Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the qualifying final between Geelong and Collingwood
Geelong must explode out of the blocks, and Collingwood can’t allow the Cats to dictate how the game is played. Mick McGuane reveals how the qualifying final will be won and lost.
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Collingwood is a high-volume team. It knows how to win the ball and it averages the most disposals in the AFL.
The Magpies have implemented more of a short kicking/marking game this year, which has made them No. 2 for marks in the league.
Collingwood is also a hard team to score against, and the numbers say they are the second-best team this season for points conceded. The best team? Geelong.
The Cats defend so well, and because of their use of the boundary line, they are also No.1 in the AFL for points conceded from turnovers.
Geelong’s other great strength is its contested work. The Cats have won every game this season in which they have won the contested possession count. But in the games where they have lost that count, they have lost every time.
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GEELONG
THE KEY
The Cats will want control, which is a crucial part of their execution. An important part of Geelong’s success is that they play on the least of any side. The Cats will want to use the boundary line when exiting the defensive 50, so that it gives their defenders behind the ball a chance to get set in terms of turnovers. The Cats like to build from the back with good ball use matched with boundary line direction. Control is key for them.
THE THEME
The theme will be the start — Geelong must start in an explosive fashion. I know history doesn’t count when it comes to this game, but in three of the Cats’ past six finals they have been kept goalless in three opening quarters and from those disastrous starts they have been unable to get back into the contest. Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly and Joel Selwood, as leaders and fierce competitors, must set the standard from the first bounce. It’s time for them to be aggressive in mind and body.
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THE CHALLENGE
The Cats must control the Magpies’ forward line. The Magpies have a lot of explosive players in their forward half. They have great synergy and work hard for each other to manufacture space. Over the past month the Pies have ranked No.2 in the competition for scoring once inside the forward 50. They have also taken the most marks inside the forward 50, so there’s a lot for the Cats to contend with.
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IF I WAS GEELONG …
I’d resist the temptation to throw Mark Blicavs into the ruck. He must play full-back and be the anchor. I don’t care who he’s matched up against in the Pies’ forward line. It could be any of them, but playing Blicavs out of the goal square against one of the Magpies’ forwards is crucial. The Magpies possess a lot of forward weapons, but Blicavs has proven time and time again that he is hard to beat one-on-one. Scotty, my advice would be to resist the temptation of putting him in the ruck and to let him be the defensive pillar.
COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY
Collingwood must win the midfield — it’s as simple as that. Does Chris Scott tag Brodie Grundy, like he did back in Round 1? I’d think so, but Grundy must get one back here. Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Jordan De Goey all need to have big games to master Dangerfield, Kelly, Mitch Duncan, Selwood and Brandan Parfitt. Whoever wins this battle will decide this game. And as I’m predicting a low scoring game, territory will be critical.
THE THEME
The Magpies need to get speed on the game. I don’t want Collingwood falling for the trap of trying to play its short kicking/marking style of game against the Cats. That would play into the Cats’ hands by allowing their stay-at-home defenders to get set. With fast ball movement, they won’t allow their defenders to do that. Collingwood’s dynamic forwards all will be the beneficiary of fast ball movement. If the Pies need more evidence, consider this. When Brisbane played on 39 per cent of the time in the second half against Geelong back in Round 22, they won that half by three goals. Please play quick, Pies.
THE CHALLENGE
Collingwood’s biggest challenge in beating the Cats is to control the ground ball in the defensive 50 against the likes of Gary Ablett, Luke Dahlhaus, Dangerfield, Gryan Miers and Tom Atkins. The Cats are clearly the No. 1 ground ball team in their forward 50 in the league. Collingwood’s defenders, take notice. If you decide to leave the ground to enter a marking contest, you must look to mark the ball. If it hits the deck, there is danger all around you.
IF I WAS COLLINGWOOD …
Levi Greenwood must go to Ablett. I think this has been the plan in waiting and now we get to see it come to fruition. The message to Greenwood has to be to play a strong defensive, aggressive, in-Ablett’s-face mindset game. Ablett ranks No. 1 for score assists amongst the league’s small forwards and No. 3 for score involvements. He’s also third in the competition for ground ball gets. Allow him to be unchecked in the Cats’ forward 50 at your own peril, Collingwood. Gaz will run amok if you do.
MATCH ODDS
Geelong $1.75 Collingwood $2.10
FLAG ODDS
Geelong $2.25 Collingwood $2.50
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 8 points
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