Brownlow Medal 2015: Can anyone beat Nat Fyfe? expert tips for the AFL’s night of nights
WHO will walk away with the Brownlow Medal as the league’s best and fairest player? Our betting expert Michael Manley looks at all the best bets.
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THE AFL’s night of nights is here.
Who will walk away with the prestigious Charles Brownlow Medal as the league’s best and fairest player?
Our betting expert Michael Manley looks at all the angles and delivers his tips.
THE FAVOURITE
TEN weeks ago the football world considered it a formality the Brownlow Medal would be draped around Nathan Fyfe’s neck tonight.
The Fremantle on-baller had got into a record low price at Round 14 with the TAB of $1.40,
Since then though Fyfe battled injuries, missed four games and moderate form and with TAB has drifted out to $1.95.
INTERACTIVE BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR
TAB’s Shaun Anderson said they expected Fyfe to have a massive lead and then it would be a matter of whether he could hang on.
“Overall we have him winning by at least four votes, so getting close to even money looks a good bet, but we will really know by half way if he has it won or not,” Anderson said.
Fyfe opened the season at $8. Even after Round 5 he had shortened into $3 and just continued to firm each round until Round 14.
THE RUCKMAN
PUNTERS believe Todd Goldstein can defy recent history and strike a blow for the ruckman in tonight’s Brownlow Medal.
“He’s our second worst result. He was $21 in round 15 when Fyfe got into his lowest price of $1.40 and he’s now $9,” said TAB’s Shaun Anderson.
In recent years, the only ruckman to have won a Brownlow was Adam Goodes in 2003 when he arguably played as a ruck rover.
If Goldstein won he would be the first traditional ruckman to win since Footscray’s Scott Wynd in 1992.
Goldstein polled only three votes last year.
One punter speculated with $100 at odds of $1001 at the start of the year for a win tonight of $100,000.
LAST YEAR’S WINNER
Last year’s winner West Coast Eagles’ Matt Priddis is the second favourite and is considered to have had a better season than last year but punters are lukewarm on his chances
“Punters don’t seem to be convinced though he can win. Dangerfield, Goldstein and Hannebery have been better backed than Priddis,” TAB’s Shaun Anderson said.
Priddis has firmed in recent weeks from $11 in Round 10 to $4.50 second favourite.
PERENNIAL PERFORMER
Despite occasionally testing their patience, Hawthorn star on-baller Sam Mitchell is a favourite of the umpires when it comes to Brownlow votes.
Just to illustrate this Mitchell needs only 22 votes to catapult him to 200 Brownlow votes in his career which would place him in the top six vote-getters of all time.
He has also finished second twice in 2011 with 30 votes behind Dane Swan and then again in 2012 when he finished equal second with 26 votes behind Jobe Watson.
Presently he is equal ninth in all time Brownlow voting.
Mitchell, who has had a great season, opened the season at $21, and got out to $34 after Round 5 before he started to firm in.
“He’s another who has been a massive mover. He was $15 at the end of the season but has been well supported and is in to $11,” Anderson said.
THE BOLTER
Anderson pointed out that the Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli has also been the subject of strong support.
The stylish Bulldogs began the season in great form but then had a flat patch before finishing off strongly.
“He is still big odds at $101 but punters jumped on at the start of the year when he was $251 and have come again at the back end of the year with his performances in the last 6 weeks of the year,” he said.
THE LATE MOVER
Former Adelaide Crows star Patrick Dangerfield has garnered late support from punters.
His brilliant end to the season saw him firm from $34 in Round 16 to $6 third favourite.
“He has been the big mover in the late part of the season, he was $34 in Round 16 and is now $6,” Anderson said.
Dangerfield regularly polls well in Brownlow having polled more than 20 votes in the past three seasons having polled 23 in 2012 to finish seventh, 22 votes in 2013 to finish fifth and 21 votes last year for the same position.
THE MONEY TRAIL
Anderson said the player punters have rallied to in recent weeks has been Sydney on-baller Dan Hannebery.
“Dan Hannebery has been one who has flown under the radar all year, but punters have warmed to him over the last month. He is actually now even better backed than Matt Priddis and has been one of the big movers after opening at $34 in Round 1.”
THE BETTING
$1.95 Nat Fyfe
$4.50 Matt Priddis
$6 Patrick Dangerfield
$9 Todd Goldstein
$11 Sam Mitchell, Daniel Hannebery
$17 Josh Kennedy (Syd), Andrew Gaff
$26 David Mundy
$34 Scott Pendlebury
$41 Dustin Martin
$51 Dane Swan, Robbie Gray
$67 Travis Boak, Trent Cotchin, David Armitage
$81 Lachie Neale
$101 Marcus Bontempelli, Nathan Jones, Brandon Ellis, Scott Thompson
THE FLUCTUATIONS
Open - Longest - Shortest - Now
Fyfe: $8 $8 $1.40 $1.95
Priddis: $17 $34 $4 $4.50
Dangerfield: $11 $34 $6 $6
Goldstein: $1001 $1001 $5 $9
Mitchell: $21 $34 $9 $11
Hannebery: $26 $34 $9 $11
BIG BETS
$10,000 @ $1.70 Nat Fyfe (June 25)
$5000 @ $6 Nat Fyfe (April 12)
$2000 @ $9 Daniel Hannebery (Aug 6)
$1878 @ $10 Alex Rance PLACE (July 12)
$1500 @ $11 Todd Goldstein (July 21)
$1500 e/w @ $11 Daniel Hannebery (Sep 7)
BIG POTENTIAL COLLECTS
$100 @ $1001 on Todd Golstein to win $100,000
$200 @ $251 Marcus Bontempelli to collect $50,200
$100 e/w @ $1001 Nic Naitanui to collect $125,200
$90 e/w @ $501/$126 Marcus Bontempelli to collect $60,180
$50 e/w @ $1001/$251 Alex Rance to collect $62,600
$45 @ $2501 Alex Rance to collect $112,545
TOP AT YOUR CLUB
Adelaide (Dangerfield out)
$1.40 Scott Thompson
$5.50 Sam Jacobs
Brisbane
$1.25 Dayne Beams
$4 Stefan Martin
Carlton
$1.35 Marc Murphy
$3.05 Patrick Cripps
Collingwood
$1.17 Scott Pendlebury
$4.50 Dane Swan
Essendon
$1.75 Dyson Heppell
$5 Michael Hurley
Fremantle (Fyfe out)
$1.20 David Mundy
$4.25 Lachie Neale
GWS
$2.50 Dylan Shiel
$2.60 Callan Ward
Geelong
$1.22 Joel Selwood
$4.25 Steven Motlop
Gold Coast
$3.75 Charlie Dixon
$3.75 Tom Lynch
Hawthorn
$1.04 Sam Mitchell
$9 Luke Hodge
Melbourne
$1.75 Bernie Vince
$2 Nathan Jones
North Melbourne (Goldstein out)
$2.75 Jack Ziebell
$3 Shaun Higgins
Port Adelaide
$1.70 Robbie Gray
$2.15 Travis Boak
Richmond
$2.50 Trent Cotchin
$2.50 Dustin Martin
St Kilda
$1.05 David Armitage
$8.50 Jack Steven
Sydney
$1.30 Daniel Hannebery
$3.30 Josh Kennedy
West Coast
$1.14 Matt Priddis
$5 Andrew Gaff
Western Bulldogs
$2.50 Marcus Bontempelli
$2.75 Mitch Wallis
All odds: TAB
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