Brownlow Medal 2016: Who will top the voting at every club?
PATRICK Dangerfield might have the Brownlow in the bag, but there is still value to be found in the individual club betting markets. MARKETS + TIPS FOR EVERY TEAM.
Brownlow
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PATRICK Dangerfield has made betting on this year’s Brownlow Medal winner a non-event. But in the club-by-club races there’s still nuggets for punters to uncover.
Four non-favourites led their club voting last year and six the season before that. JAMIE TATE searches for a value winner in the 2016 count.
BROWNLOW TRACKER: PREVIEW EVERY GAME NOW
ADELAIDE
Herald Sun Player of the Year votes: Rory Sloane 19; Eddie Betts 15; Matt Crouch 11; Rory Laird 9; Daniel Talia 6; Tom Lynch, Rory Atkins, Brad Crouch 4.
Champion Data prediction: Sloane 21; Betts, Scott Thompson 11; Taylor Walker 8; Josh Jenkins 6; B. Crouch, Laird 5; Brodie Smith 4.
TAB club odds (without Sloane): $1.65 Betts; $2.20 Laird; $13 any other player not listed excluding Sloane; $15 M. Crouch, Lynch; $26 Jenkins.
The tip: Thompson has polled double-figure tallies in eight of the past nine Brownlow counts. His disposal numbers are similar again this season and he looms as a smoky in a market without Sloane. Betts is a fan favourite, but not so with the umpires it seems. Seven votes in a season is his most, which he received last year on the back of 58 goals. This year he kicked 66 in the home-and-away rounds.
BRISBANE LIONS
Herald Sun: Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko 5; Daniel Rich 4; Pearce Hanley, Mitch Robinson 3.
Champion Data: Rockliff 9; Zorko 6; Hanley 3; Rich 2.
TAB club odds: $1.40 Rockliff; $2.90 Zorko; $13 Hanley, any other not listed; $15 Rich; $34 Martin.
The tip: Rockliff has led or jointly-led the Lions’ voting in four of the past five seasons. He’s the man to beat again after playing 17 games — reaching 30 or more disposals in 10. Crucially, he had 38 and 39 disposals in wins against Essendon (R18) and Carlton (R21) respectively. He didn’t play in the Round 4 win against Gold Coast.
CARLTON
Herald Sun: Patrick Cripps 17; Bryce Gibbs 14; Ed Curnow 4; Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas, Kade Simpson, Sam Docherty 3.
Champion Data: Gibbs 15; Cripps 12; Simpson 8; Murphy 3; Thomas, Andrejs Everitt 2.
TAB club odds: $1.72 Gibbs; $2.05 Cripps; $17 Simpson; $19 Docherty; $34 any other not listed; $101 E. Curnow.
The tip: Gibbs had similar numbers to this season in 2009 (15 votes) and 2011 (12 votes). His kicking game (320 kicks and 18 goals) looks likely to attract more umpire attention than Cripps’ handball game (176 kicks, 390 handballs, 10 goals). Most of Carlton’s votes will be polled by the end of Round 11.
COLLINGWOOD
Herald Sun: Scott Pendlebury 16; Adam Treloar 15; Steele Sidebottom 10; Ben Reid 5; Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke 3.
Champion Data: Pendlebury 16; Treloar 9; Sidebottom 7; Taylor Adams 6; Josh Smith, Jeremy Howe 3; Fasolo, Cloke, Jack Crisp 2.
TAB club odds: $1.55 Treloar; $2.35 Pendlebury; $11 Sidebottom; $51 Brodie Grundy; $101 Adams, any other not listed.
The tip: Treloar and Pendlebury should be closer together in the market. Little separates them in a number of Collingwood’s nine wins. Pendlebury has posted 13 or more votes in each of the past seven seasons and looks a decent proposition against a rising youngster, who had his best Brownlow last year (7 votes) when GWS won 11 games.
ESSENDON
Herald Sun: Zach Merrett 13; David Zaharakis 7; Joe Daniher 5; Brendon Goddard, Orazio Fantasia 2.
Champion Data: Merrett 10; Zaharakis 5; Daniher 3; Goddard 2.
TAB club odds: $1.13 Merrett; $5.50 Zaharakis; $26 Daniher; $34 any other not listed; $101 Fantasia; $251 Matthew Leuenberger.
The tip: Merrett has only one career Brownlow vote before this season, but that’s about to change in a big way. He should romp in at Essendon. He starred in the Bombers’ three wins, played every round and had 34 or more disposals in six losses. Low teens looks a realistic vote tally for him.
FREMANTLE
Herald Sun: Lachie Neale 14; Michael Barlow 6; Stephen Hill, Nathan Fyfe 4; David Mundy, Matt Taberner 3.
Champion Data: Neale 8; Hill 5; Barlow, Mundy 4; Fyfe 3; Hayden Ballantyne, Lachie Weller 2.
TAB club odds (without Neale): $2.50 Barlow; $4 Fyfe, any other not listed excluding Neale; $5 Hill; $7.50 Mundy; $15 Taberner.
