Champion Data rates the top 30 draft prospects with a shock at No.1 edging out Cameron Rayner
CHAMPION Data has named its top 30 draft prospects — and there’s a good chance at least one will slip through to a very late pick. Who could your club get?
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CHAMPION Data, the AFL’s statistics guru, has come up with some surprising selections as it ranks its top 30 picks in this year’s draft.
While a lot of smaller players have starred in junior ranks, a question mark hangs over whether they will be taken early in next Friday’s national draft and, in many cases, the Herald Sun’s draft expert Sam Landsberger is not confident they will.
SCROLL DOWN REPLAY THE LIVE Q&A WITH THE CHAMPION DATA EXPERTS
Last year Champion Data, which keeps stats on hundreds of junior games every year starting at under-16 level, ranked Jack Graham at No.22 on its power rankings. He fell to No.53 in the draft where he was snapped up Richmond and went on to play a key role in a premiership.
Which juniors have impressed the Champion scouts this year?
1. JACK HIGGINS (Oakleigh Chargers)
178cm forward
Averaged 145 SuperCoach points in 33 junior games, pipping Tom Rockliff. Consistently ranks elite for disposals, contested possessions and score involvements.
SAM SAYS: Huge shock at No.1. Likely to be 11-20, perhaps to GWS or West Coast. If the decorated and dedicated footy tragic was 10cm taller and a touch quicker, he’d be in No.1 mix.
2. CAMERON RAYNER (Western Jets)
187cm half-forward
Kicked 49 goals from 27 matches covered by Champion Data and oozes X-factor. Led the national championships goalkicking with 12 for Vic Metro.
SAM SAYS: Favourite to join the Lions at No.1 as a goalkicker who can swing a match. Think Dustin Martin with a question mark — can Rayner build a fitness tank?
3. JAIDYN STEPHENSON (Eastern Ranges)
189cm midfielder/forward
Exploded with Vic Metro, averaging 27 disposals, 11 contested possessions, a goal and 132 SuperCoach points. Topped that off with 22 disposals and three goals in the AFL Grand Final curtain-raiser.
SAM SAYS: Heart condition has clubs including St Kilda and Fremantle scrambling for last-minute cardiology reports, but a freakish line-breaking talent with strong endurance.
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4. ANDREW BRAYSHAW (Sandringham Dragons)
183cm midfielder
Mr Consistent, winning more than 20 disposals and 100 SuperCoach points in all 10 TAC Cup matches. Ranked No.1 in TAC Cup for score assists and kicked eight goals himself.
SAM SAYS: Best kid in the draft looks a future AFL captain. Led Haileybury to school flag with clean hands and has ties to Kangas, where uncle James was president. Freo a big fan. Lions coach Chris Fagan would be happy with him at No.1.
5. LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE (Dandenong Stingrays)
187cm midfielder
Disposal efficiency ranked No.1 of all players to average more than 10 contested possessions. Above average contested and clearance player.
SAM SAYS: Should go top three. Keen surfer from Rye wouldn’t mind Perth beaches (Fremantle) and Mum has a house in Brisbane. Speed and power away from stoppages have him No.1 at multiple clubs.
6. PADDY DOW (Bendigo Pioneers)
184cm midfielder
Ranked top five for contested possessions and clearances at the national carnival and hit scoreboard with three goals and five assists.
SAM SAYS: Unlikely to go No.1 but could be Carlton’s man at No.3. Swan Hill boy managed a challenging travel schedule and is recovering from a shoulder reco. Similar to “LDU” but a touch less class by foot.
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7. ADAM CERRA (Eastern Ranges)
186cm midfielder
Injuries in past two years the question mark. A ball winner who can go forward, ranking elite in disposals, contested possessions, goals and score involvements in 2017 TAC Cup.
SAM SAYS: Classy inside-outside midfielder who Eastern reckons would be the No.1 pick if not for injuries. In mix at most early selections and unlikely to get past St Kilda at No.7 or 8.
8. LACHLAN FOGARTY (Western Jets)
179cm inside midfielder/forward
Fantastic pressure numbers and scoreboard impact suggest he’s an ideal small forward. Highest ranked TAC Cup player, averaging 145 SuperCoach points and 9.7 tackles.
