Footy Form: Best bets, tips, previews for Round 14 of the AFL
The Western Bulldogs might be going nicely, but can they topple the might of Geelong on Friday night? We preview the rest of Round 14’s games from a punter’s perspective to help you find some value.
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Round 14 is here, with some big games on the cards.
We’ve taken a look at the rest of the round’s matches from a punter’s perspective to try and find you a winner.
Plus, scroll down for all of this week’s TAB Market Movers.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v GEELONG
Metricon, Friday 7.50pm
I expected a bigger win for Geelong last week, but the Cats were a little flat against a winless Adelaide.
Still, they got the job done with a 28-point victory.
It’s worth noting that the last time these sides met, the Bulldogs got up by 16 points.
Their pace and fast ball movement has the potential to upset Geelong.
However, Harry Taylor is set to return to what has been a rock solid Cats defence this year, one which should be able to stifle the Bulldogs’ attack.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tom Hawkins kicked another bag to help the Cats to another win, but the Bulldogs should keep it close enough.
Consider Geelong by 1-39 points at $1.90
TAB ODDS: WESTERN BULLDOGS $2.50 GEELONG $1.55
Moneyball: Geelong has attracted 89 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
CHASING THE MONEY — WESTERN BULLDOGS v GEELONG
— GEELONG is coming off a five-day break since scoring a 28-point win over Adelaide last Sunday.
— WESTERN Bulldogs are coming off a six-day break since beating Melbourne by 28 points last Saturday.
— THE Cats have won their past four games and eight of their past 10 matches overall.
— THE Bulldogs have won their past two matches, after losing their previous three games.
— WESTERN Bulldogs scored a 16-point win last time they met Geelong in Round 16 last year.
— GEELONG and the Western Bulldogs have split the past four games played between one another 2-2.
— THE Bulldogs hold a 4-2 record at Metricon Stadium this season, while the Cats have won their only match at the venue this year by 60 points over Port Adelaide in Round 12.
— GEELONG averages 73 points a game this season (ranked 1st), while Western Bulldogs average 65 points a game (ranked 8th).
— DEFENSIVELY the Cats average just 52 points per game against (ranked 1st), while the Bulldogs concede 64 points a game (ranked 14th).
— THE Bulldogs and the Cats both average 43 inside-50s a game, but Geelong averages five more clearances (34-29).
FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Western Bulldogs’ Jack Macrae and Geelong’s Cam Guthrie to combine for 60+ disposals is $4.50.
PORT ADELAIDE v SYDNEY
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1.45pm
The Swans were woeful when it came to getting a score on the board against Fremantle last week, kicking just two goals for the game.
And it doesn’t get any easier for them this week against the ladder-leader.
Port ranks fourth in the competition defensively as well as offensively and is averaging 69 points a game compared to Sydney’s 52.
Last time the Power met the Swans in Round 21 last year they scored a 47-point win.
Expect them to cover the -29.5 point line here.
TAB ODDS: PORT ADELAIDE $1.14 SYDNEY $5.80
Moneyball: Port Adelaide has attracted 94 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
FREMANTLE v GWS GIANTS
Optus Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm
I smell an upset here.
Fremantle has won three of its past four games and defensively has been as strong as anyone with its pressure and structure, conceding an average of just 35 points a game during that period.
There was some better signs from the Giants last week, but they are still low on confidence and struggling to score once inside-50.
Things have changed, but the Dockers also beat GWS in Round 5 last year.
Fremantle by 1-39 points looks value at $2.80.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $2.45 GWS GIANTS $1.57
Moneyball: GWS has attracted 56 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
MELBOURNE v ST KILDA
Alice Springs, Saturday 7.40pm
A huge game for both teams as far as finals are concerned.
The Saints aren’t quite locked in just yet, and the Demons are desperate to jump back into the top-eight after slipping up against the Western Bulldogs last week.
The fact is Melbourne is 1-6 against top-eight teams this season, so I don’t have much faith in them against a St Kilda side that has won five of its past seven matches.
The Saints just need to match the Dees in the middle.
Whether or not Max Gawn plays could be vital.
TAB ODDS: MELBOURNE $2.05 ST KILDA $1.80
Moneyball: St Kilda has attracted 70 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD
Gabba, Sunday 3.35pm
This looms as the biggest game between the rivals in 20 years, in what is their first meeting anywhere but the MCG in two decades.
The Blues haven’t beaten the Magpies since 2017, but also haven’t had their tails up this much for some time, having won six of their past 10 games including their past two matches.
In saying that, Collingwood was much-improved against North Melbourne last round.
They lose the classy Steele Sidebottom, but should re-gain key forward Brody Mihocek.
Even with some key injuries, I think the Magpies are still a rung above the Blues and should win a close one.
Consider Collingwood by 1-39 points at $2.05.
TAB ODDS: CARLTON $2.05 COLLINGWOOD $1.80
Moneyball: Carlton has attracted 97 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
GOLD COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE
Metricon Stadium, Sunday 6.10pm
I think this is a little bit more of an even-money game than the odds suggest.
However, I am still tipping the favourites in the Suns.
Gold Coast had a shocker against Carlton last week, but for a young side off a four-day break I expected that.
They have since had a nine-day break to freshen up and should be ready to attack a very winnable game against the struggling Kangaroos, who have lost 10 of their past 11 matches.
North Melbourne has won its past two games against Gold Coast, but isn’t the side it has been and still has an injury list as long as your arm.
At home, where the Suns have scored three of their four wins this year, I think Gold Coast gets the job done.
Gold Coast by 1-24 points looks appealing at $2.70.
TAB ODDS: GOLD COAST $1.60 NTH MELBOURNE $2.40
Moneyball: Gold Coast has attracted 83 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
TAB ROUND 14 BIG BETS
$8000 @ $1.20 on Port Adelaide d Sydney
$5977 @ $1.16 on Port Adelaide d Sydney
$5000 @ $1.62 on GWS d Fremantle
$2000 @ $4.50 on West Coast (Premiership)
$1000 @ $67 on Carlton (Premiership)
TAB MARKET MOVERS
PREMIERSHIP
West Coast remain $4.50 favourites
Richmond were $5.50 before Round 13 and are now $5
Brisbane Lions were $7 before Round 13 and are now $6
Geelong ($6) and Port Adelaide ($8) remain unchanged following Round 13
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Lachie Neale ($1.40) and Christian Petracca ($8) remain unchanged after Round 13
Patrick Dangerfield was $21 before Round 13 and is now $17
Marcus Bontempelli was $34 before Round 13 and is now $26
Jack Steele was $29 before Round 13 and is now $26
COLEMAN MEDAL
Tom Hawkins was $2.50 before Round 13 and is now $1.90 favourite
West Coast’s Josh Kennedy was $2.25 before Round 13 and is now $2.40
Charlie Dixon was $10 before Round 13 and is now $13
Matt Taberner was $17 before Round 13 and is now $13
Mitch Wallis was not quoted before Round 13 and is now $34
RISING STAR
Caleb Serong was $3 before Round 13 and is now $2.60 favourite
Izak Rankine was $3 before Round 13 and is now $3.75
Max King ($5) remains unchanged following Round 13
Noah Anderson was $5 before Round 13 and is now $6