The tip: Neale might post more votes than his teammates combined. Mundy has polled strongly in the past four years but he only played 18 games and his numbers dropped appreciably this season. Fyfe had two strong games (Round 2 and Round 4) out of five before injury stopped his season. It might be enough to get over Barlow, who starred in the win against Port Adelaide (43 disposals, two goals) but had little else that might get votes. Fyfe worth a nibble at $4.
GEELONG
Herald Sun: Patrick Dangerfield 31; Joel Selwood 18; Corey Enright 11; Steven Motlop 9; Harry Taylor 7; Cam Guthrie, Sam Menegola 3.
Champion Data: Dangerfield 38; J. Selwood 21; Motlop 7; Guthrie 5; Jimmy Bartel 4; Enright, Menegola, Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel, Taylor, Zac Smith 3.
TAB club odds: $1.02 Dangerfield; $12 J. Selwood; $51 Motlop; $101 Enright; $251 Guthrie, any other not listed.
The tip: Backing Dangerfield at $1.02 is not worth bothering about. He polled 23 votes (2012), 22, 21 and 22 in the past four years and 30 tomorrow night looks easily within reach.
GOLD COAST
Herald Sun: Tom Lynch 14; Gary Ablett 9; Steven May, Touk Miller 5; Jarrod Harbrow 3.
Champion Data: Aaron Hall 9; Lynch 7; Ablett 6; May 5; Peter Wright, Dion Prestia 3.
TAB club odds: $1.35 Lynch; $3.50 Ablett; $6.50 Hall; $17 Miller; $21 any other not listed; $51 Jack Martin.
The tip: Lynch’s price is short and he hasn’t been a big vote-winner before. Five votes last year when he kicked 43 goals from 20 games is his best. This year he posted 66 goals in 22 matches including four or five goals in five of the Suns’ six wins. Aaron Hall is the wildcard. He was hot when Gold Coast won its first three games.
GWS GIANTS
Herald Sun: Stephen Coniglio 21; Callan Ward 12; Dylan Shiel 9; Heath Shaw 7; Toby Greene, Tom Scully, Ryan Griffen 6; Jonathon Patton 5; Shane Mumford, Steve Johnson 4.
Champion Data: Ward 18; Coniglio 12; Scully 11; Shaw, Shiel 9; Greene 8; Johnson 7; Griffen, Jeremy Cameron 5; Mumford 4.
TAB club odds: $2 Ward; $2.25 Coniglio; $6 Shiel; $13 Shaw; $26 any other not listed; $34 Scully.
The tip: Coniglio has enjoyed a breakout season. Consistency is his strongpoint with 14 games delivering 28-34 disposals each. Ward is a proven vote-winner. He snagged 15 and 19 votes in the past two counts and is the Giant to beat again.
HAWTHORN
Herald Sun: Sam Mitchell 23; Jordan Lewis 9; Josh Gibson 8; Paul Puopolo 6; Jack Gunston, Isaac Smith, Cyril Rioli 5; Shaun Burgoyne 4.
Champion Data: Mitchell 24; Lewis 13; Rioli, Gibson 7; Burgoyne 5; Luke Hodge 4; Smith, Gunston, Luke Breust 3.
TAB club odds: $1.05 Mitchell; $8 Lewis; $34 Rioli; $51 Gibson, any other not listed; $101 Gunston.
The tip: Mitchell wins this in a canter. His great start could see him in double-figures after five rounds have been counted. He’s polled 26 or more votes at three of the past five Brownlows and should finish in the low-20s at worst.
MELBOURNE
Herald Sun: Max Gawn 17; Jack Viney 14; Dom Tyson 8; Jesse Hogan, Bernie Vince 6; Dean Kent, Nathan Jones, Jack Watts 4.
Champion Data: Jones 16; Gawn, Viney, Tyson 9; Vince 7; Hogan, Watts 5; Tomas Bugg 3.
TAB club odds: $1.55 Gawn; $2.60 Viney; $9 Tyson; $13 Jones; $21 any other not listed; $26 Hogan.
The tip: Melbourne offers one of the best value bets. Jones polled 13 votes (2014) and 10 (2015) and produced a similarly strong year again. He’s worth a punt to top the Demons’ voting at $13. Gawn had some massive games, notably against North Melbourne (R3), Richmond (R5), Port Adelaide (R10) and Hawthorn (R20). Everyone loves Max. Question is, do the umpires? He polled four votes in last year’s count, his first Brownlow votes.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Herald Sun: Todd Goldstein 10; Daniel Wells 8; Jarrad Waite, Brent Harvey 7; Jack Ziebell 6; Ben Cunnington, Robbie Tarrant 5.
Champion Data: Goldstein, Harvey 8; Wells 7; Waite, Ziebell, Nick Dal Santo 6; Andrew Swallow 5; Sam Gibson, Ben Brown 4.
TAB club odds: $2.10 Goldstein; $3 Wells; $5.50 Ziebell; $9 any other not listed; $13 Cunnington, Waite.
