Too much is read into the AFL fixture and who plays who when, Mark Robinson writes
Angry about your club’s fixture? Think others have been given a leg up? How would you know how 2020 is going to pan out? Footy fans should worry about more important things than analysing the fixture, Mark Robinson writes.
Mark Robinson
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A club chief executive on Friday described the AFL fixture as “overrated’’.
It’s important, but in early November, he can’t understand why there’s so much conjecture about who’s playing who in Round 15, how many six-day breaks there are, who’s travelling and where, who plays the 2019 finalists once and who plays the Gold Coast twice.
At least that last one is a point of discussion.
In an increasingly level playing field, the one main advantage is playing the Suns twice.
Gold Coast will improve but Melbourne, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane and Port Adelaide, who play the Suns twice next year, will be enthusiastic about their opportunity.
Not that anything is a given.
Remember, the Suns beat the Bulldogs in Round 3 this year.
The point is the fixture is dissected — as it is every year — to within an inch of it’s life when no one really knows how much the fixture will impact.
Geelong coach Chris Scott this year said that, of course, it mattered who you played, but equally as important, if not more, was when you played them.
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Like, playing an injury-beset Richmond in Rounds 11-13 this year — when the Tigers lost to North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide.
When the injured players returned, the Tigers went on a 12-game winning streak.
Injuries. Momentum. Form. Suspensions. Confidence. Attitude. Internal bickering.
They all play a role in the formation of and mindset of a team, no matter if you’re in the top four or scavenging for a win in 12th spot.
In essence, there’s simply too much to consider what could possibly happen then to determine who’s got the advantage now.
Like, if Patrick Cripps does a hamstring in Round 4.
Carlton’s matches against Hawthorn (Round 5), North Melbourne (Round 6), Port Adelaide (Round 7) and St Kilda (Round 8) would take on an entirely different narrative.
Like, if Joe Daniher doesn’t overcome his groin issues.
What happens to the Bombers then?
The upshot is that looking ahead is unhealthy and foolhardy.
The chief executive mentioned above says he took the first fixture draft from the AFL to his senior coach so “they could go through it’’.
“He didn’t care at all,’’ the CEO said.
“He said, we have to play everyone and we’ll try to beat them as they come, so no point looking at it now.
“It really is overrated. It’s based on this year’s results, so it’s a vision of the future based on the past.
“And anything can happen in the future.’’
Take last year’s offering.
Brisbane was a projected lower to middle-of-the-road team and Melbourne a top-four contender.
If you had the Lions twice you were wary but quietly confident.
If you had Melbourne twice, you had a challenge.
But their seasons could not have been any different than what was forecast.
The Lions played in a preliminary final and Melbourne finished 17th.
The commercialisation of the fixture is a different element.
CEOs will leave football to the footy folk and instead pore over the projected economics.
Brisbane is the case in point.
They had one game free-to-air last year and the other 21 on Fox Footy.
Channel 7 would have hated it and Fox was loving it because the Lions were both exciting and successful.
Next year, the Lions have 10 free-to-air games, including two blockbusters on Thursday nights and two on Friday nights.
The numbers might be rubbery, but there is about 1.1 million people watching on a Friday night, 700,000 on a Saturday night and 450,000 on a Sunday.
A sponsor wants eye balls.
If Brisbane this year had five million watch their games and, say, Collingwood had 15 million people watch their games, it’s obvious a sponsor would look at the bigger market.
“When we talk to sponsors, they want to know how many eyeballs are watching,’’ the CEO said.
A marquee game also attracts a bigger crowd, meaning a $150K profit at the gate for a regular game can balloon to $600K profit for a marquee game.
I respect Champion Data enormously, but can’t comprehend the company’s annual listing of who has the toughest draw and who has the easiest.
Maybe I’m not digging deep enough.
Maybe the variables which play out every season — injuries, form, attitude, internal rumblings etc — just can’t be ignored.
What is clear is the annual debate about the fixture is mind-numbingly boring.
It is an 18-team competition played out in 23 weeks — so it’s really a box of licorice allsorts.
And money drives it, anyhow.
Look at Carlton’s first two rounds — it plays Richmond and Collingwood.
No doubt, the AFL wants to get off to a financial flyer.
The fact is clubs will privately whinge and moan, but it means nothing because they can’t do anything about it.
It’s like an occasional umpire’s decision. You scratch your head, but you have to live with it and move on.
Melbourne in the heat of Perth Round 1? Bad luck. Prepare for it.
Collingwood draws the Suns at the end of a gruelling season? Lucky Pies.
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Geelong gets three home games in Rounds 19-21? Make the most of it.
Richmond gets the ‘G again? It is what it is.
In the past 36 hours, fans have inundated the comments section of heraldsun.com.au with complaints — their belief being they have been dudded while other teams have been given a leg up, especially when the discussion is about which teams play the 2019 finalists and how many times.
They should park their angst because they, like us, don’t know how next year will play out.
A coach won’t ever complain, mind you.
Their mantra is we’ll play anyone, anywhere at any time, and that’s exactly what the fixture presents to them.