Footy Form: AFL best bets for Round 12, TAB market movers
As we edge closer to the finals, we’re still no clearer on the make up of the eight. All of a sudden, the Dees are the form side and the Pies are in all sorts. Here’s where the value is for punters and all this week’s TAB market movers.
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A bumper Round 12 is here as competition heats up in the lead up to finals.
We’ve taken a look at all the games from a punter’s perspective to try to find some value.
Plus, scroll down for this week’s TAB market movers.
LADDER PREDICTOR: WHERE EVERY CLUB WILL FINISH
GEELONG v PORT ADELAIDE
Metricon, Friday 7.50pm
A battle between two of the in-form teams of the comp, this shapes as a beauty.
I’ve tipped the Cats, on the basis I think their midfield is strong enough to match the Power and defensively they should be able to stifle Port’s attack.
The fact this game is in Queensland and not Adelaide Oval is also a deciding factor.
However, I am mindful the Cats are coming off a four-day break — two days less than Port. Still, after Monday’s belting of St Kilda, I’ll stick with Geelong.
Consider Geelong by 1-39 points at $2.50.
TAB ODDS: GEELONG $2.15 PORT ADELAIDE $1.72
Moneyball: Port Adelaide has attracted 74% of head-to-head support with TAB
CHASING THE MONEY – GEELONG v PORT ADELAIDE
— Geelong is coming off a four-day break since scoring a 59-point win over St Kilda on Monday.
— Port Adelaide is coming off a six-day break since scoring a 21-point win over Richmond.
— The Cats have won six of their past eight matches, including their past two outings.
— The Power have won five of their past six matches, including their past three games.
— These two teams last met in Round 14 last year, the Power scoring an 11-point win at Adelaide Oval.
— Prior to that match, Geelong had won four-straight games against Port Adelaide dating back to 2015.
— Port Adelaide holds a 4-0 record at Metricon Stadium this season while the Cats are yet to play at the venue.
— Both teams average 72 points for a game.
FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Geelong’s Tom Hawkins and Port Adelaide’s Charlie Dixon to combine for 5+ goals is $3
NORTH MELBOURNE v BRISBANE LIONS
Metricon, Saturday 2.35pm
Second versus third-last makes this a pretty easy game to tip.
The Kangaroos are going from bad to worse and have lost seven of their past eight games.
The Lions, meanwhile, have won four of their past five matches and are the highest-scoring team in the competition, averaging 73 points a game — a points tally North has reached just twice this season.
The Lions should be able to cover the -28.5 point line at $1.90.
TAB ODDS: NTH MELBOURNE $5.20 BRISBANE $1.16
Moneyball: Brisbane has attracted 91% of head-to-head support with TAB
MELBOURNE v COLLINGWOOD
Gabba, Saturday 5.10pm
Value alert.
Melbourne has lost its past four games against Collingwood, but this is as good a chance as the Demons will get to turn the tables.
The Demons have found a little bit of form over the past two weeks, scoring a 51-point win over Adelaide and a 57-point win over North Melbourne. This is a bigger test, but one they look ready for, especially given the wounded Pies are playing the last of four games in 14 days.
Consider Melbourne by 1-39 points at $2.10.
TAB ODDS: MELBOURNE $1.90 COLLINGWOOD $1.90
Moneyball: Collingwood has attracted 53% of head-to-head support with TAB
FREMANTLE v CARLTON
Perth Stadium, Saturday 8.10pm
I like what the Dockers have been building over recent weeks — a game plan built around high pressure and contest.
After a slow start to the year, they have won four of their past six games, including over Collingwood and St Kilda.
The Blues are simply too inconsistent, not just week-to-week but also within games, which showed again last weekend as a halftime lead turned into a four-goal loss to West Coast.
I like the Dockers at home by 1-24 points at $2.90.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $2.05 CARLTON $1.80
Moneyball: Fremantle has attracted 82% of head-to-head support with TAB
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ADELAIDE
Metricon, Sunday 1.05pm
As up and down as the Bulldogs have been, I can’t see the Crows winning a game this season and if they do I don’t think it will be this one.
The Dogs have lost their past three games — to top-six sides Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Richmond — but have a 4-1 record against bottom-10 teams and should cover the -34.5 point line.