The tip: Goldstein would want a handy lead after Round 9 as he’s quiet thereafter. Harvey could steal the limelight as he’s done all season. In 2014 he grabbed 15 votes on the back of 515 disposals and 27 goals. This year it was 471 disposals and 36 goals. He carries the ball, is always noticeable. He’s a good smoky.
PORT ADELAIDE
Herald Sun: Robbie Gray 16; Ollie Wines 9; Chad Wingard, Jackson Trengove, Travis Boak 6; Jared Polec 5.
Champion Data: Gray 16; Boak 12; Wines 5; Wingard, Matthew Broadbent 4; Polec, Charlie Dixon, Brad Ebert, Justin Westhoff 3.
TAB club odds: $1.08 Gray; $8 Wines; $21 Boak; $51 Trengove, Wingard, any other not listed.
The tip: Gray has been strong this year, but not as good as last year (13 votes) or 2014 (14 votes). Wines is of interest. He polled three votes in both games in which he reached 30 disposals in 2015 and had six games of 30 or more touches this season. He finishes the year like a bull and should challenge Gray late.
RICHMOND
Herald Sun: Dustin Martin 24; Trent Cotchin 6; Ben Griffiths, Alex Rance 5; Brett Deledio, Jack Riewoldt 3.
Champion Data: Martin 21; Cotchin 14; Anthony Miles, Shaun Grigg 3; Rance, Riewoldt, Deledio, Bachar Houli 2.
TAB club odds (without Martin): $1.28 Cotchin; $3.50 Rance; $17 Deledio, Griffiths; $26 any other not listed excluding Martin; $34 Riewoldt.
The tip: Cotchin led the Tigers’ voting in each year from 2011-14 before being overtaken by Martin last season (21 votes to 17). The Richmond captain is a lock to win the market without Martin.
ST KILDA
Herald Sun: Jack Steven 21; Nick Riewoldt 12; Leigh Montagna 10; Seb Ross 9; David Armitage 8; Tim Membrey, Jack Newnes 3.
Champion Data: Steven 16; Riewoldt 11; Montagna 10; Membrey 7; Ross, Armitage 6.
TAB club odds: $1.08 Steven; $8 Riewoldt; $21 Montagna; $34 Ross; $51 Armitage; $101 any other not listed.
The tip: Steven polled a career-high 12 votes last year and has arguably just finished his best season. He’ll win this comfortably despite being a little quiet in the final five rounds. Membrey, full of tattoos and four five-goal games, could surprise but he won’t catch Steven.
SYDNEY
Herald Sun: Luke Parker 22; Dan Hannebery 18; Josh Kennedy 16; Lance Franklin 16; Tom Mitchell 8; Isaac Heeney 5; Kurt Tippett 4.
Champion Data: Hannebery 24; Kennedy 22; Parker 14; Mitchell 11; Franklin 9; Kieren Jack 5; Heeney 4.
TAB club odds: $1.65 Parker; $2.50 Hannebery; $9 Franklin, Kennedy; $51 Mitchell; $101 any player not listed.
The tip: If the umps fall in love with one Sydney midfielder, he could be the biggest threat to Dangerfield. Parker is a gun, but has barely fired a shot on Brownlow night (12 votes his best in 2014). Kennedy is the one. He finished fourth last year (25 votes) and equal fifth in 2014 (21 votes). His numbers are big again. Get on him to lead the Swans.
WEST COAST
Herald Sun: Matt Priddis 17; Josh Kennedy 17; Luke Shuey 14; Andrew Gaff 11; Mark LeCras, Nic Naitanui 6; Chris Masten 3.
Champion Data: Priddis 19; Shuey 17; Gaff, Kennedy 14; LeCras, Naitanui 5; Masten, Elliot Yeo 4; Scott Lycett 3.
TAB club odds: $1.80 Shuey; $2.10 Priddis; $9 Kennedy; $11 Gaff; $101 LeCras, any other not listed.
The tip: Here it’s Priddis — Brownlow winner and runner-up in past two years — against Shuey, who has a best of 12 votes in 2011. Kennedy has earned three votes in five matches in the past two seasons and has kicked six goals or more in all those games. He had three seven-goal-or-more games this year. Maybe Priddis wins, just.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Herald Sun: Marcus Bontempelli 19; Lachie Hunter 15; Jason Johannisen 9; Luke Dahlhaus 7; Jake Stringer, Koby Stevens 6; Matthew Boyd 5; Liam Picken 4.
Champion Data: Bontempelli 22; Hunter 10; M. Boyd, Dahlhaus 9; Johannisen 6; Jack Macrae 5; Mitch Wallis 4; Stevens, Tom Liberatore 3.
TAB club odds (without Bontempelli): $1.30 Hunter; $7 Johannisen; $9 M. Boyd, Dahlhaus; $13 Stevens; $21 any other not listed.
The tip: Hunter is a star. He had only polled two votes before this season, but his breakout year has him poised to be the best Bulldog behind Bontempelli. Hunter jumped from four 30-plus disposal games in 2015 to nine this year. Matthew Boyd has been an umpire favourite, was All-Australian this year and might be worth a dabble at $9.
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