Mick McGuane: Hits and misses plus the talking points ahead of Port Adelaide vs. Essendon
Five rounds - including Opening round - is enough time to get a gauge on who is firing - and who is floundering - this season. Mick McGuane runs his eye over the hits and misses.
Mick McGuane
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‘On-the-road Easybeats’ or the ‘Essendon Edge’ … standby for an important audit of Brad Scott’s 2024 Bombers in Friday night’s prime-time Gather Round clash with Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.
For too long now the Bombers have been an easy kill whenever they have travelled outside Victoria.
Leaving aside an easy win over a depleted and dispirited West Coast last year, Essendon has lost six consecutive matches interstate.
Only three wins have come from the club’s past 12 games on the road, which isn’t good enough for a team aspiring for bigger things.
It’s time to change that narrative. Now.
This game provides the Bombers with an opportunity to make a statement – following on from last week’s win over St Kilda – against a likely top-eight team in Port Adelaide who might be vulnerable after a physical clash against Melbourne last week.
1. CHALLENGE THE LEG ROPE
I’ve got serious concerns about Port Adelaide’s key defenders – Aliir Aliir, Esava Ratugolea and former Bomber Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – and Essendon must take advantage of their shortcomings.
Let’s put it bluntly. The Power trio are vulnerable because they can’t run for long periods of the game. This gives opposition players plenty of ‘leg rope’ and smart players will often find themselves in space.
Those three defensive talls, along with Dan Houston, Kane Farrell, Ryan Burton and Lachie Jones, will be prepared to roll off their opponents and back themselves to read the play better than their respective opponents.
Essendon must be smart enough to take advantage of this opportunity, with the midfielders needing to lower their eyes and the forwards needing to keep the leading lanes open for the likes of Kyle Langford and Jake Stringer.
The statistical proof is in the pudding. Port’s defence is too easily exposed when it comes to opposition scores per inside 50m. Their rivals are scoring at 50 per cent per inside 50m, ranked 15th in the AFL.
That’s not good enough for a supposed premiership contender.
Part of that reason is that Aliir, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher blow up physically the longer the games go on.
Essendon should send Harry Jones to Aliir Aliir in an effort to take away his intercept capabilities, while Ben Hobbs and Jye Menzie can take away the run from two of the Power’s best distributors in Dan Houston and Kane Farrell.
The Bombers know that Zerk-Thatcher is not a great runner and isn’t overly quick. They must expose that.
If he goes to Stringer, Essendon must give him plenty of space to exploit his former teammate. Given the explosive way Jake leads, it is hard to see Zerk-Thatcher being able to stop him.
2. ALL DUCK, NO DINNER
Port Adelaide’s clearance game is good, but that’s only half the story.
The Power’s midfield can win first possession but when the ball spills out into open field, their effectiveness is questionable.
Too often they can expose their back line by not winning contested possession or the ground ball gets post clearance.
They are ranked 17th for contested possessions post clearance and 18th in ground ball gets post clearance.
You can’t keep rolling the dice … so Essendon must expose Port when the ball spills into open space.
Essendon can punish Port Adelaide, with Perkins in the best form of his young career, Setterfield hunting the footy, Parish accumulating the ball and Merrett getting career best numbers.
This can be the difference unless Butters, Rozee and co start hunting the ball post clearances.
3. CAN PORT’S RUCKS STAND UP?
The Goldstein-Draper ruck duo can physically test Ivan Soldo and Jeremy Finlayson.
Both big men will spend short periods of time as deep forwards, to have a strong down-the-line, deep entry presence. But the ruckman in charge can also challenge Soldo by sliding forward and influencing the air, exposing the Power big man’s defensive capabilities.
On the flip side, Goldstein and Draper must be aware that Finlayson is a mobile ruckman with the potential to be a multiple goalkicker when in the ruck.
POWER MATCH-UPS
Willem Drew will almost certainly go to Merrett, so the Bombers need to have a plan to give their captain the chance to get freed up.
They might need him to go to half forward or wing on occasions to take Drew to an area of the ground where he is not comfortable or force Ken Hinkley to change his plans.
