Brownlow Medal 2018: No snooze fest on the cards this year, it’s the most open race in years

ONE thing is certain about the 2018 Brownlow Medal, it won’t be the snooze fest of recent years, in fact it’s fast looking like being the most intriguing count in a long time. Glenn McFarlane looks at who’s in the running.

Tom Mitchell of the Hawks (right) is seen in action during the Round 5 AFL match between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Hawthorn Hawks at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Sunday, April 22, 2018. (AAP Image/Julian Smith) NO ARCHIVING, EDITORIAL USE ONLY

HAWTHORN ball magnet Tom Mitchell might end up the biggest beneficiary if Nat Fyfe and Fremantle can’t beat his one-game suspension, which could prove highly embarrassing for the AFL in what looks like being the most opening, intriguing Brownlow Medal counts in years.

Last year’s Brownlow dinner was a snooze-fest. The year before was pretty much the same.

Not that there was anything wrong with the winners. It’s just that the counts were a fait accompli from the moment Gill McLachlan started calling out votes.

Dustin Martin was a lock long before the halfway mark, as evidenced by Bruce McAvaney stalking him on his table long before he had the medal draped around his neck.

He won by 11 votes to Mitchell in second place, with the previous year’s winner Patrick Dangerfield ineligible, three votes behind the Richmond star.

In 2016 it was Dangerfield first ... daylight second. Well, daylight was Luke Parker, nine votes off.

Fremantle will challenge Nat Fyfe’s one-match ban for striking Collingwood’s Levi Greenwood

Tom Mitchell ($2.75) is the new Brownlow Medal favourite after Nat Fyfe's potential suspension.

Max Gawn is now on the second line of betting at $5 after opening the season at $101!
Jack Macrae & Dustin Martin are on the next line as $7 chances.

Market: https://t.co/kLhOreDN6M pic.twitter.com/JlknI5QKHl

— TAB (@tabcomau) June 4, 2018

This year could be very, very different, and the evenness of the award in the wake of Fyfe’s ban - the Dockers are appealing the suspension - means there could even be multiple winners for the first time in 15 years.

Mitchell is the outright favourite right now - $2.75 with TAB - and deemed extremely fortunate to still be in contention. His behind-play elbow to the head of Kangaroos ruckman Todd Goldstein saw him escape with a $1500 fine.

The Hawks, and Mitchell, couldn’t have paid the fine quickly enough, with many observers incredulous about how he managed to escape a one-game sanction, which would have ended his chances of taking home Charlie.

Incredibly, given what has happened for a generation now, a ruckman is second elect with the punters. Melbourne big man Max Gawn was $101 when betting opened, and $51 before the first match, yet now sits the $5 second favourite to Mitchell.

Tom Mitchell of the Hawks becomes Brownlow favourite if Fyfe’s appeals fails

A ruckman hasn’t won the award sometimes called “the midfielders’ medal” since Bulldog Scott Wynd in 1992.

Gawn has polled only 23 Brownlow votes in his seven seasons, with 16 of them coming in Dangerfield’s winning year.

Martin started the season brilliantly, but has endured a modest streak by his own lofty comparisons in recent matches. Yet he still could become the first player to win back-to-back Brownlows since St Kilda’s Robert Harvey in 1997-98.

Interestingly enough, Harvey won the first of his Brownlow Medals, despite the ineligible Chris Grant polling one more vote. Could that happen again this year, with Fyfe, who had been a clear-cut favourite before his late elbow on Collingwood’s Levi Greenwood last Sunday.

It’s a certain bet to suggest if Martin does win this year’s award - he is $7 now - it won’t be anywhere near the record 36 votes he scored last season.

Max Gawn is now on the second line of betting Pic: Michael Klein

Like Gawn, Bulldog Jack Macrae was $101 before the start of the season. He’s had a sensational season, and is a prolific ball winner, but will the Bulldogs win enough games for him to make him the club’s 11th Brownlow winner?

Carlton’s Patrick Cripps ($17) also has that same asterisk against him, He’s rated a $17 chance, but the Blues have won only won one game, so polling enough three votes might be a real issue.

Trent Cotchin ($13) won’t have that problem. The Richmond skipper is almost back to his 2012 Brownlow-winning form (in influence not necessarily numbers), having started the year at $101, but now rated as a serious chance to become a multiple winner.

Dusty most likely won’t monopolise the Tigers’ votes as he did last season.

Then, there’s Eagle Andrew Gaff, one of the AFL’s most sought-after free agents who might well add the Brownlow Medal to his 2018 CV.

Gaff has been backed from $81 at the start of the season into a $15 chance, and with the Eagles winning all but one game, he could go beyond the 21 votes he polled in Dangerfield’s winning 2016 season.

Nat Fyfe of the Dockers has appealed his one-match ban

Dangerfield, himself, is rated a $26 chance, with his form moderate by his lofty standards. But if he gets on a roll in the second half of the season, he could steamroll the rest of the wide-open race and win it.

Then, there is the Magpies’ pair of Steele Sidebottom and ruckman Brody Grundy (both $26). Sidebottom’s best polling year came last year with 14 votes, but with the Magpies winning more games this year, he will surely poll more with a good second half.

Grundy has only polled nine votes in his six seasons, but has dominant the ruck role for the Pies this year, effectively playing as an extra midfielder.

Robbie Gray ($26), Shaun Higgins ($34), Rory Laird ($34) and Luke Parker ($34) are also in contention.

Imagine the outcry from some if Mitchell wins.

And imagine the speech if Maxy Gawn salutes.

All in all, hang onto your seats, Brownlow night 2018 looks like being a doozy.

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