Matthew Lloyd says Carlton will struggle to win games in 2017

CARLTON’S list and the Blues’ pre-season form raise serious concerns about how far this once great club has fallen, writes MATTHEW LLOYD.

I DON’T want to be so glass half-empty just six days out from Carlton’s season-opener against Richmond at the MCG, but sugar-coating doesn’t help anyone.

When you look at Carlton’s list and the form we have seen from the Blues in the JLT series, I would be really concerned if I was AFL boss Gillon McLachlan at just how far this once great club has fallen.

And how ugly the scoreboard may become for the Blues on a regular basis in 2017.

Of all Carlton’s senior listed players, I believe only seven would be good enough to get a game in a top-eight side.

Those players are Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps, Kade Simpson, Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering and, if he was fully fit, Matthew Kreuzer.

That’s not to say things can’t change as this season unfolds, but at the end of the 2016 season, Champion Data rated just five Carlton players elite or above average across all the key areas that make a player impact games. The most notable measure was how damaging a player is by hand and foot.

That was in stark contrast to the reigning premiers, the Western Bulldogs, who had 19 players rated above average or better by season’s end.

That’s 19 to five. This disparity is what would worry me most as a Carlton supporter.

Dale Thomas has failed to fire since moving to Carlton. Picture: Mark Calleja

The question being asked by supporters is: Are we rebuilding from the ground up like we should be or are we doing a half-baked job of it?

I would say the latter.

There are too many players on the Carlton list who have been acquired from other clubs who just aren’t good enough.

Carlton has 15 senior-listed players who have made their way to Carlton via trades or free agency and a 16th in former Fremantle player Alex Silvagni, who joined the club via the rookie draft.

Former Brisbane Lion Sam Docherty has been a star for his new club, winning last year’s best-and-fairest, while ex-Crow and delisted free agent Matthew Wright looks more than just a capable AFL player after his first season at Carlton.

That is where the positives end.

Players such as Dale Thomas, Liam Jones, Kristian Jaksch, Jed Lamb and Daniel Gorringe have been major disappointments since arriving at Royal Pde.

The recruitment of Rhys Palmer from GWS and Billie Smedts from Geelong after last season is bewildering while list manager Steve Silvagni’s obsession with GWS fringe players in Lachie Plowman, Jarrod Pickett, Liam Sumner and Andrew Phillips will come under major scrutiny if they don’t get a 150-game player out of any of them.

The argument will be made that to make as many list changes as Carlton has over the past few years, they couldn’t just recruit kids through the draft.

Which is true but most of the 16 players recruited to the club had not been good enough to establish themselves at their original homes, so to have a third of a list made of these players is a risky strategy.

Silvagni recruited Plowman to the Giants at pick No. 3 in the 2012 national draft and Caleb Marchbank to GWS at pick No. 6 in the 2014 draft.

SOS has got them to Carlton cheaply but they need to deliver like top-10 draft picks this season to allow Weitering to ply his trade in the forward line where they desperately need him.

Former Giant Caleb Marchbank showed promising signs in the JLT Series. Picture: Michael Klein

Without Weitering forward, it’s hard to see how Carlton can possibly kick a winning score.

In reality though, Weitering is a 19-year-old who has 20 games and two goals beside his name, so if he could kick more than 35 goals it would be a successful season individually, but may not win Carlton too many games.

It’s hard to see Brendon Bolton bettering the seven wins he achieved in his first season at the helm.

Chief executive Steven Trigg used the word patience during the week, which suggests the Blues know full well that this is going to be one very long year.

Success at Carlton has to be about winning some games to keep the members happy but more important than that is developing some players at Carlton outside of Cripps and Weitering who could be capable of being All-Australian players over the next five years.

Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, David Cunningham, Jack Silvagni and Sam Petrevski-Seton are the future of the club and just have to be played.

Charlie Curnow needs to get more AFL games under his belt.

Tough decisions will need to be made at the selection table on the likes of Thomas, Sam Rowe, Levi Casboult, Simon White and Dennis Armfield on a week-to-week basis.

If Carlton is to be in a stronger position than it is right now in 12 months’ time, those experienced players cannot be played in front of the kids.

This will quite possibly come at the expense of an extra win or two but it will be worth it to ensure they can unearth some new fresh talent just as Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood have given so much hope over the past 12 months to long-suffering fans of the Brisbane Lions.

Make what you will of the JLT Series form but Carlton ranked 18th of 18 in the two most important stats — points for and against. The Blues averaged 58 points a game across its three matches while conceding 114 points down the other end of the ground.

If Carlton does not apply relentless pressure on the opposition just as it did for that bright six-week period last year, it’s hard to see where a win comes from in 2017 unless the midfield of Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs has a day out.

TWEAK 16

Carlton’s recycled players and their Champion Data rankings

Sam Docherty ELITE (trade)

Matthew Wright ABOVE AVE (delisted free agent)

Rhys Palmer BELOW AVE (trade)

Liam Jones BELOW AVE (trade)

Lachie Plowman BELOW AVE (trade)

Liam Sumner BELOW AVE (trade)

Dale Thomas BELOW AVE (restricted free agent)

Andrew Phillips BELOW AVE (trade)

Jed Lamb POOR (trade)

Sam Kerridge POOR (trade)

Kristian Jaksch UNCLASSIFIED (trade)

Alex Silvagni* UNCLASSIFIED (rookie draft)

Caleb Marchbank UNCLASSIFIED (trade)

Daniel Gorringe UNCLASSIFIED (delisted free agent)

Billie Smedts UNCLASSIFIED (trade)

Jarrod Pickett UNCLASSIFIED (trade)

*Rookie list

Note: Players rated by Champion Data against all other players in their position across the AFL. Players receive a rating after playing a minimum of 10 matches over the past two seasons. All other players are unclassified.