Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the preliminary final between Collingwood and GWS
Scott Pendlebury is a big reason why Collingwood is the AFL’s leading disposal team and will be GWS tagger Matt de Boer’s next target. Mick McGuane reveals where the preliminary final will be won and lost.
Expert Opinion
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Collingwood loves getting its hands on the ball — and keeping it.
The Magpies rank No. 1 for disposals this season and No. 1 for uncontested possessions.
They have also introduced a short kicking and marking game, ranking fourth for short kicks and second for marks.
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This greater control of the ball than last year has given them greater protection from turnovers.
The Giants rely on scoring from stoppages more than any other team.
They rank third for contested possessions and second for clearances and are efficient once they get the ball inside 50.
COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY
The Pies need to ensure the ball comes to ground in the forward line. The Giants won the intercept marks 22-8 against Brisbane. Phil Davis and Nick Haynes rank first and third in the AFL for intercept marks this year. As the main target, Brody Mihocek has to create a contest to let the Pies’ smalls get to work at ground level. If they don’t get the midfield-forward connection right, they’ll play into the hands of the Giants.
THE CHALLENGE
The midfield match up, which is going to be a massive battle within the war. GWS ranks third in both contested possessions and hard ball gets and rely heavily on scoring from stoppages. They have grunt on the inside through Tim Tarranto, Jacob Hopper and Matt de Boer. Magpies on-ballers Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and Scott Pendlebury need to match them in that area.
THE THEME
Play with speed. I think that’s when the Magpies play their best football. It complements their natural instinctive forwards in Jamie Elliott, Jayden Stephenson and Will Hoskin-Elliott. Even Brody Mihocek benefits. You can’t afford to let Phil Davis and Nick Haynes get set in defence for the Giants. Keep the game up tempo when the opportunities present.
IF I WAS COLLINGWOOD …
I’d be heavily rotating Jaidyn Stephenson, Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin-Elliott close to goal on Heath Shaw, who likes to take the deepest opposition forward. Make him accountable, throw different combinations at him and beat him with speed. At the other end, who goes to Jeremy Cameron, Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg? You have to get that right.
If Toby Greene gets off at a tribunal hearing, he becomes the key focus as the Giants’ barometer. I’d be sending Brayden Maynard to him when he plays forward, but back the midfield system when he pushes up the ground.
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GWS
THE KEY
The Giants must make sure they use the ball well going inside 50m. If not, Jeremy Howe and Darcy Moore are going to pick it off, as they did in the qualifying final against Geelong. The Giants have been good at making the most of their inside-50 entries this year, but the Pies have the best defence going around.
THE CHALLENGE
To kick a winning score. It’s as simple as that. The Magpies haven’t had more than 10 goals kicked against them in any of their past five games, conceding scores of 51, 53, 48, 65 and 51. The Pies’ defensive pressure is great, the pressure at the source of the opposition ball carrier is elite and they are starving the opposition forwards. If you want to rely on kicking 50 points in a preliminary final, good luck.
THE THEME
No regrets. This will be the Giants’ third preliminary final and they are yet to take the next step. The more often you get to the last four, the better experienced you should be in knowing what it takes to get to the big dance. Effort is non-negotiable. This is their chance.
IF I WERE GWS …
I’d send Matt de Boer straight to Scott Pendlebury. De Boer did a fantastic job again on Brisbane’s Lachie Neale on Saturday night, holding him to less than 20 disposals for the first time this year. The Magpies have a deep midfield, but if you can limit Pendlebury’s time and space, it will go a long way to winning as he is their best ball user.
It will limit Nathan Buckley’s options, too. He could send Pendles to halfback to try and break the tag, but probably wouldn’t want him forward. Mr September, Steele Sidebottom, must also be stopped. I’d be looking to put Sam Reid on him, not dissimilar to what the Giants did against Western Bulldogs wingman Lachie Hunter.
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 14
INJURIES
COLLINGWOOD
Jordan De Goey (hamstring) 1 week
Dayne Beams (shoulder/hip) season
Mason Cox (eye) season
Levi Greenwood (knee) season
Lynden Dunn (knee) season
Tom Langdon (knee) season
GWS
Stephen Coniglio (knee) test
Brett Deledio (calf) 1 week
Jonathon Patton (knee) season
Callan Ward (knee) season