawthorn is losing the edge it once had on AFL rivals, David King says

HAWTHORN Football Club has done it all. It’s won all the recent titles and remains the toughest fight on the AFL landscape.

AFL Grand Final 2015 Four Premierships for Hawthorn Cyril Rioli Jordan Lewis Sam Mitchell Jarryd Roughead Grant Birchill & Luke Hodge Picture:Wayne Ludbey

HAWTHORN Football Club has done it all. It’s won all the recent titles and remains the toughest fight on the AFL landscape.

The Hawks are akin to Muhammad Ali late in his career, when his punch wasn’t the knockout blow it once had been but was still adequate.

The stage when Ali’s evasive skills weren’t as sharp, which meant absorbing more blows, yet when the fight was there to be won, the champion still found a way.

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Champions understand “ring craft” and use their experience in the two-minute drills at the conclusion of the game, or the rounds.

The Hawks have saved their knockouts for the past two Grand Finals, but this season they are still in front on the judges’ scorecards.

Luke Breust under pressure from Saint Sam Gilbert. Picture: Getty

Alastair Clarkson said last weekend that the Hawks’ previous two opponents, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, were the better teams on the day but lost.

The Hawks are winning without playing their best football.

We are only four weeks into the 2016 home-and-away marathon, but at what point do they lose that invincible aura that almost consumes other teams as they try different methods to crack the Clarkson code?

Hawthorn has had a genuine fear factor for the past four or five years. Geelong had it for a decade and the Brisbane Lions had it prior to that.

The Hawks have been the hunted every week for quite some time now.

We all have far too much respect to write off Hawthorn this early, but a red flag of alarm is being raised.

David King

They are constantly providing answers about their opponents’ development.

The Western Bulldogs wanted to know if they were bona fide and were stamped a contender.

The Saints were seeking improvement markers and, in the coming weeks, I’m sure we’ll hear them say they “pushed the Hawks”, and rightly so.

The motivation for the Hawks to be “up” for every game could be taking its toll.

Clarkson developed a special defensive system that was ahead of our game, a zoning defence that altered the course of our code like the “Fosbury flop” revolutionised the high jump.

While others were toiling away with the “straddle” and “scissor kick” techniques, American Dick Fosbury won a gold medal at the 1968 Olympics with his “backwards over the bar” method and changed the event forever.

Dick Fosbury demonstrates the ‘Fosbury flop’. Picture: Herald Sun

Clarkson has had that sort of effect on the AFL, forcing the competition to score more to compete.

But now the gap between the Hawks and the rest has been narrowed significantly due to the bleeding of intellectual property to rival clubs, both as senior and assistant coaches. All teams have stolen or mimicked components of the Hawthorn plan.

Hawthorn has gone from last season’s second best at scoring from stoppages, averaging +13 points on their opponents, to the third worst, averaging -13 points, behind only Essendon and Collingwood. Is this a sign of what’s to come in 2016?

Add to the balance sheet a significant fall in scoring from forcing opposition turnover from last season’s league best +26 points to a mid-range +16 points, and you compound the Hawks’ cause for concern.

Their ability to move the ball has fallen dramatically across the board, from stoppage wins and turnovers won. Every team is now “Fosbury flopping” and some are doing it better than Hawthorn.

The Champion Data premiership predictor highlights the teams in the “premiership ready” quadrant (top left), that score 100 points or more and concede fewer than 86 points.

While simplistic, it highlights this season’s premiership likelihood, as 15 of the past 16 champions have been rated in the “premiership ready” section.

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson trying to keep the Hawks ahead of the curve. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

First we must recognise how brilliant Hawthorn has been, almost isolated on the “premiership ready” island for years, but the start to season 2016, even this early, indicates the worm has turned or, at minimum, it is getting restless.

We all have far too much respect to write off Hawthorn this early, but a red flag of alarm is being raised.

The impact of injuries, particularly to the Hawks’ most flexible asset, Jarryd Roughead, is hurting more than previous years but what we do know is that Clarkson would be assessing and devising his club’s next shift in strategy.

Clarkson never stands still. He is always evolving and staying ahead of the curve and that may be more critical this year than in the past as the “four-peat” is on the table.

On Friday night Hawthorn faces the Adelaide Crows, who, like all the others, want Hawthorn to vindicate their position on the AFL landscape.

So far this season the Crows have won games in different ways. They were too tough for Sydney, too slick with the ball against Port Adelaide and unforgiving with their forward press against Richmond.

Don Pyke’s team has many different way to score. He will throw many darts at the wall to challenge Hawthorn.

And maybe we will learn more about the Hawks than we do about the Crows.