Cap Space: Jay Clark looks at Carlton’s list, Tom De Koning’s future, the cap squeeze and more
Carlton faces a huge challenge to thwart St Kilda and Essendon’s interest in young star Tom De Koning. But the Blues have an ace up their sleeve.
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Carlton supremo Luke Sayers had a couple of important questions for Alastair Clarkson.
The Blues had just flicked their coach, David Teague, on the back of a 21-29 record over three seasons, leaving the club’s seemingly never-ending rebuild stuck in the mud.
So when Sayers picked up the phone to the greatest coach of the modern era, the Blues were keen to see if Clarkson was interested in the job.
But when the Hawks’ mastermind said he was instead headed overseas in 2022, Sayers didn’t miss an opportunity to pick Clarkson’s brain on the Blues’ list.
After years of amassing top draft picks (nine top-15 selections since Patrick Cripps in 2013), questions were being asked outside the club whether it was the most overrated list in the game after another failed year.
Sam Petrevski-Seton (pick six) was traded to West Coast for peanuts and the Blues gave up pick four as part of the famous live pick swap for Liam Stocker, who was delisted last year after 28 games.
And they had splashed the cash on Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin, Zac Williams and Adam Cerra.
But the Carlton president would have liked what he heard from Clarkson.
The list wasn’t the problem. In fact, it was enormously talented.
With the right system and discipline, a change of attitude around defence, and a few more small personnel additions, the Blues might not be far away from a top-four shot.
Sensing an opportunity in the crisis late in 2021, Sayers sought an experienced coach in Michael Voss, gave licence to bring in a new batch of assistants and backed in a game plan and cultural overhaul, in the hope the club could soon break its 27-year premiership drought.
And after adding another outside runner to the midfield in Blake Acres following last year’s ninth-straight finals miss, it is clear the Carlton giant was finally ready to awaken.
Clearly, they have the cattle to catapult into the top-four in 2023.
The only unknowns are whether the players believe it themselves and can reverse the club’s dreaded run of injuries which cruelled the Blues last year after an 8-2 start.
The high performance department is under a huge spotlight.
But in the same way Collingwood extraordinarily jumped from 17th to third last year, and Melbourne went from ninth to premier in 2021, Carlton has the list to leapfrog from ninth to a couple of finals wins this season.
CONTRACT CRUNCH
It will be the most-talked about salary cap squeeze in the game.
The Blues are full to the brim after re-signing their superstar forwards Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, jet midfielders Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, leaving it with a huge challenge to thwart St Kilda and Essendon’s interest in young star ruck-forward Tom De Koning.
Essendon, in particular, has more than $2 million cap space to launch a huge bid for De Koning to help partner Peter Wright and Sam Draper.
Likewise, new Saints’ list manager Stephen Silvagni has big plans for the Saints after plucking De Koning at pick 30 five years ago.
The Saints list is a mess and De Koning could form one of the most exciting combinations in the competition next to Max King, if they can’t tempt his brother, Ben, from Gold Coast.
It makes the 203cm De Koning one of the most sought-after uncontracted players in the game, even if the consistent on-field performances aren’t there yet.
But the ace up the Carlton sleeve on De Koning is the prospect of premiership success.
Why would the young gun leave when, after a decade of pain, the club is finally in a position to seriously contend for silverware?
The Blues appear a long way ahead of the Saints and Bombers in the premiership planning and we should see that materialise on-field this season.
The slight headache for the Blues is De Koning’s preferred position.
In the ruck he will job share with Marc Pittonet, and in attack he is the third banana behind Curnow and McKay this year.
His preference is a 70 (ruck) 30 (forward) split.
Generally-speaking, $650,000-plus is good coin for a man who averaged 11 disposals and 16 hit-outs in his fourth season.
But we know the trajectory he is on. De Koning has superstar qualities. It has been seen in his brother, Sam, at Geelong.
Carlton said they want to start talks in a bid to snap up an early extension, but De Koning wants to play some footy first before discussions get serious.
If he fires, the price will rise.
To create some cap room, the Blues will have to make some moves to the list.
Best-case scenario is Martin and McGovern and potentially Williams accept reduced deals in the same manner former Blue and Magpie superstar Dale Thomas recently admitted he handed back a significant chunk of his $800,000 a-year deal at Ikon Park late in the contract after crossing from Collingwood.
That is easier to do for McGovern, who is out for contract this year and will likely receive a deal worth about half of what he is currently on.
Already there is a thought he could join his brother, Jeremy, from West Coast, at a new club next year, if there is already writing on the wall.
Williams also has three more years on his contract after this one, while Martin’s $3-million-deal was heavily front-ended including a $1 million first season.
The most dramatic outcome is that one of them is forced to depart, but that could depend on McGovern’s fitness and conditioning and any offers from elsewhere.
He rocked up out of shape and has struggled with his durability in his time at Carlton, missing the bulk of last year with a hamstring problem.
It is make-or-break for his career in 2023.
Collingwood made a big call to trade-out superstar ruckman Brodie Grundy and Adam Treloar to realign the cap, but Carlton’s cap situation is not as dire.
Martin is yet to deliver to his full potential, and also needs to build his fitness, and line breaking defender Williams is out for the year again due to a torn ACL.
Carlton paid overs to land Williams initially as a midfielder, but he is one of the most over-inflated bang-for-buck pay packets in the game.
If the Carlton list management crew have scope to do some pruning, McGovern, Martin and Williams will top the to-do list.
Fringe midfielder Paddy Dow could again look for a fresh opportunity elsewhere at season’s end, but he is not on big money, anyway.
Carlton chief executive Brian Cook was pragmatic about the cap crunch, saying sacrifice would help breed success.
