Footy Form: Where the value might lie for punters in Round 6 of the AFL season
Round 6 is here in the AFL and there looks like being a little bit of value around for punters, with some favourites hardly deserving. Plus, who have been the big market movers with TAB?
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Round 6 is here in the AFL and there looks like being a little bit of value around for punters.
We’ve taken a look at every game to find out where it is.
Plus, who have been the big market movers with TAB in the futures markets this week?
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COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN
Giants Stadium, Friday 7.50pm
Interesting game, this one, between two sides that didn’t perform well last week.
Two main things worry me about Collingwood. The first is they are missing arguably three of their best six players now in Jordan De Goey, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe. The second is that Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson holds a 12-1 record against his Collingwood counterpart Nathan Buckley since 2012.
In such cases, I find it hard not to side with history.
I think the Hawks are over the odds.
Consider Hawthorn by 1-39 points at $2.50.
TAB ODDS: COLLINGWOOD $1.67 HAWTHORN $2.25
Collingwood has attracted 74% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
MAGPIES v HAWKS — CHASING THE MONEY
– HAWTHORN is coming off a 34-point loss to Greater Western Sydney while Collingwood is coming off a 15-point loss to Essendon last week.
– THE Hawks scored a four-point win last time these sides met in Round 16 last year, 9.13 (67) to 9.9 (63).
– HAWTHORN has won its past three clashes against Collingwood dating back to Round 15, 2017 and 12 of the past 13 games between the sides since Round 1, 2012.
– COLLINGWOOD’S only win over Hawthorn since 2012 came by 18 points at the MCG in Round 9, 2017.
– THE Magpies have scored just one win and one draw from four games since the season restart.
– THE Hawks hold a 2-2 record since the season restart.
– THE Magpies have a 3-3 record at Giants Stadium since 2012, while the Hawks have never won from four matches at the venue.
TAB’S FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Collingwood’s Adam Treloar and Hawthorn’s Jaeger O’Meara to both record 25+ disposals is $5.50.
FREMANTLE v ST KILDA
Metricon, Saturday 12.35pm
I didn’t rate the Saints too highly going into the season, but they’ve proven me wrong and could well play finals for the first time since 2011.
Brett Ratten has his side playing a fast, attacking brand of football that will trouble most sides on their day.
St Kilda has won three of four games since the season restart, those wins coming by an average of 28 points.
The Saints will be too good for the one-win Dockers, but Freo’s biggest loss has been 29 points so consider St Kilda by 1-39 points at $1.80.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $3.10 ST KILDA $1.37
St Kilda has attracted 56% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
WEST COAST v ADELAIDE
Gabba, Saturday 3.05pm
Nick Riewoldt thinks Adelaide is in for five years of pain, so fortunes don’t look like turning around this year.
The Crows remain winless with an average losing margin of 38 points and, while the Eagles haven’t been great, West Coast is coming off a confidence-boosting win over Sydney last week.
The Eagles have won four of their past five games over the Crows, but the last two have come by 12 points or less.
Still, you would think they cover the -32.5 point line.
TAB ODDS: WEST COAST $1.15 ADELAIDE $5.50
West Coast has attracted 84% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
MELBOURNE v GOLD COAST
GIANTS, Saturday 6.05pm
I’m not sure Melbourne has done enough to deserve to go into this one as favourites.
The Demons were again poor against Richmond last week and have won just one of their four games.
The side hasn’t kicked more than eight goals in a match this season — scores which aren’t going to win many clashes.
Gold Coast got a bit of a reality check from Geelong last week, but has still won three of its past four games.
I like the Suns by 1-39 points at $2.50.
TAB ODDS: MELBOURNE $1.72 GOLD COAST $2.15
Gold Coast has attracted 82% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
ESSENDON v NORTH MELBOURNE
Metricon, Saturday 7.50pm
Expect some spice in this one, for these two teams don’t like each other much.
I like the Bombers to take the points, though, in what would be a fourth win in five games.
Essendon has won its past four matches against North Melbourne and the Kangaroos have dropped off badly since a strong start to the season.
Consider Essendon by 1-39 points at $1.95.
TAB ODDS: ESSENDON $1.62 NTH MELBOURNE $2.35
Essendon has attracted 87% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
PORT ADELAIDE v GWS GIANTS
Metricon, Sunday 1.05pm
Has the Power gone out at Port Adelaide? Last week’s hefty loss to Brisbane certainly wasn’t great.
At the same time, the Giants are building into the team we thought they would be at the start of the year with strength across the ground.
GWS has also won its past five games against Port Adelaide since 2016.
I think the Giants win, just.
TAB ODDS: PORT ADELAIDE $1.95 GWS GIANTS $1.85
Port Adelaide has attracted 55% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
RICHMOND v SYDNEY
Gabba, Sunday 3.35pm
A lot of talent out of the Richmond side, but the Tigers have fought through similar situations well before.
The Swans still don’t have an experienced key forward and haven’t kicked more than six goals from their past two games. The Swans might have a midfield advantage, but the Tigers look stronger elsewhere.
TAB ODDS: RICHMOND $1.75 SYDNEY $2.10
Richmond has attracted 67% of head-to-head bets with TAB.
CARLTON v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Metricon, Sunday 6.45pm
It’s been a strange season to date, but you’d think this is fairly straightforward.
The Bulldogs are up and about and have won their past three games by four goals or more and are good enough to beat anyone on their day.
The Blues have been far from disgraced and have upset Essendon and Geelong, but this will be tough.
Bulldogs to cover the -10.5 point line at $1.90 for me.
TAB ODDS: CARLTON $2.50 WESTERN BULLDOGS $1.55
Western Bulldogs have attracted 78% of head-to-head bets with TAB.