Bailey Smith could become Geelong’s new million dollar man, Brownlow tracker revealed

Go inside Bailey Smith’s incentive-laden Geelong contract here — and see where the star Cat and others rank on Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal tracker.

Bailey Smith will become Geelong’s new million dollar man by collecting the All Australian-Carji Greeves Medal double with an incentive-laden contract rewarding peak performance.

But Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal tracker has the dashing Geelong star only third behind Nick Daicos and Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson despite his Brownlow favouritism.

Smith is the $3.50 Brownlow favourite ahead of Daicos ($4.50) and Dawson ($5) after a pulsating start to the season as Geelong’s newest midfield star.

He surged past Noah Anderson to lead the AFLCA vote tally with 59 votes after polling nine coaches votes in his 38-possession game against West Coast.

Bailey Smith and Nick Daicos are two of the contenders for the Brownlow. Picture: Michael Klein

The Herald Sun understands Smith moved to the Cats on a six-year deal of around $900,000, in a contract that rewarded his potential but also allowed Geelong to continue its record of prudent cap management.

Most players on less than $1 million per season have best-and-fairest, All Australian and even games-based triggers to ensure their upside is protected.

Those incentives can be as much as $50,000 for winning the best and fairest ($40,000 for second, $30,000 for third) and $50,000 for All Australian.

They are all negotiated individually given some positional types are not Brownlow Medal pollers, but Smith has protection as well as many of the normal CBA rises factored in.

Bailey Smith has been brilliant for Geelong

It means he might tip over into the million dollar category if he can keep up his hot pace.

No players have Brownlow Medal incentives because of the rarity of collecting the game’s biggest individual trophy but the acclaim and profile from that award is also hugely lucrative.

Smith would not care about the quibbling over his disposal efficiency given he will be happy the focus in recent weeks has turned from his off-field controversies to his on-field habits.

He has worked exceptionally hard on his game and it is paying off at Geelong after so much attention to his life away from football.

Champion Data’s Brownlow tracker tipped the Patrick Cripps-Nick Daicos quinella like many last year and takes into account voting patterns, consistency, ball use and Brownlow history.

Daicos, who has played every game, has 17.9 votes based on that formula ahead of Dawson (13.3), Smith (12.7 from 11 games), Andrew Brayshaw (12.3) and dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale (11.3).

Smith has been criticised for his lack of impact with ball in hand but Champion Data stats show that there are many categories where he breaks even or even excels.

While he ranks sixth in the AFL for turnovers he leads the competition in disposals.

And the Brownlow Medal has always been an award where umpires can reward eye-catching midfielders who are often under their eyes at stoppages.

His kick rating shows that he is trying to pull off high-degree-of-difficulty kicks – the sixth hardest kicks of the 138 players to record over 100 kicks.

That kick rating is down only 0.7 on the competition average and of all midfielders in the game he ranks 12th for rating points generated through ball use.

A player who has not had less than 550 metres gained in any game this year has the sixth-best retention rate of the top 50 players for kicks inside 50.

He is benefiting from an efficient forward line full of stars but last month he was the No. 1 player in the competition for direct score assists (a total of 11).

In that month he has averaged 34 possessions, 762 metres gained and nine score involvements.

Smith is in hot form. Picture: Getty Images

So while he is not in Champion Data’s top five players, he is clearly kicking the ball well enough to win the Brownlow Medal.

Only West Coast’s Brady Hough and Port Adelaide’s Willem Drew have put real time into Smith in his first 11 games, which could change in coming weeks given his form.

But coach Chris Scott couldn’t be happier with his hot start to the season that has also included lashings of controversy for the ex-Bulldog.

“He just kept getting the ball early,” he said of his 15 possessions in the first quarter in the win over West Coast.

“He and (Max) Holmes were really penetrating and we weren’t as effective going into their forward half as we would like to be. I thought he was terrific

“I am not the best person to ask straight after the game about individuals. I need a bit of time to analyse it, but even I knew he had 18 touches early in the second quarter and I think touches are over rated. If I know then everyone knows.