David King analyses Dreamtime at the ‘G and who Essendon can take down the reigning premiers

AFTER a horror start to the season Essendon has found its groove over the last two weeks with upset wins over Geelong and GWS. But on Saturday night they face the reigning premiers and their finals campaign is on the line. Are they good enough?

Essendon captain Dyson Heppell. Picture: Michael Klein

IT’S crunch time for the Essendon Football Club.

A finals campaign seemed a pipedream a fortnight ago but wins over Geelong and Greater Western Sydney have the door slightly ajar now the reigning premiers stand in the way.

The Bombers post Round 8 are a different beast than the dysfunctional and selfish version that wasted the first two months of the season. If Richmond underestimates Essendon, it will pay a price.

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John Worsfold stood defiant, would not accept external views and shouldered the load as the senior coach must, but behind the scenes Dyson Heppell demanded more from the club’s leaders and most importantly, himself.

It’s no coincidence Heppell has played his toughest football since that pow-wow with his teammates. Season-high contested-possession games of 16 (Cats) and 14 (Giants) and a career-high 12-clearances last week stamped his “follow me” rather than “listen to me” adjustment.

It’s dramatic shift from apportioning blame to taking responsibility. No more of Brendon Goddard’s futile finger pointing but a team-first “do your job” mentality.

Dyson Heppell handballs out of the pack against Geelong.

Heppell has become the captain Essendon hoped and the leadership of David Zaharakis cannot be understated.

Heppell’s legacy as captain has elevated significantly over past month but Trent Cotchin is the poster boy for AFL leadership. Who will have a bigger influence on Saturday night?

Essendon can defeat the Tigers. I repeat, Essendon can defeat Richmond despite the disparate ladder positions - 12th v 2nd.

The Bombers’ pressure game has become a feature of their alterations, highlighted by Mark Baguley’s shift from defence to attack which has ensured a tackle and harassment level unseen among “The Walking Dead” Bomber forwards who allowed clean passage for the opposition on counter-attack across the first two months of the season.

A spike in forward-half tackles from an average 29 tackles per match from Rounds 1-8, to 41 over the past fortnight highlights the shift in focus and intent. It’s not he volume of total tackles, but the location in terms of field position that’s critical.

The Tigers’ forward-handball game poses the perfect challenge for the pressuring Bombers — an opportunity that will again be driven by Devon Smith who’s the league’s best pressure player. What an outstanding off-season acquisition, but he needs others to continue to subscribe.

Dylan Shiel is harassed by Devon Smith.

Essendon is the first team to have three successive games with a Champion Data pressure rating in excess of 200. The AFL pressure rating average is approximately 180 which is exactly the rating the Bombers had for the first seven rounds.

The Tigers thrive on chaos, under constant confrontational pressure and continual turnover, therefore the challenge is there for the Bombers to embrace but make no mistake, this game will be decided without possession of the football.

Richmond is an average clearance team. It has been outscored by its opposition despite the star factor and threat of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Kane Lambert at clearances.

The territory advantage from winning clearances must be Essendon’s. Tom Bellchambers’ connection with Heppell and a reinvigorated Zach Merrett is crucial.

Over the past three weeks the Toby Nankervis tap to Martin has happened only six times, ranked just inside the AFL’s top 30 combinations.

Bellchambers to Zaharakis (12 times), to Heppell (eight times) and to Smith (six times) illuminates a ruck-to-rover advantage for the Dons. Let alone when Shaun Grigg goes into the ruck.

Bellchambers had 19 hitouts to advantage against the Giants. Expect the same.

The Bombers must “catch and kill their own”, as Ross Lyon would say. If finals mean anything to this midfield core then a brutal approach must be evident.

Jake Stringer looks to break out of the pack.

Shock victories need individual wildcard performances. Think Shaun McKernan’s three-goal first quarter against Geelong. Jake Stringer is in good form and is quietly going about his business in a team-first fashion with nine score involvements last weekend both in the midfield and forward.

Stringer’s 100th game celebration may just be the perfect forum. It’s the stuff dreams are made of.

Essendon is a different team with Orazio Fantasia in the line-up. The Bombers have won seven of their last 11 games when Fantasia is in the side, with 18 goals from him in that period.

Fantasia is the class in the Bombers’ forward half and I’m expecting a big performance after three games back from injury.

Defeating Martin is a difficult task. Which way will Worsfold lean?

Trust Adam Saad again or leave Saad to play unrestricted as per the past 2-3 weeks?

Is Andrew McGrath physically capable at this early stage and do you want him on the last ine of defence?

I wonder if Goddard would put his hand up for one of the biggest challenges in the game? What a statement that would make to the Essendon playing group.

Would Goddard sacrifice himself for the team gain? Physically there’s no issue, mentally it would be a shift to play a negating role, but Goddard is more than capable.

Is he willing?

If it’s good enough for Scott Pendlebury to tag Patrick Cripps then why not Goddard?

Let’s wait and see how creative and daring Worsfold and his coaches are on Saturday night.

Richmond has won the last six confrontations against the Bombers, but this would be the most significant.

Essendon’s 2018 finals campaign is on the line. Win this and it can dare to dream. Essendon by less than a goal and Heppell to take home the boomerang.

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