Carlton off-season outlook: Can the Blues play finals in 2021?
He came to Carlton on big money from Adelaide but Mitch McGovern hasn’t delivered for the Blues. What is his future in the best 22?
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The days of having a developing young list are over at Carlton. It is time for the Blues to deliver on their talent.
Do they have what it takes to play finals in 2021?
Rebecca Williams looks at the good and bad from last season and what it will take for the club to take a big step this year.
CARLTON
INS: Zac Williams (Greater Western Sydney), Adam Saad (Essendon), Lachie Fogarty (Geelong), Corey Durdin (pick 37), Jack Carroll (pick 41), Luke Parks (rookie draft)
OUTS: Matthew Kreuzer (retired), Kade Simpson (retired), Ben Silvagni (delisted), Darcy Lang (delisted), Hugh Goddard (not retained), Finbar O’Dwyer (delisted), Harrison Macreadie (delisted), Callum Moore (not retained), Fraser Phillips (not retained), Cameron Polson (delisted).
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COACH STATUS:
Entering his second full-time year as senior coach, the pressure will be on David Teague to finally lift the Blues back into the top-eight for the first time since 2013.
Teague steered the Blues to seven wins and an 11th-place finish in 2020 — the team’s best result in seven years.
But there won’t be any excuses in 2021, especially after a big trade period in which the Blues snagged two major fish.
GAME PLAN:
The Blues will look to play more of a slingshot style from halfback with Saad the new attacking playmaker.
Williams will add grunt, but also run and carry from either halfback, or through the midfield, which has been a problem for the Blues.
Carlton was a strong contested possession side – with a competition ranking of five for contested possession differential – but finding run on the outside was an issue.
Once forward of centre, the Blues will look to get the ball as quickly as possible to their key talls where it is hoped Charlie Curnow can recover from his luckless run with knee injury to play a key role.
Carlton scaled things back and kept things simple across 2020.
The midfield group improved significantly which allowed them to generate territory off the back of this.
Their style was sustainable, playing a forward half game but accuracy and inefficiency cost them. They finished with their highest ladder position since 2013. Their next step is to put this all together in 2021 and push towards finals.
TRADE TABLE REPORT:
The Blues made no secret of their desire to lure Williams and Saad to the club during the trade period and they succeeded in landing both.
Former GWS Giant and free agent Williams, 26, joins the Blues on a six-year deal after nominating the club as his preferred destination at the end of the home-and-away season.
Wanting to add speed and versatility to their list, the Blues said Williams delivered both.
Carlton secured former Bomber Saad in a trade that lands them an attacking rebound-defender, but he also has the ability to play shutdown roles.
The Blues also secured Lachie Fogarty from the Cats.
THEIR 2020 DRAFT HAUL:
After doing the bulk of their off-season work at the trade table, Carlton had just two selections in the national draft.
The Blues recruited for needs with their first pick — small forward Corey Durdin (at pick No. 37 overall) — and added to their midfield depth with their second-round pick, Jack Carroll.
The WAFL colts mid-forward, taken at pick No. 41, was described as an “absolute steal” by AFL recruiting official Mick Ablett.
PLAYERS THEY CAN REINVENT:
Having struggled up forward, Mitch McGovern, who kicked nine goals for the season, was sent into defence late in the season, having played some of his best football there during his time with Adelaide.
If Charlie Curnow can make a successful return from injury, the forward line may be too crowded, leaving McGovern to fight for a spot in defensive 50.
How the Blues continue to use Cripps will be a fascinating watch.
Clubs are desperate to try an emulate Richmond and use their key midfielder as an attacking weapon.
Geelong tried it with success with Patrick Dangerfield and Fremantle used Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe as a forward often during 2020.
Regardless, the Blues must shake the side’s reliance on Cripps as a stand-alone mid.
READY TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP:
Where do you start? The Blues need high draft picks Paddy Dow and Lochie O’Brien to play consistent senior football.
Dow was the No. 3 draft pick in 2017 but managed only three senior matches this year, prompting Blues great Greg Williams to declare he needed to toughen up.
O’Brien, a former No. 10 pick who emerged this year as a trade target, has managed only 36 matches in three seasons, including just one this year. He has a year remaining on his contract.
Charlie Curnow is a potential superstar – if he can overcome his knee problems. It doesn’t end there.
Sam Petrevski-Seton has had ample time to graduate from his apprenticeship and must become a consistent ball-winner.
Harry McKay shows glimpses of becoming a star key forward, and Tom De Koning looks to have oodles of potential.
Consistency is the key. If these mid-range Blues find it, the club rockets into the top eight.
BEST 22 FOR NEXT SEASON:
FB: Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
HB: Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering, Adam Saad
C: Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow, Sam Walsh
HF: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Jack Newnes
FF: Zac Fisher, Harry McKay, Eddie Betts
FOLL: Tom De Koning, Patrick Cripps, Zac Williams
IC: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Mitch McGovern, Will Setterfield, Levi Casboult
CHAMPION DATA SAYS
Good: Carlton’s front half game improved significantly, ranked fourth for both time in forward half differential and forward half turnovers created.
Bad: Efficiency dropped off to finish the season. From Rounds 12-18, they generated the fourth-most inside 50s but ranked 17th for goals per inside 50 and 18th for shot at goal accuracy.
FINISH THE LAST FIVE YEARS: 2016: 14th (seven wins), 2017: 16th (six wins), 2018: 18th (two wins), 2019: 16th (seven wins), 2020: 11th (seven wins)
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $34 Top four: $6 Top-eight: $2.50
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