Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the qualifying final between Brisbane and Richmond

Lachie Neale had the ball on a string last time the Lions played Richmond. But he isn’t the man the Tigers need to look at tagging, according to AFL great Mick McGuane.

What did the Lions learn from their loss to Richmond? Picture: Getty Images

We know Brisbane is a very strong stoppage team and on the back of that also a very strong territory team that loves the game played in its half of the ground.

It is ranked No. 1 for scores from forward half chains and second for time in forward-half differentials.

The Lions’ greatest asset is to score heavily from a stoppage, where they’re ranked No. 1 in the AFL. And the Gabba (10-1 this season) has been a fortress for them in 2019.

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Richmond, meanwhile, wants a chaos game. It’s all about surge footy for the Tigers. They will continually move the ball forward. For example, this year they have recorded a handball metres gained differential of plus 385 metres, ranking them No. 1 in the AFL, clearly in front of the second best in North Melbourne (+96).

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BRISBANE LIONS

THE KEY

The key for Brisbane is the start. If Round 23 is any indication, you cannot allow Richmond to gain the ascendancy like it did from the start. By game’s end Brisbane had done a lot right by winning the inside-50s by three, the clearances (+16), centre clearances (+six) and contested ball (+14). Its ball movement direction was too safe with too much emphasis on the boundary and its inability to win crucial one on ones in its forward 50 hurt them. So please — more corridor bravery with the ball, roles at stoppage structures must change and forwards must compete stronger for longer.

Hugh McCluggage will be a key for the Lions against Richmond. Picture: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

The Lions must rectify the wrongs of Round 23. Minus 17 ground balls in their own forward 50 won’t cut it in the heat of finals. That cannot happen again. From a stoppage structural standpoint they need to bring in their wingers Mitch Robinson or Hugh McCluggage to even up the numbers forward of the ball. This doesn’t allow Richmond’s wingers to be first back into Brisbane’s forward 50 to outnumber. Also, it will disrupt the Tigers’ defensive set up (wanting a goalkeeper). This will equalise numbers and give the Lions greater opportunities to win one on ones in their forward 50. It’s an area they failed miserably in last time. If they don’t do that, it helps Richmond’s ability to intercept and their offence will kick-start from there. This is crucial.

THE THEME

Seize the opportunity and accept the challenge. It is their first final since 2009 and it’s at home. Brisbane has lost its past 13 matches to Richmond since 2009 by an average of 42 points. But this is a very different Brisbane team. Ball security is also crucial. The Lions just can’t blast their way into the forward 50 and hope for the best. They must take away the intercept strength of the likes of Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes, Nathan Broad and Bachar Houli. They must think their way through and execute well. Look early, look late, and be aware of Richmond’s defenders positioning.

PART 1: FOUR MINUTES OF GRAND FINAL MAYHEM

PART 2: HOW DERMOTT SPARKED 89 GF CARNAGE

PART 3: THE FOOTY FREAK FROM BOGGY CREEK

IF I WAS BRISBANE …

I’d resist the temptation to playing Cam Rayner as an on-baller. When Kane Lambert rolls up to be an extra midfielder, it will give superstar Dustin Martin the creative licence to drift forward and hurt the Lions. I just don’t think Rayner is fit enough, nor do I think he reacts quickly enough in that split second of time to defend. I don’t believe he is ready just yet for big midfield minutes. He struggles to influence the game defensively and Brisbane just can’t afford that. Also I think Chris Fagan should put Darcy Gardiner onto Jack Riewoldt, as it will free up Marcus Adams to intercept.

RICHMOND

THE KEY

Continue to stay the course. Their game is in a very healthy condition right now after winning their past nine games since the bye. As we know, the Tigers thrive on a high turnover game that is also built on pressure and good defensive structure. As a consequence, they rank No. 2 in the AFL for intercepts, but more importantly they are No. 1 for scores from intercepts. Richmond took 16 intercept marks in its defensive half in Round 23 against Brisbane and scored 5.4 from its defensive half intercepts. Give the ball back to them and you will pay a big price.

Shane Edwards and Daniel Rioli celebrate a goal against Brisbane. Picture: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

They must limit Brisbane’s stoppage game. This is Richmond’s biggest concern. The clearance count was 48-32 in Brisbane’s favour in Round 23, although the Tigers got up on that occasion at the MCG. If Richmond allows Brisbane to win the clearances by 16 or more in this game, the scoreboard could be considerably different this time. One thing I do know is Brisbane will restructure around stoppages in an attempt to take away Richmond’s strong intercept game.

THE THEME

For Richmond, it should focus on recapturing its forward half game. In Round 23, the Lions were effective in closing down this facet of the Tigers’ game. The Tigers created only 18 forward half turnovers and scored only 19 points from these turnovers. That is well down on their season averages. Therefore, the mosquito fleet of Jason Castagna, Daniel Rioli, Kane Lambert and Shai Bolton all must bring their highest pressure game to generate forward half turnovers. That will be a strong theme for them.

Lachie Neale had the ball on a string against Richmond. Picture: Getty Images

IF I WAS RICHMOND …

A lot has been said about Lachie Neale’s 51 possession game in Round 23. Does Damien Hardwick allow this to happen again? Well, if you can still win while allowing the opposition’s best mid to get those numbers, then why change? It’s the system that works so I don’t think Hardwick will tag. There’s an argument that Dayne Zorko is the key. Can you allow Zorko 718 metres gained, nine inside 50s, six score involvements and two goals from nearly half those possessions of Neale to run rampant again? The question is who gets that run-with role? I’d go with Jack Graham as plan B (plan A is the system), and he must remain goal side of Zorko at all times.

LIONS MEDICAL ROOM

Allen Christensen (hamstring) test

Tom Joyce (shin) 2 weeks

TIGERS MEDICAL ROOM

Toby Nankervis (adductor) test

Sydney Stack (ankle) TBC

Alex Rance (knee) season

MATCH ODDS

Lions $2.25 Tigers $1.65

FLAG ODDS

Lions $7 Tigers $3

PREDICTION

Lions by 5 points