Nothing can be taken for granted in even 2017 season, writes Mick Malthouse
IT is the most even season in AFL history but who will rise up and win it all? Premiership coach MICK MALTHOUSE runs his eye over every team’s chances.
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IT’S unbelievable, really.
In one of the most even seasons in memory, there is not a single dominant team as we approach September.
Entering Round 19, the 14th team on the ladder was still a statistical chance of playing finals.
History is a great educator, but that too was thrown into confusion last year when the Western Bulldogs won the premiership from seventh.
That equation, funnily enough, remains a possibility again this season.
I think the final eight will stay as is, but given the way the season has gone it could change in the blink of an eye. The team that will win the premiership will need 25-28 very good, fit and confident players.
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Most lists don’t run that deep. Injuries are a part of our game but they can destroy a season.
Luck will always play a part in finals.
In the lead up to finals, it is vital to have a winning feeling and belief is essential.
Adelaide is in the box seat.
The form side of the competition is Sydney, but it may not even make the top four after Friday’s loss to the Hawks.
Port Adelaide, Geelong and GWS on any given day can be terrific. But maybe the Western Bulldogs of 2017 could be the Tigers, Demons or Bombers.
ADELAIDE has been reasonably consistent this year but its losses have been poor and unpredicted.
The Crows lack speed and accountability through the midfield, and this is their Achilles heel.
Their forwards are interchangeable and terrific, and their backs rank highly in the competition. To me, the key player to link these two lines together is Tom Lynch.
He has his work cut out for him in September.
A home final will give Adelaide an advantage like no other, and it could be duplicated in prelim week.
Winning the premiership means negotiating the MCG, but I’m sure Don Pyke will take that.
Geelong, in contrast, is hindered somewhat because its finals will presumably be played away from its home ground, at the MCG. But having said that the Cats play pretty well at the ’G.
GEELONG is more than a one-man band. However, when Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are both negated on matchday, this becomes the biggest risk to the Cats advancing.
Zach Tuohy has been a wonderful addition this season, providing Geelong with run from the backline.
It can be argued the forwards are inconsistent at best so the Cats may have to rely on Harry Taylor to shake it up when it’s crunch time.
When Geelong plays angry football it is very good. The losses come at unexplained times when there is a lack of real passion for the contest.
This trait opposes success in a finals series.
FOR a side with as much talent as GWS has, its inexplicable that it can have only one win from its past five games.
There’s no question that they have been severely hindered by multiple long-term injuries (of which they have never complained,) but their efforts to stay in the game all day should be questioned.
The Giants can be brilliant right across the board and then go into a stupor and lose focus and momentum, and seem unable to arrest it. As a consequence they are losing, or drawing games they should win.
I suspect, if and when they get key players like Stephen Coniglio, Brett Deledio, Toby Greene, Steve Johnson, Jeremy Cameron and Ryan Griffen back and match hardened, they will improve dramatically.
RICHMOND currently is the surprise packet. Falsely I have rated them on the performances of Alex Rance, Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt.
Trent Cotchin has stood up not only as a player, but he appears also to be over the burden of captaincy.
The Tigers game structure is sound. In the league’s top three for scores against, defensively they have reduced their opposition to scratching out a score, which in itself is great, however in these weeks leading up to finals they also need to demonstrate they can kick 100 plus points in a game, as they are also the lowest scoring side in the top eight on average.
Tight defence is an excellent trait to have going into finals but if a team gets away from you, you have to be able to counter score.
Richmond’s biggest concern going forward is having every player playing his role consistently, without having to rely just on the few I have mentioned.
PORT Adelaide amazingly is the least scored against team in the competition, but it can’t beat sides in the top eight. That gets you nowhere in finals.
There seems to be so many things working for them — Patrick Ryder in the ruck, with the big bodied Ollie Wines and Sam Powell-Pepper in the middle, and Travis Boak and Chad Wingard (when he overcomes his leg injury) from forward to the middle.
Its backline looks stable and it is the second highest scoring team in the league — and yet there is such doubt about them.
To me, Port seems to be able to bully sides in the lower half of the ladder, but becomes quite tame when the game is tighter and gets a bit more brutal against sides in the top eight.
They are an enigma.
SYDNEY is the complete opposite. It revels in the contest of big games. The last team to beat them was Hawthorn in Round 10.
It has been an amazing journey for John Longmire and his team because after a slow start to the season, once they hit the play button everything has come together.
