David King: North Melbourne needs some big individual displays against Sydney in preliminary final
IT’S Mission: Impossible for North Melbourne — at least that’s what most say. But the Roos have always fought against the odds.
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IT’S Mission: Impossible for North Melbourne. The Kangaroos are pointlessly preparing to engage with a star-studded Sydney led by Lance Franklin.
At least that’s what most people in the footy world will say.
But don’t be so sure, because the Kangaroos have always fought against the odds.
Thriving on a mindset of “us versus the world”, North Melbourne has made a habit of playing with a greater attitude and effort than its rivals. Given the talent of the Swans, a superior effort is an absolute minimum requirement at ANZ Stadium tonight.
North Melbourne may need an individual performance for the ages.
In 1999, Carlton took on an all-conquering Essendon that was supposed to breeze through to premiership glory. But the Bombers were denied by Anthony Koutoufides.
“Kouta” was unstoppable: 29 possessions, 16 of them contested; 12 marks, seven of which were contested; and two goals in the final quarter. The Blues fell over the line by one point.
It remains the most significant influence by one man on one game in my lifetime.
Do the Kangaroos have a Koutoufides?
Why can’t Drew Petrie take Ted Richards or Heath Grundy to the cleaners? Is it beyond the realms of possibility to think Petrie could take eight marks inside 50m and convert like he has in recent weeks?
Petrie must improve his one-on-one success rate drastically because he’s out-marked his opponent only once in his past 12 opportunities. If that pattern continues, it will be Mad Monday for the Kangaroos in three days.
But Drew has found a way. He’s a scrapper, he loves to compete and he’s following up at ground level. He has kicked six goals in the past two weeks. He’s capable.
North Melbourne has artillery to throw at the Swans in what will be a stoppage game. The reliance on first use and quality ruck work will again be a point of difference. Todd Goldstein is in super form and gives this new-look, multi-faceted Kangaroos midfield first look.
Since Round 12, North ranks fourth in hit-outs to advantage, averaging +3 on their rivals. On the flip side, the Swans’ past two weeks have been disastrous, with -10 and -14 hit-outs to advantage.
At their most recent meeting, the Kangaroos kicked seven goals to two from stoppages — a huge discrepancy and the Swans’ poorest result apart from a Round 1 debacle against Greater Western Sydney.
Last week Nick Dal Santo had 22 kicks, but his 13 handballs that put his teammates into space while he absorbed attention was the single reason the Kangaroos had success. Dal Santo’s composure is understated and his Mark Waugh-like minimum effort and graceful movement doesn’t appeal to all. But don’t underestimate his work rate and leadership. If the Kangaroos can use Dal Santo’s poise and unique awareness in high-traffic areas, then Goldstein’s ruck advantage can hit the scoreboard.
When these sides met in Round 4, Ben Cunnington was a wrecking ball and announced himself to the football world with 30 possessions, 20 of which were contested, and 11 clearances. If that wasn’t enough, he laid 10 tackles.
Cunnington will have to lead the Kangaroos’ ground ball assault on the Swans tonight. Like Dal Santo, his 15 handballs last week were more valuable than his seven kicks and this must be repeated.
The small full-forward option has caused issues for the Swans because they can find it difficult to orchestrate match-ups. Dane Rampe and Nick Smith will have their hands full with Lindsay Thomas and Aaron Black, so an opportunity arises when Jack Ziebell and/or Cunnington move to the goal square.
Brent Harvey could be an option coach Brad Scott might try for the first time. Why not? Lightning quick, great agility and clearly the Kangaroos’ best finisher. The Swans lack a small, negating goal square option as Rhyce Shaw, Nick Malceski and Jarrad McVeigh don’t play last-line defence.
The main asset Scott and his lieutenants bring consistently is the defensive unit’s ability to absorb opposition entries inside 50m. North is the only top-eight team to concede more than 50 inside-50s a game, yet it has the fifth best defence.
North Melbourne has a bit of Sydney about it. Absorb, deny and then counter-attack at speed into a vacant forward half. We labelled it “slingshot football”, which undersells the ability to remain defensively intact. Hence Scott’s desire for an extra man in the back half. He knows it works.
Seven versus six is better than six one-on-ones. This support will be required as Franklin has won nine of his past 13 one-on-ones, but Scott Thomson and Michael Firrito lost to Franklin only twice in six one-on-ones in Round 4 — one covering the dangerous space in front and one behind.
If history is any guide, this defensive strategy is Franklin’s kryptonite.
The Swans have greater aerial presence in the forward line and all the height advantage, but if the Kangaroos can deny marks and bring the ball to ground it’s off to the races. North is the best ground ball-get in the defensive 50m in the competition. It’s the likes of Thompson, Dal Santo and Firrito who sweep back and ignite counter-attack.
If the Swans aren’t patient entering their forward line or defensively organised enough to stifle the Kangaroos’ run and carry out of defence, they’ll find themselves with Grand Final week free.
Looking forward to seeing who the Kangaroos’ Kouta is tonight? If you can’t find him, then the Swans have been too good.
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