AFL 2016 finals formguide: Burning questions for week one match-ups
WHICH Geelong will turn up in finals, are the Bulldogs finally out of steam and can Todd Goldstein resurrect North Melbourne’s finals hopes? Every final dissected plus our early verdict.
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CAN anyone stop Buddy? Which Geelong will turn up in finals, are the Bulldogs finally out of steam and will Todd Goldstein produce something special to resurrect North Melbourne’s finals hopes?
Jay Clark and Gilbert Gardiner pull apart the first four finals match-ups of 2016.
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL: WEST COAST V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Thursday 8th September, 8.10pm EST, Domain Stadium
EAGLES BURNING QUESTIONS
CAN JON GILES BE THE NEXT CLARK KEATING?
Keating’s Grand Final heroics are folklore, stepping up and dominating on the big stage. And after Nic Naitanui’s horrible ACL injury, journeyman ruckman Giles has the chance to play a profound role in the Eagles’ finals campaign in Naitanui’s absence. Remarkably on Friday night in just his third game of the season, Giles turned on a blinder in the ruck and deep forward to upstage the Crows on their home deck in tandem with a hobbled Scott Lycett. It gave the Eagles’ gun midfield a good look at the ball in the centre square and another tall target to feed off inside 50m, with Giles taking a pearler in the teeth of goal. In an unpredictable year, just like Brisbane big man Keating, he could be an unlikely hero.
WHAT’S THE SUBIACO SECRET?
They have been horrible on the road this season, but is there a harder task for the Bulldogs than trying to win at Subiaco Oval? Doubt it. The fast and skinny track suits the way the Eagles zone-off in the back half and kick long to their big forwards in attack. And in the past month, they have turned the competition on its head in a way. The Eagles, who dropped to $31 to win the flag before their late charge, have beaten the Giants (away), Hawks (home) and Crows (away) and are probably the form side of the AFL. Tom Barrass has shone in the second key defensive spot and is keeping best-and-fairest winner Eric Mackenzie out of the team. Jeremy McGovern is also marking everything down back and will make life for Tom Boyd, Jake Stringer and Co difficult.
BULLDOGS BURNING QUESTIONS
WILL THEY RUN OUT OF STEAM?
Two trips to Perth in a fortnight is hardly ideal but Luke Beveridge will now thank his lucky stars there is at least a bye week to freshen the Dogs’ legs in between. Sunday’s performance didn’t inspire much confidence and there are plenty of pundits who will say the extraordinary injury toll will finally catch up with the Dogs with gun midfielders Jackson Macrae and Tom Liberatore in a race to be fit for the elimination final. Jake Stringer should get the recall, too, after a fortnight in the VFL. But Beveridge has proven to be something of a miracle-worker already this season and nothing seems beyond one of the most talented young sides in the competition.
CAN THEY KICK A WINNING SCORE?
If there’s a knock on the Dogs, it’s the forward setup. The Scraggers have hit the three-figure mark only six times this season, or on average once a month across the whole campaign. Tom Boyd has kicked 10 goals for the season, but he has the capacity to bring their other mobile forward targets into the game if he can provide a strong contest and make McGovern accountable. Stringer is the main threat, but Tory Dickson is a sharpshooter and Marcus Bontempelli and Lin Jong will have to hit the scoreboard, too, for the Dogs to have any hope of matching the Eagles’ midfield-forward potency.
TAB ODDS
WEST COAST $1.30, WESTERN BULLDOGS $3.55
FLAG
WEST COAST $15, WESTERN BULLDOGS $51
THIS SEASON
R11 Western Bulldogs 12.11 (83) d West Coast 11.9 (75), Etihad Stadium
INJURY LIST
WEST COAST
Tom Lamb (finger) test
Scott Lycett (knee) test
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Marcus Adams (foot) 1-2 weeks
Tom Liberatore (ankle) 1 week
Jack Macrae (hamstring) 1 week
Jordan Roughead (calf) 1 week
Easton Wood (ankle) 1-2 weeks
EARLY CALL: Eagles by 18 points
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL: SYDNEY V GWS GIANTS
Saturday 10th September, 3.20pm EST, ANZ Stadium
SWANS BURNING QUESTIONS
CAN ANYONE STOP BUDDY?