SAM SAYS: Defensive mindset and ferocious tackling straight out of Richmond’s premiership playbook. Lions could pair him with close mate Rayner in the first round to help them settle. Dogs lurking with pick No.16.
9. DYLAN MOORE (Eastern Ranges)
175cm midfielder
Average of 130 SuperCoach points, No.7 in the TAC Cup. Ranked elite in contested possessions, ground-ball gets and goals. Averaged 114 SuperCoach points for Vic Metro, named All-Australian.
SAM SAYS: Brilliant runner with a great work ethic, but the little fella won’t go in the first round and perhaps not even the second. Think premiership Tiger Kane Lambert.
10. OSCAR ALLEN (West Perth)
191cm key forward
Ranked in the top two key forwards at the national championships for disposals, marks, contested marks and score involvements. His 11 goals second only to Cam Rayner.
SAM SAYS: Will be a lead-up third tall at AFL level and likely to be considered by GWS at No.11 and Sydney at No.14. Won the Larke Medal as the best player at the championships.
11. AARON NAUGHTON (Peel Thunder)
194cm key defender
Won most disposals and SuperCoach points for key defenders at the championships and ranked second for intercept possessions and intercept marks.
SAM SAYS: Fremantle, Collingwood and St Kilda have shown interest and if he slips past them he’s likely to be a Western Bulldog at No.9. Played seven senior WAFL games as a left-footed modern defender and intercept star.
12. HUNTER CLARK (Dandenong Stingrays)
186cm inside midfielder
Averaged 129 SuperCoach points when playing midfield, ranking elite for disposals, contested possessions and clearances and above average for uncontested possessions, goals, assists, score involvements and tackles.
SAM SAYS: St Kilda will consider at No.7 or 8 and Adelaide would love him to reach No.12. Won Stingrays’ best-and-fairest by a record margin from only 12 games. Blue-chip pick and great kick on both feet.
13. CHARLIE CONSTABLE (Sandringham Dragons)
190cm inside midfielder
Big-game player. Home-and-away SuperCoach average of 109 rose to 120 in finals, topped yet again by 121 at national carnival where he averaged second-most disposals (26).
SAM SAYS: Not a great runner and lacks zip, but a natural footballer. Great size, but the question marks could push him into the 20s.
14. NICK COFFIELD (Northern Knights)
190cm half-back
Knights captain ranked in top 100 TAC Cup players for clearances, uncontested possessions, intercept marks and goals. Genuine utility.
SAM SAYS: Is Coffield one who could slip out of the top 10? Looks best suited to half-back, where he can play tall, small and boasts quick acceleration.
15. BRENT DANIELS (Bendigo Pioneers)
172cm small forward
TAC Cup average of 112 SuperCoach points was impressive considering an even midfield-forward split. Won 49 per cent of his possessions contested in 14 Champion Data games this year.
SAM SAYS: Geelong Grammar boy. Another short player high on Champion Data’s list. Has a knack of just getting the job done and looks a third-round pick.
16. JORDAN HOULAHAN (Sturt)
185cm forward
Kicked 91 goals in 52 Champion Data games in past three years. Marking forward but has won more than 18 disposals only once.
SAM SAYS: Quiet kid who plays with pizzazz. Good mark and could be trialled in defence, Jeremy Howe-style. Probably a late second-round selection.
17. SAM HAYES (Eastern Ranges)
203cm key forward/ruckman
Top-ranked ruckman in TAC Cup. His 16 disposals ranks elite, along with contested possessions, uncontested possessions, marks, hit-outs to advantage, clearances and score involvements.
SAM SAYS: Dual All-Australian with long arms will require patience. Low endurance means he’s more key forward than a ruckman. Once thought a top-five pick but could float into the second round.
18. OSCAR CLAVARINO (Dandenong Stingrays)
195cm key defender
The No.1 player for intercept possessions and marks in the TAC Cup and national carnival. Took 40 intercept marks in 12 matches this year.
SAM SAYS: Loves challenge of playing on No.1 forward and reads the play like a picture book. Expect him to go between picks 20-40.
19. GYRAN MIERS (Geelong Falcons)
177cm small forward
Big-game performer who booted seven goals in TAC Cup grand final and 50 for season, six more than any other player in the TAC Cup.
SAM SAYS: Dreadlocked kid with uncanny goal sense. Who needs a small forward with a later pick? Maybe GWS to replace Devon Smith?