If Merrett starts at half forward at centre bounce stoppages, he can roll up as the extra mid, which could leave the Power more than a little exposed.
Zerk-Thatcher could find himself playing on his old teammate Stringer. I question whether he has the initial speed to stop such a dynamic player, so that could be an advantage to Essendon.
That’s why the Bombers need to keep the leading lanes open.
If Stringer finds that sort of space, look out! He could once again be the Bombers match winner.
DONS MATCH-UPS
Aliir Aliir likes to peel off his opponent and take intercepts marks. Harry Jones cannot allow that to happen. Jones took 10 marks against the Saints last week and must use Aliir as his competitive starting point and always get into the vision of the ball carrier.
Essendon has made a massive financial investment in Ben McKay; so now is his time to shine. Dixon should be his initial match-up.
Ben, it’s time to justify your big pay packet!
CHALLENGING ESSENDON’S LEAKY DEFENCE
I’m not convinced the Bombers’ team defence is in sync and this is an area where Port Adelaide can make them pay.
Too often teams can go coast to coast against them.
Houston, Farrell and Burton can all win the footy and use it well, so Essendon must be wary of these guys who can turn defence into attack quickly, and it can be damaging if Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall end up being deep entry options.
If the pockets of space are not covered between the arcs, Essendon will be forced to win the ball back far too deep.
The Bombers need to turn it over between the arcs to stop this from happening, so pressure from their forwards and defenders being assertive with their positioning will be critical.
BOMBERS’ STOPPAGE GAME
This facet of the game has been a massive area of improvement for the Bombers, largely because of Todd Goldstein’s recruitment and the leadership and form of Zach Merrett.
Admittedly, Essendon’s mids will have to contend with a very good clearance team in Port Adelaide, fuelled by Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis and Willem Drew.
Port’s stoppage game was inefficient last week against Melbourne.
To have a +15 differential in clearances – the club’s sixth best return across the last five seasons – against Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and at times Kozzie Pickett was an impressive return.
The downside was the Power lost points from stoppages by 20 points, a season-low return.
The Bombers’ clearance game across the last two weeks against Hawthorn and St Kilda should give them confidence. They were +13 in clearances against the Saints in the second half, but couldn’t quite hit the scoreboard from that source, kicking an inaccurate 1.5 from stoppages.
Sam Durham will miss due to concussion, but it opens the door for Will Setterfield to return. Setterfield has already attended 52 centre bounces and will add to the existing strength of skipper Zach Merrett, the improved Archie Perkins, Darcy Parish and the ruck combination of Todd Goldstein and Sam Draper.
The Bombers ranked 16th for stoppages last year; this year they are ranked second. They were 12th in clearances and centre clearances in 2023; this year they are the No.1 side.
MICK’S EARLY HITS AND MISSES
I’m taking an early looks at the stars who have shone so far and those who need to lift after four completed rounds.
HITS
ZACH MERRETT
The Essendon skipper is racking up his highest-rated season to date, averaging a career-high 12 contested possessions, six clearances and four centre clearances. But what has impressed me the most is Merrett’s defensive intent. His one-on-one tackles are precisely what the Bombers need. He is setting the tone and leading the way. Is he the competition’s best captain right now?
ISAAC HEENEY
Opportunity meets preparation, and it is clear that Heeney has prepared his body and mind as well as ever leading into 2024. The Swans have been without Luke Parker, Callum Mills and Taylor Adams, which has seen Heeney exposed to 81 per cent of midfield time this season. He has flourished in the role, averaging 29 disposals, 13 contested possessions, eight clearances and 11 scoring involvements – all career highs. The dilemma for John Longmire is what happens when the cavalry returns, with Adams back this week. The non-negotiable should be that Heeney stays in the middle.
TOM GREEN
This is not the Green(e) we normally have in here. Tom, not Toby, is the Giants’ midfielder who has taken his game to another level, impacting in a different way to what he has previously done. We have always known him to be a good clearance player with tackling intent. Now he is taking ground with the ball, due to his strength and improved fitness levels. He has been involved in a 31 per cent change when it comes to scoring involvements and his metres gained has improved by 141 metres this year. He’s not just a first possession gains player now.