He’s got a taste for it, does Buddy Franklin, and the only way to stop him it seems is by driving an accidental elbow into his midriff, as North Melbourne defender Scott Thompson found out. Franklin has kicked 13 goals in his past three games in bags of six and seven. If his record in finals stands up the Swans will be very hard to beat. He only battled against GWS last time with two goals from 18 disposals, but he comes into the qualifying final in a lot sharper form. The other problem for opposition teams is if Buddy doesn’t get you, Swans Kurt Tippett, Isaac Heeney and the raft of goalkicking midfielders probably will.
WILL THEIR DEFENCE HOLD UP?
The finish line is within sight for the stingy Swans, who need only hold it together for another 12 quarters of football. The Swans conceded an average 66 points a game this year — the second fewest in a season since 1969. Dane Rampe, Heath Grundy and Nick Smith have held up their end of the bargain, while the inclusion of runaway Rising Star favourite Callum Mills and intercept marking specialist Aliir Aliir has been seamless. The Swans lead almost every defensive category, but if they’ve got a weakness it’s scores conceded from turnovers.
GIANTS BURNING QUESTIONS
WILL THEY GET STAGE FRIGHT?
Ask any opposition player about the Giants and the conversation usually heads in a predictable direction. Talented? Extremely. Hard-running? Certainly. Chirpy? You betcha. The trash-talking Giants have been telling rival players for years this day was coming and, true to form, the bold, brash and confident youngsters from Western Sydney should love the September spotlight. A lot of these guys have repeatedly said they are craving the chance to show their wares in front of a full house, and the MCG is the one they dream about. Don’t expect them to get all nervous now and the added experience of big-game players Steve Johnson and Heath Shaw only helps.
WHO DO YOU HAVE TO STOP?
Heath Shaw is one of the AFL’s most remarkable stories. The defender had a meltdown in his last game for Collingwood in a final against Port Adelaide and was sent up north to the Giants. But Shaw will be crowned All-Australian for the second-straight year on Thursday might and is the hugely important rudder that directs the Giants’ play from the backline. Playing a shut-down forward on Shaw is not only the way to curb his influence, it’s also the best bet to try and get under his skin and distract him from the crucial leadership role he plays down back.
TAB ODDS
SYDNEY $1.45, GWS $2.75
FLAG
SYDNEY $3, GWS $7
THIS SEASON
R3, GWS 15.15 (105) d Sydney 9.9 (63), Spotless Stadium
R12, Sydney 14.9 (93) d GWS 10.8 (68), SCG
INJURY LIST
SYDNEY SWANS
Abe Davis (ankle) 1 week
Zak Jones (ankle) 1 week
Callum Mills (calf) 1 week
Sam Reid (calf/achilles) 6-8 weeks
Daniel Robinson (shoulder) 1 week
GWS GIANTS
Lachie Whitfield (ribs) test
Matt Buntine (concussion) test
Callum Sinclair (knee) 1-2 weeks
EARLY CALL: Swans by 5 points
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL: GEELONG V HAWTHORN
Friday 9th September, 7.50pm EST, MCG
CATS BURNING QUESTIONS
JEKYLL OR HYDE?
Chris Scott has been scratching his head all season when assessing the huge variances in the Cats’ form. Against some of the lower sides, they have been atrocious, losing to Carlton and Collingwood and struggling to get over the line against Richmond. But there was no such trouble against Melbourne on Saturday as the Cats tuned up with an 111-point win to hit the line in fine form. From here, it’s fair to assume Geelong will play towards its best given what is at stake, and there is no better way to kick-start a finals campaign against arch-enemy Hawthorn.
WHICH IS THE GREATEST SIDE OF THE MODERN ERA?
It’s not a debate that can be settled quickly. There’s the Cats with three premierships (2007, 09 and 11) and the Hawks with four (2008, 13, 14 and 15). We are constantly assured by the Hawks that they are as hungry and as determined as ever, and that they will rely more heavily on their young players this season. An unbelievable effort. Geelong is new-look, after a trade period spit and polish last year, and is ready to try and square the ledger at four flags apiece. Expect there will be plenty of feeling between the two sides when the foes meet in a fortnight.
HAWKS BURNING QUESTIONS
IS WEEK ONE VITAL TO THE FOURPEAT?
For all their knockers and doubters, the Hawks have done it again. A win over arch-rivals Geelong next week and the Hawks get a weekend off and home preliminary final. It’s the perfect recipe for success on the first Saturday in October. A loss in week one would see the Hawks host West Coast or the Dogs at the MCG before a tricky trip north to face Sydney or GWS Giants. Win or lose in week one, Hawthorn will be the team to beat on the September stage.
