AFL run home: North Melbourne and Melbourne in battle for eighth spot with two rounds left

IT’S mathematically possible for Melbourne to secure an unlikely finals appearance, but do the AFL’s official stats gurus give the Dees any hope of ousting North Melbourne?

Drew Petrie reacts after hitting the post against Hawthorn. Picture: Michael Klein

THE equation seems simple enough.

Win both their remaining home-and-away games against Carlton and Geelong, and the Demons can snatch eight spot should the Kangaroos stumble against Sydney and GWS.

All the momentum is with Melbourne on the back of three consecutive wins while North Melbourne has lost seven of its past nine games.

But Melbourne coach Paul Roos played down his team’s chances of an unlikely finals appearance after last Saturday night’s resounding 40-point win over Port Adelaide, saying “it’s mathematically possible ... (but) the ladder looks after itself, whatever happens, happens”.

And the AFL’s official stats gurus is also not getting carried away, with the Champion Data rating the Demons only a 6 per cent chance of ousting North Melbourne from eighth spot.

CLUB	FINALS	TOP 4	TOP 2	MINOR PREMIER
Hawthorn	100%	89%	61%	39%
Sydney	100%	92%	58%	30%
Adelaide	100%	86%	43%	19%
Geelong	100%	80%	35%	12%
GWS Giants	100%	35%	3%	-
Western Bulldogs	100%	9%	-	-
West Coast	100%	10%	-	-
North Melbourne	94%	-	-	-
Melbourne	6%	-	-	-

The final make-up of the top eight could be decided before North Melbourne’s final round clash against GWS at Etihad Stadium, which will start just hours the Melbourne’s match against Geelong is over.

The Cats will be a warm favourite at their home ground but it’s worth remembering the Dees beat them at the Cattery by 24 points last year.

And Geelong’s form against teams outside the top eight has been scratchy with defeats to Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda before last Sunday’s lucky escape against Richmond.

Should Melbourne beat Geelong, it will be up to the Roos to either win against the Giants or ensure a loss doesn’t do much damage to their percentage.

Melbourne is 3.7 per cent behind North Melbourne.