20. HARRISON PETTY (Norwood)
194cm key defender
South Australia’s best player at national carnival. A rock in defence and won more one-on-one contests than any other player, losing only 14.2 per cent of the time.
SAM SAYS: Boy from the bush blossomed after a shift to the backline. Was barely on draft radar 12 months ago but could charge into the top 30. Has spoken to every club except Brisbane.
21. DARCY FOGARTY (Glenelg)
192cm forward
Reputation built on glimpses rather than volume. In 2016 he played mainly as a forward and kicked four goals against the Allies in his best game.
SAM SAYS: Favoured to go No.1 at start of year before slipping with injures. Powerful and a sharp kick, is still in the top-10 mix with the Kangas, Pies, Dogs and Blues.
22. JOEL GARNER (Eastern Ranges)
183cm defender
Won more than 20 disposals in only four of 38 matches covered by Champion Data, but is a general in defence. Had 29 intercept possessions in the championships, ranked No.2.
SAM SAYS: Left-footed indigenous talent who captained the AIS, Vic Metro and Eastern Ranges this year. Attends Scotch College and will be considered in the 20s and 30s.
23. BRAYDEN CROSSLEY (Gold Coast academy/Labrador)
198cm ruckman
Led the national championships for hit-outs and was the No.1 ruckman for contested possessions and clearances.
SAM SAYS: Aggressive and performed well after battling glandular fever over summer. But rucks very rarely go early and Crossley looks a third-rounder.
24. SAM TAYLOR (Swan Districts)
196cm key defender
Played at all three WAFL levels, including seven senior and eight colts games. Ranked No.1 for intercept marks and possessions in the colts, also averaging 19 disposals.
SAM SAYS: Will be strong enough to man the gorilla spearheads one day. Good closing speed and All-Australian honours. Will appeal as a pick from the 20s on.
25. STEFAN GIRO (Norwood)
175cm midfielder
Averaged more than 99 SuperCoach points in the SANFL under-18s and the SANFL reserves in 2016, 2017 and at this year’s national carnival.
SAM SAYS: Impressive form in the SANFL reserves and runs both ways, but a huge surprise he’s here. Late pick or could still be available in the rookie draft.
26. CHARLIE SPARGO (Murray Bushrangers)
173cm small forward
In the 2015 under-16 championships he averaged 29 disposals, 2.5 goals and 219 SuperCoach points, winning the Alan McLean Medal as the best division two player.
SAM SAYS: Rarely sighted since 2015 and shoulder surgery ruined this year. But clever and tenacious little forward in Boomer Harvey mould. Former GWS academy. Father Paul played 81 games for North.
27. NOAH BALTA (Calder Cannons)
194cm utility
Played ruck and key forward in TAC Cup and key defender for Vic Metro. Only TAC Cup player to rank in top 70 for intercept marks, hit-outs and goals.
SAM SAYS: Where does he play at AFL level? Enjoyed some freakish patches and looks a second-round pick.
28. JAKE PATMORE (Claremont)
181cm midfielder
Best ball winner in WAFL colts, averaging 29.3 disposals and rating elite for both contested and uncontested possessions. Won second-most possessions of any Western Australian at the championships.
SAM SAYS: Ball magnet who shed 10kg in two months this year to begin climbing up the draft order. Accumulator who could fall in the second round.
29. BRAYDEN AINSWORTH (Subiaco)
184cm inside midfielder
Won more clearances than any other player and ranked second for contested possessions at national carnival.
SAM SAYS: Moved 700km from Esperance to Perth to take footy more seriously. Dedicated stoppage player and All-Australian looks a later pick. Turns 19 this month.
30. ANDREW McPHERSON (Woodville-West Torrens)
186cm halfback
Underage numbers suggest he could be an Alex Witherden-type steal. In 2016 SANFL under-18s he averaged 27 disposals and 132 SuperCoach points as a half-back flanker.
SAM SAYS: Quad and hamstring injuries ruined the rebounding runner’s year. Unreliable body likely to push him into the third round. Carlton might consider at No.30
NOTABLE OUTS
First-round prospects who didn’t make Champion Data’s cut
Aiden Bonar
Nathan Murphy
Jarrod Brander
Lochie O’Brien
Patrick Naish
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