SHOULD THE CATS TAG MITCHELL?
No. Focus too much on Mitchell and his mates will cut you to ribbons. There is evidence to suggest tagging Mitchell can bring the Hawks undone — refer Sydney’s Tom Mitchell’s efforts in Round 9 — but more often than not the future Hall of Fame midfielder will get enough damaging possessions regardless of whether he is tagged or not. Instead, Geelong should focus on limiting the outside run of Isaac Smith and Bradley Hill to bring the reigning premier down.
TAB ODDS
GEELONG $1.70, HAWTHORN $2.15
FLAG
GEELONG $4, HAWTHORN $5
THIS SEASON
R1 Geelong 18.8 (116) d Hawthorn 12.14 (86), MCG
INJURY LIST
GEELONG
Patrick Dangerfield (shoulder) test
Jake Kolodjashnij (calf) test
Scott Selwood (hamstring) test
Lachie Henderson (knee) 1-2 weeks
HAWTHORN
Ben McEvoy (back) test
Daniel Howe (calf) test
Ben Stratton (pectoral) 1 week
EARLY CALL: Hawthorn by 1 points
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL: ADELAIDE V NORTH MELBOURNE
Saturday 10th September, 7.40pm EST, Adelaide Oval
CROWS BURNING QUESTIONS
CAN STOPPING SLOANE STOP THE CROWS?
The Crows tick a lot of boxes but the AFL match review panel might have just uncovered a weak spot. Stop Rory Sloane, likely to make his All-Australian debut this week, and you might be able to stop Adelaide’s premiership push. Sloane, who is averaging a career-high 25 disposals, seven tackles and five clearances, brings pressure and score involvements to Adelaide’s midfield — both crucial to winning finals. Stop Sloane and the blowtorch moves to the Crouch brothers, Richard Douglas and veteran Scott Thompson to carry the burden.
IS ADELAIDE COOKED?
The Crows looked every bit a genuine premiership threat before losing to West Coast on Friday night. But having their colours lowered on home soil now means the Crows must travel to Sydney and Melbourne in the next five weeks to deliver a third premiership cup to West Lakes. Therein lies the problem. Adelaide hasn’t been to Sydney yet this season, and its only wins at the MCG were against an improved Melbourne and battler Carlton. The Crows have struggled on the road against genuine top-eight opposition (1-4) making back-to-back-back away games to win a premiership a seemingly impossible task.
KANGAROOS BURNING QUESTIONS
WILL FINALS BRING THE BEST OUT OF THE ROOS?
They’ve been here before but never this banged up. Not only is match fitness a concern for Brad Scott’s shell-shocked Roos, but the looming departure of favourite sons Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo looks to have sucked the life out of what’s left of the Shinboners. Unlike previous failed finals campaigns, this one starts at the Adelaide Oval where the Roos have an average losing margin of 48 points.
CAN GOLDY CARRY THE KANGAS?
He’s the best ruckman in the business on his day, but Todd Goldstein has struggled to capture the form that brought him competition-wide acclaim last year. His deft taps and work around the ground will again be crucial if the Kangaroos are to progress beyond the first week of finals. Goldy should be fresh after being given some relief against GWS Giants with Majak Daw and Drew Petrie pinch-hitting against Shane Mumford. A lot needs to go North’s way in September and it starts with Goldstein.
TAB ODDS
ADELAIDE $1.20, NORTH MELBOURNE $4.60
FLAG
ADELAIDE $8, NORTH MELBOURNE $81
THIS SEASON
R1, North Melbourne 16.11 (107) d Adelaide 14.13 (97), Etihad Stadium
R16, Adelaide 12.28 (100) d North Melbourne 10.7 (67), Adelaide Oval
INJURY LIST
ADELAIDE
Alex Keath (back) 3-4 weeks
Luke Lowden (ankle) 2-3 weeks
Keenan Ramsey (ankle) test
Paul Seedsman (corked buttock) test
Brodie Smith (concussion) 1 week
NORTH MELBOURNE
Jamie Macmillan (hip) test
Farren Ray (hamstring) 1 week
Scott Thompson (adductor) TBC
Kayne Turner (hamstring) test
Jarrad Waite (hip) test
Mason Wood (knee) 2 weeks
EARLY CALL: Adelaide by 36 points
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