Jon Ralph assesses which club will win out of the megatrade
WHICH club has come out on top from the megadeal that set the trade period alight on the final day? JON RALPH takes a look at how each club will be affected and who will get the biggest sugar rush.
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IF West Coast and Carlton fans are still squabbling over the Judd-Kennedy deal of 2007, picking the long-term winner of a five-club mega-deal is a thankless task.
But as the dust settles on a dramatic trade period it is easy to see who gets the biggest sugar rush from the deal finally concluded on Wednesday after much gnashing of teeth.
The deal eventually sent Jesse Hogan, Lachie Neale, Rory Lobb, Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij to their preferred locations.
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So who wins straight away?
Ross Lyon, Max Gawn and Melbourne’s premiership chances.
We finally got an answer about why Hogan wanted out, his manager Matt Bain saying he had detailed the “trauma” of the past two years to Melbourne as he asked for a trade.
Melbourne will hope that even if he turns into a 700-goal forward by the time he turns 30, they will have won the premiership that justifies this deal well before then.
Max Gawn might have been the best player of the 2018 season, but he spent the second half of it also effectively playing as a defender.
That’s how good he was, playing the old-fashioned kick-behind-play role because of the Demons’ defensive deficiencies.
By the time Jake Lever gets back up to speed after an ACL recovery, he and Steven May could by year’s end be as good as any defensive duo in the competition.
May plays tight but also rebounds effectively, Lever gets to play the intercept defender, Sam Frost will still try to find a role, Michael Hibberd does his thing, Jordan Lewis organises the troops, Nev Jetta plays lock-down, and maybe Jayden Hunt can get back to his line breaking best.
On potential it’s as good a defence as you will see.
And amid all of it Gawn can play a more attacking ruck role after kicking 13 goals for the year but only six in the last 16 games.
And those premiership hopes?
If Sam Weideman stands up, or at least if Tom McDonald stays fit and they keep Jake Melksham in form, the forward line should be potent enough to kick goals.
For all of Fremantle’s bluff and bulldust, they were always losing Lachie Neale to Fremantle.
All they could do was make the best of it and bring in the key position players and ruck back up they have looked for since Matthew Pavlich departed.
Fremantle fans won’t give two hoots that they had to give up pick five and a secondary selection in five years when Jesse Hogan is winning the Coleman Medal and Rory Lobb playing first ruck.
They will also forget that new footy boss Peter Bell’s bluff and at one stage decision to withdraw from the Hogan trade was largely pointless.
Ross Lyon knows he is under the pump, the 133-point loss to Geelong late Round 22 positive proof.
Despite an eight-win year with a rebuilding side and plenty of positive signs from the emerging midfield kids, Lyon was savaged by the media that day for an admittedly insipid performance.
He actually gets some building blocks to show all those critics again what kind of coach he can be, even if the midfield looks a little thin with Lachie Neale gone.
Does Hogan play a bit of centre half back at times like Pavlich before him, does Sandilands play bear-in-the-square with Lobb rucking, where does he use Michael Walters?
Is the midfield good enough with Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw emerging that Nathan Fyfe can strut forward to create a mis-match.
So Ross Lyon might save his bacon, Melbourne will hope they can win a flag, and just maybe Gawn will get the Brownlow that eluded him this year.
So how does the megatrade affect the key players?
BRISBANE
Lachie Neale is still underrated for a player who has won two of the past three best-and-fairests and finished second in the other one.
If Brisbane loses Beams they are still extremely bullish about their midfield stocks.
Neale is a born clearance player who will farm the ball out to the likes of Dayne Zorko, Hugh McCluggage, Dan Rich and Lewis Taylor.
They are referencing Adelaide when they lost Patrick Dangerfield — the Crows played off in a Grand Final the next year — believing there are always players ready to step up in a star’s absence to fill the vacuum.
McCluggage is ready to take the next step after two solid years, Charlie Cameron might have to play a bit more wing at times, Jarrod Berry looks a beauty.
No one can adequately cover the loss of Beams, but at least they have the talented kids who will try.
MELBOURNE
Steven May immediately slots in as the Demons full-back of choice, a player criticised because of perceptions about his desire and inconsistency.
But Champion Data rates him one of the premier defenders in the competition because of his capacity to lock down and then get going in the attacking game, racking up big disposals for a full back and using the ball well.
Hogan kicked 47 goals, but six Demons kicked 19 or more which is a great spread.
In that losing semi-final as a white-hot Tom McDonald went behind the ball early to stem the flow, you still could see where Hogan would have been so important as a secondary target.
But McDonald kicked 53 goals, Melksham 32, Alex Neil-Bullen 27, Mitch Hannan 22, and Petracca 19.
The obvious expectation is that Petracca should be a 40-goal forward, with the door wide open for Sam Weideman to play 20-plus games.
We might only know in the finals whether Hogan is really missed.
FREMANTLE
Hogan as the full forward.
Rory Lobb playing 60-40 ruck and forward.
Michael Walters at his slippery best roving to the feet of Hogan.
Brennan Cox given the third-best defender after 18 goals last year and some breakout moments.
David Mundy using all his nous to conjure matchwinning moments as a clever forward.
Nathan Fyfe strutting down to centre-half forward if the midfield is firing without him to create havoc with a mismatch.
And players like Cam McCarthy and Matt Taberner having to bust a gut just to get into this team, not be handed games on potential or because no one else is around.
Fremantle’s forward line could be legitimately exciting, and it’s a long time since we have been able to say that.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
We might only find out if the GWS salary dump is successful in 12 months time if they can re-sign the likes of Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio.
But right now all they can do is trade away talent and hope they have kids underneath immediately ready to step up.
So over to you Jacob Hopper, Aiden Bonar and Tim Taranto, who clearly have enough talent to go to the next level.
The ruck situation can be alleviated if Dawson Simpson keeps up the rage and Shane Mumford plays 15-plus games.
But Scully offered something unique — the best two way runner in the competition who not only papered over the midfield cracks but kicked goals.
He kicked a brilliant 23 of them in 2016 and 15 in 2017.
It’s hard to find another player capable of that kind of effort, and while they played finals without him, they still fell well short with a semi-final defeat.
GOLD COAST
They will lose not only May, but two other top-10 selections in Kolodjashnij and Jack Scrimshaw.
No point getting too excited about their likely draft hand — 2, 3 and 6 (after a trade with Port Adelalde) when they pick the wrong blokes, don’t develop them and then lose them for nothing.
They finally have good people in place, have to quickly build an elite culture, then have to back themselves in.
Recruit the most talented kids in Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankin, then back yourself to be the kind of club in two years time where they want to stay.
There is no other choice, is there?
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