LUKE JACKSON
Sean Darcy’s untimely injury created an opportunity for Jackson, and he has quite literally run with it. As a mobile, athletic ruckman, he has averaged 22 disposals (11 contested), an incredible eight hit-outs to advantage and seven scoring involvements so far this season. The investment to bring Jackson home to Perth has been worth every cent. The real question is what will happen when Darcy is back playing again. Watch this space!
ARCHIE PERKINS
For a player who was initially anchored as part of Essendon’s forward mix, the young Bomber has developed another string to his bow, with 91 per cent midfield time this season. He has thrived in the role, averaging 22 disposals, six clearance and six scoring involvements per game, off the back of the hard work he put in across the summer months. Consistency hasn’t been his strong suit, but without Dylan Shiel, he has stood up and complemented a midfield that looks reinvigorated.
MISSES
TAYLOR WALKER
The Adelaide veteran has been one of the best modern forwards across the past decade, but has Father Time finally got hold of him? Or has his 2024 drop off been more a reflection of Adelaide’s attacking downfall? The Crows averaged 95 points last year (ranked 1st) but have managed only 55 this season (17th). Still, Walker must take ownership of his own conversion, with a wasteful 29 per cent accuracy. Is that his old legs? The next month is critical for him so we will soon find out.
TOBY GREENE
I love this bloke and what he stands for. He oozes leadership. His ability to win the ball is clear for everyone to see, but he is operating at 59 per cent kicking efficiency and 22 per cent shot at goal accuracy. He is a matchwinner, but he needs to tidy up his output in an area of the ground where conversion is at a premium.
JORDAN DAWSON
Does the skipper need to go back for the Crows to go forward, at least for the interim? Dawson’s move into the midfield last year was a masterstroke. But even though he is averaging 26 disposals, nine contested possessions, four clearances and 4.7 scoring involvements, maybe the time is right to push him to halfback for a few weeks in an attempt to get the team to rediscover their attacking mojo, in the same vein as Craig McRae switched Nick Daicos last week.
LACHIE SCHULTZ
Pressure is a part of his portfolio, which has been evident so far in his four games in black and white, but he is struggling to impact the game in a more offensive fashion. He has only had one forward 50m ground ball get so far this season. Is that because he doesn’t read it as well as he should, or can’t get there to win it? He is averaging four scoring involvements and has kicked three goals. I am all for pressure forwards, but you also need creative flair as a small forward. There is still that question mark on Collingwood’s ability to kick a winning score. Schultz was recruited to improve that – and needs to lift.
THE BRISBANE BOOKENDS
Harris Andrews needs to be better in critical one-on-one contests. He appears to be going at it with one hand instead of the surety of two, which looks like a confidence thing to me. Harry McKay got off him too easily in Opening Round and he looked tentative at times against the Magpies last week. He is a leader and needs to stand tall – with both hands assaulting the ball. At the other end, Eric Hipwood looks out of touch. He must impact games on a more consistent basis. You can’t have tentative players playing inconsistent footy in key-position roles at either end.
THE GOOD
Full credit for Laura Kane – and the AFL – for coming out and acknowledging the umpires got it wrong last Monday in regard to several of Jack Ginnivan’s headhigh contact moments. That’s the sort of accountability we need from AFL HQ. It’s OK to get things wrong, but don’t be afraid to tell us when you do.
THE BAD
Port Adelaide’s inability to defend Melbourne’s goal line last week. On three occasions the Power defenders failed to stop a goal from being scored, either by struggling with a Melbourne player shepherding the ball or the incompetence of Esava Ratugolea when he attempted to a chest mark the ball when it had clearly travelled over the line. Improve your game awareness. My under 10s at Keilor would have mastered that.
THE UGLY
Jack Ginnivan is still dropping and playing for free kicks, even though the umpires missed a couple of legitimate ones last week. C’mon Jack, play the game on its merits and play instinctive team football instead. Stop releasing one hand off the ball to shrug the tackler in search of a free kick, and use that hand to execute an effective handball to a teammate. On one occasion against the Cats, you missed the chance to give it off to Dylan Moore while searching for a free kick. Endear yourself to your new teammates and do what’s right for the team. Stay in the game!
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