TAB ODDS: W BULLDOGS $1.12 ADELAIDE $6.20
Moneyball: Adelaide has attracted 55% of head-to-head support with TAB
ST KILDA v ESSENDON
Gabba, Sunday 3.35pm
I’m not reading too much into the Saints’ 59-point loss to Geelong on Monday, given they looked cooked off a four-day break and the Cats are flying.
The Saints now have a six-day break entering this match, against the Bombers who are off just four days.
Expect the Saints to cover the -15.5 point line at $2.
TAB ODDS: ST KILDA $1.40 ESSENDON $2.95
WEST COAST v HAWTHORN
Perth Stadium, Sunday 6.10pm
Anyone who thought a Round 9 win over Carlton would be a turning point for the Hawks was wrong.
Hawthorn managed just four goals in a 16-point loss to Fremantle last week and has vowed to play the kids as any hope of featuring in finals this year disappeared.
The Eagles at home will win this — by some margin.
TAB ODDS: WEST COAST $1.18 HAWTHORN $4.80
Moneyball: West Coast has attracted 95% of head-to-head support with TAB
RICHMOND v GOLD COAST
Gabba, Monday 7.10pm
The Suns again showed against Essendon on Wednesday that they won’t go down without a fight. But you sense they the in-form Tigers will be too big a hurdle to clear.
Expect the Tigers — off a nine-day break — to bounce back after last week’s loss to Port Adelaide, but the Suns should keep it close.
TAB ODDS: RICHMOND $1.30 GOLD COAST $3.50
MORE AFL:
Deep dive: 13 reasons why Essendon is mired in mediocrity, but there is still hope
AFL 2021: Clubs already beginning to think ahead to whether fans will be allowed to attend games
TAB MARKET MOVERS
ROUND 12 BIG BETS
$18,640 @ $1.60 on Lachie Neale (Brownlow Medal)
$10,000 @ $1.60 on Lachie Neale (Brownlow Medal)
$10,000 Multi @ $1.45 on Collingwood d Adelaide (Collingwood won by 24 points), Brisbane Lions d North Melbourne
$5,000 Multi @ $1.35 on Brisbane Lions d North Melbourne, West Coast d Hawthorn
$4,514 @ $1.17 on West Coast d Hawthorn
$1,000 @ $11 on Geelong (Premiership)
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Lachie Neale ($1.60) is the shortest-priced Brownlow Medal favourite in TAB history after 11 rounds since Gary Davies kept records in 1998.
Nat Fyfe was $1.75 after Round 11 when he took ‘Charlie’ home in 2015, while Gary Ablett was $2.20 after 11 rounds when he was victorious in 2009.
Before Round 16 in 2014, Gary Ablett was $1.60 until he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury while Anthony Koutoufides was $1.80 before Round 20, 2000 until he injured his knee and was ruled out for the remainder of the season.
TAB SHORTEST-PRICED BROWNLOW MEDAL FAVOURITES AFTER 11 ROUNDS
$1.75 Nat Fyfe in 2015 Fyfe won
$2.20 Gary Ablett in 2009 Ablett won ($3 at start of count)
$2.50 Anthony Koutoufides in 2000 Shane Woewodin won ($13 at start of count)
$2.75 Tom Mitchell in 2018 Mitchell won
$3 Robert Harvey in 1998 Harvey won ($2.85 at start of count)
PREMIERSHIP ODDS
$4.50 West Coast ($4.50 before Round 11)
$6 Richmond ($5 before Round 11)
$6.50 Port Adelaide ($8 before Round 11)
$7 Brisbane Lions ($7 before Round 11)
$8 GWS ($8 before Round 11)
$10 Collingwood ($11 before Round 11)
$11 Geelong ($13 before Round 11)
$17 St Kilda ($15 before Round 11)
$34 Western Bulldogs ($34 before Round 11)
$41 Melbourne ($51 before Round 11)
$67 Essendon ($67 before Round 11)
$81 Carlton ($67 before Round 11)
$151 Fremantle ($251 before Round 11)
Gold Coast ($151 before Round 11)
Hawthorn ($81 before Round 11)
$501 Sydney ($501 before Round 11)