AFL coaching great Mick Malthouse looks at where all the contenders will finish in 2018

WE’VE reached the business end of the season. Is your club a contender or a pretender? MICK MALTHOUSE runs his eye over all the remaining teams and gives his ultimate top eight, top four and flag chances.

Are the Tigers vulnerable during the finals? Picture: AAP Images

WE’VE reached the business end of the season.

With three rounds left after today, should-wins and unscheduled losses will decide the final eight.

And this year it’s going to take 13 wins to claim a spot.

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THEY’RE OUT

ESSENDON may have left its run too late — between Rounds 5-8, the Bombers lost four games to some very handy teams, and Carlton.

This may have ended their finals campaign before it really started.

The Bombers’ recent wins have only proven to me that their speed could have caused untold damage in September, given the chance, much like the Western Bulldogs in 2016.

Adelaide won’t play finals this year.

Its campaign has been interrupted by the loss of key personnel for long periods of the season, and it still hasn’t recovered from the losses of Charlie Cameron and Jake Lever.

Last year Sydney lost its first six games and then unbelievably played off in the finals.

Will the Swans be watching on during finals this year? Picture: Getty Images

But the Swans would need a miracle to get 13 wins, with three tough games to finish — Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn.

The Swans’ fall from grace was inevitable.

Yes, they rallied last year, but it was “same old, same old” — get the ball out of the centre through Josh Kennedy, handball to Luke Parker or Dan Hannebery and kick the ball to within the vicinity of Lance Franklin.

That system is broken.

It may well take years to recover because of its reliance on older players — Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh, Hannebery, Heath Grundy and Franklin — who are now, unfortunately, past their best.

John Longmire has been outstanding, but for the first time in his reign, he may have to view the finals from over the fence.

I have Melbourne, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne all finishing with 13 wins.

Two will make it and one will not.

Has 2018 been a waste if the Power miss the finals? Picture: AAP Images

Melbourne has a far superior percentage, so it will come down to who can win and win well.

Fourth-placed Port has a real fight on its hands with a tough draw — West Coast, Collingwood and Essendon — so the Demons and Kangaroos will make it, and Port Adelaide will not.

THEY’RE IN

THIS year has been a marvellous turnaround for North Melbourne, which many thought would finish in the bottom four.

It has been consistent all year, and boasts Coleman Medal leader Ben Brown and a possible Brownlow medallist in Shaun Higgins.

This should see the Kangaroos win their remaining games against the Bulldogs, Adelaide and St Kilda.

Hawthorn has an “easy” draw from here, it has form and finals experience, so it should easily fit into the eight.

So, too, should Geelong, with a fit and in-form forward line.

It is possibly irrelevant who finishes higher out of the Cats and the Hawks, because both get a home elimination final, which is a bonus for all four clubs (from fifth to eighth) not having to travel in the first week.

Melbourne’s two losses on the siren to Geelong will haunt it.

Those two extra wins, on top of the 13 I see it achieving, would have thrust it into the top four.

Melbourne will likely miss out on a top four spot. Picture: AAP Images

The Demons should beat Gold Coast, but then they will have a fight on their hands for two more wins from Sydney, West Coast and GWS.

Melbourne went into the last round of 2017 as favourites to beat Collingwood, but lost and missed out.

In Round 23 this year it may well be the same situation when they face the Giants.

TOP FOUR

THREE of the top four have most likely already been settled — Richmond, West Coast and Collingwood.

GWS, after today against Carlton, will need two wins from its last three games to finish fourth.

The Blues won’t be easy, but it’s a must win for the Giants or all of their hard work since Round 11 (seven wins from eight games) will be undone.

They’ve done the work without the likes of Jeremy Cameron (who returns on Sunday from a five-week ban) and Jonathon Patton (who was injured in Round 15) and it seems to have improved the team’s resolve and toughness, which is a good thing going into a finals series.

The West Coast Eagles and to a lesser extent, Collingwood, have also defied the punters’ expectations, with many having the Eagles out of the top eight and the Magpies just in or just out.

Both teams have suffered injuries but have been able to overcome them with some outstanding victories.

West Coast taking on Fremantle in Sunday’s derby takes on new significance, with a top-two finish at stake.

The big “if” about West Coast and Collingwood is how will they replace their injured stars in the finals?

Nic Naitanui completely changes the dynamics of the Eagles’ team, so there isn’t a single fix.

It will take a lot of support in the middle for new ruck duo Scott Lycett and Nathan Vardy.

It is harder to cover for the loss of key mids than it is to cover for the loss of key backs.

The Magpies have lost defenders Lynden Dunn and Matthew Scharenberg, but with a midfield boasting all but Adam Treloar (who could return from injury soon) they can get by in finals without them.

They are helped with the likely return of Ben Reid, and the continued improvement of Darcy Moore when he has had a couple of extra games under his belt for confidence.

Richmond, after a dream run with injuries last year, is just starting to fray at the edges.

It hasn’t diminished in appetite or high-pressure output, but the gap is closing, as evidenced in its hard-fought win over Collingwood, which made a few at Punt Road nervous.

THE CUP

THE top three teams and GWS are the standouts and, I think, are the only clubs who can win the premiership.

Of the second four, Geelong and Melbourne have the next best chance because they are each brilliant on their day and can dismantle any of the top four teams.

But they are not consistent and both have an overuse syndrome, which against high-pressure teams, in high-pressure situations, results in turnovers.

Hawthorn has looked good, but it has had a soft draw.

It would take an extraordinary effort to win the flag from here.

And I don’t think North is good enough, yet, to go all the way.

The most vulnerable of the top four is West Coast.

How much will Nic Naitanui’s injury hurt the Eagles? Picture: Getty Images

But if it can finish with the advantage of two home finals — where they should beat any opponent — it will have a direct passage into the Grand Final.

We saw a complete capitulation against eventual premiers Hawthorn in 2015, though the Eagles’ most recent venture to the MCG resulted in a magnificent win over Collingwood, which should give them confidence.

GWS has recent finals experience, but its destiny depends on how much it has hardened up since its two preliminary final defeats.

It has matured as a team, for sure, but has it learnt its lesson?

Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy and a midfield led by Scott Pendlebury is as good as it gets, running deep with class.

And no other club has the medium to small scoring power as the Magpies, led by Jordan DeGoey.

Their only vulnerability is in the back half, where, as we saw with Richmond, the opposition can hurt them.

I think it’s too easy to say Richmond is a shoo-in to win back-to-back premierships.

It won’t be long before the lack of a second genuine ruckman will come back to haunt it.

The Tigers have been quite reliant on a strong, last-quarter finish to get over the line against top-line opponents.

It only takes one day not to have that resilience and the game can get away from you.

Given that, I do think the Tigers have enough hunger, and the team effort is strong enough to win another Cup.

MICK’S TOP EIGHT

1 Richmond

2 West Coast

3 Collingwood

4 GWS

5 Hawthorn

6 Geelong

7 Melbourne

8 North Melbourne

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