There’s no doubt the SCG is a great advantage, but whichever ground they play on no one has been able to stand up to their relentless pressure in the last 10 weeks.
It’s an ominous sign. The Swans would still be hurting from last year’s Grand Final loss, so watch out if they make the top four.
Lance Franklin is at his confident best, and the young players who have been brought in — like Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Lewis Melican and Tom Papley — have given Sydney an added dimension.
The Swans are looking dangerous and they know it.
MELBOURNE has finally worked out that overuse of the ball is a waste of time.
It is playing with speed and confidence and now that Max Gawn appears to be getting back to top form, they almost have the right mix to go deep into September.
They have been starved of finals football for a long time so the hunger should be there.
I hope the discipline matters have been resolved. Bernie Vince copping a public spray from captain Nathan Jones was a good sign. Jones has done the hard yards at the Demons and doesn’t want this year wasted.
Jesse Hogan back gives them a target, and Tom McDonald has become one of the best swingmen in the competition.
If Melbourne sticks to its current type of play form and stays focused on a week-to- week basis, then speed and controlled aggression will give its supporters something to behold.
ESSENDON’S speed is only matched by Melbourne — in fact I would be prepared to say Essendon may be a smidgen faster across the ground.
They have the side to trouble most teams in the top eight. I don’t want to load up one player, but when Joe Daniher is on song, there are few defenders or around-the- ground ruckmen who can keep up with him. Essendon’s year and what’s left of it, may depend on his ability to play at his best in every game.
Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Orazio Fantasia have given the Bombers new life, but the team’s weakness is its lack of consistency in bringing a blitzkrieg approach to the ground every week. If this doesn’t materialise, then the lower half of the match day list can’t match up to the top eight sides.
The Bombers have been quite prolific in scoring, but they have been matched with high scores against. Again, shoot-outs in finals are a risky business.
Essendon’s chances are in its own hands.
THE West Coast Eagles are so predictable. They are not soft but they can play soft football, which lets the opposition back into the game without being able to stop them, as illustrated in their loss to Collingwood last weekend.
Their percentage is testament to the way their year has gone — not prolific in scoring, and likewise not overly defensive, allowing moderate to high scores against.
If Nic Naitanui can get back for finals it will make a massive difference, but all and sundry know that the physical demands of returning from a knee injury are matched only by the mental demands — it is basically a 12-month sentence.
I fear that the Eagle’s better players who are now in their late 20s early 30s just can’t sustain the intensity required to take them too far into September.
Adam Simpson has done everything in his power to reboot and redesign his team and it works, but then it fades. Winning at home now will not ensure a place in the finals.
IT wasn’t long ago that I was singing the praises of the Western Bulldogs’ game plan. However, it seems to have become too much of a burden to maintain.
The players look tired very quickly in matches. Tom Liberatore and Luke Dahlhaus are not having the same impact in the midfield as last year.
Their backs, while brave, are letting easier goals in. And no one is really standing up in the forward line to demand attention.
Dale Morris now out for the season will be missed.
As much as the Dogs are currently just outside the eight, the dynamics, tenacity and ‘scragger the dog’ attitude have dissipated.
Their game plan was always a labour of love - tough and uncompromising. But it needed willing bodies, and above all willing minds.
I’ve seen this before – when the mind and body just cannot continue at the same intensity over a prolonged period of time.
AFTER a magnificent game against Richmond, St Kilda has fallen off its perch.
It is a shadow of one of the best running sides in the league.
The Saints have sadly missed Tim Membrey who had become a major player in their forward line. Josh Bruce has been good but not great and Nick Riewoldt has continued to struggle, so their goals have dried up.
Their leakage at the other end has been enormous, but this is also due to the midfield being exposed. Jack Steven and Seb Ross have lacked penetration and effect and when they are taken out of the game the team becomes rudderless.
St Kilda may very well fall victim to the words consistency and intensity. I believe they are good enough for the eight, but will need to quickly change back into the supermen they were when they were winning games to make it.
HAWTHORN and Sydney have been the heavyweights of the competition for some time now, but this year one of them will miss finals.
The transformation of the Hawks since the beginning of this season has been incredible. Tom Mitchell has been a standout, plus young players like Ryan Burton, Daniel Howe, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick have altered the dynamics of the team.
They have been hit hard with injury and the form slide of some older players, but no one ever really wants to play the Hawks when it counts for a position in the eight.
There is not much wriggle room for them, and they need a lot of things to go their way, so even with recent big scalps the Hawks may run out of games to make the eight.
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