Chris Cavanagh compares the Bombers’ two seasons under Brad Scott

Essendon have fallen away badly in Brad Scott’s first two seasons at the helm. So has anything improved on last year? What’s gone backwards? CHRIS CAVANAGH has the analysis.

Essendon great Matthew Lloyd suggested on radio back in February that fans would “tear Windy Hill down” if the Bombers didn’t qualify for finals this year.

“How long do they have to wait for?” Lloyd asked.

It’s a fair question as the club prepares to close out what will go down as a 20th successive season without a September victory.

Talk about a curse that won’t go away.

The Bombers won’t play finals this year. Picture: Getty Images

Essendon coach Brad Scott was asked multiple times this week about how his side was placed compared to the same time 12 months ago.

The ladder, at least, paints a very similar picture.

So too does the record across the second half of the year.

Entering a final-round clash against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba next Saturday night, the Bombers hold a 3-8 record from their past 11 games.

They went 3-7 from their final 10 matches last season.

“Four weeks ago is ancient history, really,” Scott said after Friday night’s 39-point loss to Sydney.

“The foundation of what we’re doing is really solid. We were incapable of competing against the best when it mattered last year, if you want the comparison.

“It’s a bit of polish, a bit of system, a bit of class that is the difference between us and the best. It’s not the effort in the contest.”

Improving the contest work was a key area of focus over pre-season after Scott identified it as a major problem last year.

In that area, at least, progress has been made.

The magnets were moved, with Darcy Parish’s onball minutes dropping in favour of the likes of Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell, who were injected inside to add some greater grunt.

Essendon has lifted its ranking in contested possession differential from 13th to eighth and has gone from 13th to ninth in clearance differential.

Against the Swans on Friday night, the Bombers finished +20 in the contested possession count and only lost clearances by one after leading 19-15 at halftime.

Essendon’s contest work has improved. Picture: Getty Images

Scott’s side has also become better at both scoring from stoppages itself and defending stoppage losses.

However, outside of the contest, what else has improved?

The recruitment of free agent Ben McKay last October was meant to provide a big boost for the backline, but Essendon’s defensive profile is arguably no better.

The Bombers’ lack of “polish” around the ground is still playing into the hands of opposition sides who are having no trouble scoring on turnover.

Essendon hasn’t been able to consistently slow down opposition ball movement, either, and is consequently the competition’s worst side when it comes to defensive one-on-one contests.

Offensively, there’s a bit of Melbourne’s ‘bomb the ball in and hope for the best’ mentality about the boys from Tullamarine with their inability to convert territory wins into scores.

In the first half against the Swans, the Bombers logged 37 inside-50 entries for a return of just 4.5 (29).

The Bombers aren’t changing the angles going inside, aren’t lowering their eyes often enough and aren’t hitting targets by foot when there are leading forwards with space on their opponents.

There’s work to be done with Essendon’s forward line. Picture: Getty Images

After 22 games, Jake Stringer and Kyle Langford (40 goals each) are still the only players to have kicked 20 or more goals this season, while there is a glaring lack of smalls ready to pounce when the ball hits the ground.

“It’s unfair just to say it’s personnel,” Scott said.

“You haphazardly kick it in and hope someone marks it.

“It’s been an issue for too long. So it’s a clear focus area for us to get right.”

Individually, there have been some positives across the course of the season, including the rise of players like Durham and Nic Martin on the back of positional moves.

Last year’s draftees Nate Caddy and Archie Roberts are also showing plenty of promise.

But too many other young players haven’t been able to take the steps forward that were expected of them this season and it’s a worry.

It is going to be another big summer at Tullamarine.

The big question is: Will the wheel finally turn in 2025?

Or will more of the same be dished up to the long-suffering fans?