Why would De Koning leave if he will be a key prong in a team on the verge of some long-awaited success?
At Geelong, players took less as part of the flattest pay structure in the competition, allowing the club to help keep the list together.
And the reality is the best teams all have full salary caps.
“This is a challenge, isn’t it? Let’s be honest about that. But it’s very doable,” Cook said.
“You just have to manage it as best you can and when you need to make a tough decision, you do.
“That would be the aim. That we become so good that the players want to stay with us, and they self-regulate a little bit.”
JACKPOT DRAFT
In draft terms, Geelong, Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans have stolen the show over the past two decades.
There’s the Hawks’ famous haul in 2004 in when they nabbed Jarryd Roughead (pick two), Lance Franklin (pick five) and Jordan Lewis (pick seven) which will be hard to beat.
Then the Cats shot the lights out (excluding father-sons) nabbing Paul Chapman (pick 31), Ling (38) and Corey Enright (47) in 1999.
But Carlton may have also landed a generational trio under former list boss Silvagni in 2015 snaring Weitering (pick one), McKay (10), and Curnow (12).
Then, to a lesser extent, they added David Cuningham (23) and Jack Silvagni (53) with their next picks.
The Weitering-McKay-Curnow triumvirate might be the most envious triple-blow of the past decade, excluding the draft concessions generously handed to the franchise clubs.
Weitering was a no-brainer, McKay overcame questions about his hardness and Curnow was charged with drink-driving in the build-up to the draft, but the Blues did not blink.
In 2019, Silvagni was dumped as list boss as the club believed his two sons’ positions on the list compromised his position.
Silvagni, a Carlton legend, said he was hurt by the way it played out.
Since then, the Blues under list chief Nick Austin and recruiting boss Mick Agresta have tried to strike gold later down the order and would be excited with Jesse Motlop (27) and Ollie Hollands (11). Hollands has been so impressive in his first pre-season he is in the mix for a shock round 1 berth to help add some outside run.
Voss wanted more outside legspeed on the back of a drop-off in ball movement late last year and draftees Hollands and Lachie Cowan will add some significant running power.
LIST COMPOSITION
As much as the Blues drafted in the key cornerstones of its predicted round 1 team, the reality is Carlton has traded in almost half the side.
It was a strategic move to build the depth Carlton didn’t have after a wipe-out in the 2014 draft and failed trades with Greater Western Sydney in 2015 and 2016.
In total, 10 players in the likely season-opening side have come via trades or free agency, including five of the starting six defenders and the bulk of the midfield.
That is Nic Newman (Sydney Swans), McGovern (Adelaide), Sam Docherty (Brisbane), Lewis Young (Western Bulldogs) and Adam Saad (Essendon) from the back line and Adam Cerra (Fremantle), George Hewett (Sydney Swans), Matthew Kennedy (GWS), Blake Acres (Fremantle) and Marc Pittonet (Hawthorn) in the middle.
Austin’s moves for Saad, an All-Australian last year, and hard nut Hewett as a restricted free agent, were both brilliant additions, helping take the list forward from the Teague era.
A-GRADERS
There are seven of them.
Curnow, McKay, Cripps, Walsh (when he returns), Saad and Weitering are all superstars and Docherty missed last year’s All-Australian team by a whisker.
Hewett, Cerra, Kennedy and McGovern (when fit) are on the next level, Acres is a ready-made running machine to add to the wing, and they have the most in-demand tall in the game in De Koning.
Clearly, goals won’t be a problem from the two keys considering their marking power inside-50m.
Where the Blues need improvement is in the durability at the back end where they would love full seasons from Weitering, McGovern and Young as the pillars, plus Lachie Plowman and Caleb Marchbank and Sam Durdin in support.
They cut Stocker who perhaps could have stepped straight up for Williams when he went down with a season-ending knee injury last month.
Encouragingly, the Blues still had the sixth-best defence (conceded 100 points only once in 2022) despite losing Weitering and McGovern for big chunks of the season.
They play a territory game, the Blues, who love to beat up their opposition around the stoppage, and defend as a unit.
There was huge improvement under Voss in 2022 after another poor 2021 under Teague.
On the fringes of selection, there is no shortage of developing top-end talent considering Paddy Dow (pick three), Lachie O’Brien (pick 10), first-year winger Oliver Hollands (pick 11), Brodie Kemp (pick 17) and Sam Philp (pick 20), who is out with a serious foot injury, were all taken early.
Hollands could play sooner than expected based on his practice match form and Voss’s desire to inject more run on the wings.
It was a pressing issue even before last year’s trade period and after losing Williams and Walsh (for the first month or two of the season) only heightens the concerns about outside leg speed, making Acres, O’Brien and Hollands even more important.
THE GROWTH
If there are some big improvers this year, it’s in the small forward stakes.
Carlton made a big play for Swan Tom Papley who was denied his trade request, but have yet to secure an ace livewire goal kicker.
Martin arrived on a whopping front-ended deal as a mid-sized goal kicker, but has not polled a single Brownlow Medal vote in each of his past two seasons.
He is yet to build the tank to go in the midfield, which is why the Blues have opted to inject Docherty, rather than Martin, into the onball mix.
But in attack, after Curnow (64 majors) and McKay (45), the next best goal kickers last year were Cripps (20) and Zac Fisher (18).
The slippery Fisher has speed, but Motlop (pick 27) and Cuningham (despite a fresh shoulder injury) are the ones to watch.
Matthew Owies, Josh Honey and Corey Durdin are important worker bees and – along with Ed Curnow, who was perhaps surprisingly kept on the list ahead of Stocker – can turn up the forward half pressure and provide an opportunistic edge at ground level.
But if there is one who makes the big jump this year, there are high hopes it will be the clever goal kicker Motlop.
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